Predictability of Flood Disasters; Prediction Sample of Floods in Gümüşhane Province Using Different Methods

Year 2024, Volume: 11 Issue: 23, 248 - 264, 31.08.2024

Ufuk Yükseler , Ömerul Faruk Dursun

https://doi.org/10.54365/adyumbd.1420098

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Flood hazard is a disaster that occurs frequently in our country and has a high cost of loss of life and property. The Black Sea region is the region most exposed to floods in our country. For this reason, in this study, 4 major floods that occurred in 1972, 1974, 2004 and 2017 in Gümüşhane Province, which is within the borders of the Black Sea region, were tried to be predicted by TOPSİS, Frequency Ratio and Entropy methods. Within the scope of the study, basin-based risk maps of the methods were prepared by using 9 parameters affecting floods. Information regarding the flood-affected areas was obtained from Public Institutions and point data was extracted in proportion to their areas. These point data were compared with the risk maps of the methods. The accuracy values of the methods were determined with 4 verification methods.
As a result of the study, while the parameters affecting floods were mostly determined as elevation and precipitation, this situation differed in some basins and methods. It was determined that the Frequency Ratio and Entropy method risk maps gave results compatible with the real situation, while the compatibility of the TOPSİS method was lower. The Frequency Ratio method had the highest accuracy values. This is because the Frequency Ratio method creates an algorithm as a result of watershed learning.

Keywords

Flood, Geographic information systems, Frequency Ratio, Entropy, TOPSİS, Gümüşhane Province, Hazard, Multi-Criteria Decision Making Methods, Arc-GIS

Project Number

proje no: FDK-2022-2796

Taşkın Afetlerinin Önceden Tahmin Edilebilirliği; Gümüşhane İlinde Yaşanan Afetlerinin Farklı Yöntemlerle Tahmin Örneklemi

Abstract

Taşkın afeti ülkemizde sıklıkla yaşanan, can ve mal kaybı bilançosu yüksek olan bir afettir. Karadeniz bölgesi ülkemizde en fazla taşkına maruz kalan bölgedir. Bu nedenle bu çalışmada Karadeniz bölgesinin sınırları içerisinde kalan Gümüşhane İlinde 1972, 1974, 2004 ve 2017 yıllarında yaşanan 4 büyük afet TOPSİS, Frekans Oran ve Entropi yöntemiyle tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışma kapsamında 9 adet taşkına etki eden parametre kullanılarak risk haritaları çıkarılmıştır. Kurumlarından elde edilen veriler alan oranında noktasal veri çıkarılmıştır. Çıkarılan bu noktasal veriler yöntemlerin risk haritaları ile karşılaştırılmıştır. 4 adet doğrulama metodu ile yöntemlerin doğruluk değerleri tespit edilmiştir.
Çalışma sonucunda taşkına etkili parametreler çoğunlukla yükselti ve yağış olarak belirlenirken bazı havza ve metotlarda bu durum farklılık göstermiştir. Frekans Oran ve Entropi metodu risk haritalarının gerçekle uyumlu sonuçlar verdiği, TOPSİS metodunun ise uyumunun daha düşük olduğu belirlenmiştir. Frekans Oran metodu en yüksek doğruluk değerlerine sahip olmuştur. Bunun nedeni, Frekans Oran metodunun havza öğrenimi sonucu algoritma oluşturmasıdır.

Keywords

Taşkın, Coğrafi bilgi sistemleri, Frekans Oran, Entropi, TOPSİS, Gümüşhane ili, Afet, Çok Kriterli Karar Verme Yöntemleri, ArcGIS

Supporting Institution

İnönü Üniversitesi Bilimsel Araştırma Projeleri Birimi Araştırma Fonu

Project Number

proje no: FDK-2022-2796

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