Güney Çin Denizi: Ekonomik ve Stratejik Rekabeti Anlamak

Year 2022, Volume: 24 Issue: 1, 97 - 122, 27.04.2022

Kerem Gökten

Abstract

Soğuk Savaş’ın sona erişinin ardından ortaya çıkan tek kutuplu dünya düzeninin sona erdiğini ve sistemin çok kutupluluğa doğru evrildiğini ileri süren değerlendirmeler yaygınlaşmaktadır. Liberal dünya düzeninde çözüm bekleyen küresel sorunlar tek bir devletin düzenleme kapasitesini aşmış, bununla birlikte mevcut uluslararası kurumlar kendilerini 21. yüzyılın koşullarına uyarlama sürecini tamamlayamamıştır. Çalışmanın konusu olan Güney Çin Denizi sorunu, küresel ve bölgesel güçlerin çıkarlarının iç içe geçtiği, karmaşık bir sorun alanı olarak kendini göstermektedir. Makalede sorunun başlıca tarafları olan ülkeler arasındaki iktisadi ve politik güç asimetrisi ortaya konmaya çalışılmıştır. Bunun yanı sıra Güney Çin Denizi, Çin ile ABD arasındaki büyük güç rekabetinin en somut biçimde gözlemlendiği bir coğrafyadır. Güney Çin Denizi, Çin için doğal bir savunma kalkanıdır. ABD ise Soğuk Savaş’tan bugüne varlık gösterdiği Batı Pasifik bölgesindeki hegemonik konumundan taviz vermek istememektedir. Güney Çin Denizi sorununun küreselleşmesine doğrudan etkide bulunan ABD ile dünya kapitalist ekonomisinde güç kazanan Çin arasında gerilen ilişkiler kısa sürede onarılacağa benzememektedir. Çalışmada Çin’in, Güney Çin Denizi sorununa yaklaşımının geleneksel jeopolitik değerlendirmelerin aksine çatışmacı olmayacağı, ülkenin sıkı sıkıya eklemlendiği liberal dünya düzenine karşı sorumlu bir davranış içinde bulunacağı görüşü ileri sürülmektedir.

Keywords

Güney Çin Denizi, Çin-ABD rekabeti, Asya-Pasifik, güç transferi

The South China Sea: Understanding Economic and Strategic Competition

Abstract

The assessments claiming that the unipolar world order that emerged after the Cold War has ended and the system has evolved towards multipolarity is becoming popular. The global problems awaiting solutions in the liberal world order have exceeded the regulatory capacity of a single state, however, existing international institutions could not effectively adapt themselves to 21st-century conditions. The South China Sea dispute, which is the subject of the study, manifests itself as a complex problem area where the interests of global and regional powers are intertwined. This study attempts to reveal the economic and political power asymmetry between the countries that are the major claimants to the dispute. In addition, the South China Sea is a geography where the great power competition between China and the USA is observed in the most concrete way. The South China Sea is a natural defensive shield for China. The USA, on the other hand, does not want to compromise its hegemonic position in the Western Pacific region, where it has existed since the Cold War.The relations between the USA, which has a direct impact on the globalization of the SCS problem, and China, which has gained power in the world capitalist economy, do not seem to be recovered in a short time. In the study, it is argued that China’s approach to the SCS problem will not be confrontational, contrary to conventional geopolitical evaluations, and will act responsibly against the liberal world order in which the country is strongly integrated.

Keywords

The South China Sea, China-US competition, Asia-Pacific, power transfer

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