Oyun Teorisi Açısından Türkiye Gözünden Finlandiya ve İsveç’in NATO’ya Üyelik Süreci

Year 2024, Volume: 24 Issue: 3, 583 - 592, 27.06.2024

Murat Özkaya , Yücel Baştan , Burhaneddin İzgi

https://doi.org/10.35414/akufemubid.1384356

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, İsveç ve Finlandiya’nın NATO üyelik başvurularının Türkiye tarafından onaylanma sürecini belirsizlik altında 3-boyutlu (3B) karar verme kriterlerini kullanarak inceledik. İlk olarak İsveç ve Finlandiya ile Türkiye’nin ilişkisini dış politika analizlerinde öne çıkan üç ana boyut politik, ekonomik ve askeri ve her bir ana boyutun üçer alt boyutunu göz önünde bulundurarak ele aldık. Daha sonra bu ilişkilerin Türkiye açısında önem derecelerini önem derecesi ölçeği kullanarak sıraladık ve bu sıralamalara uygun temsili değerler atayarak her bir boyut için 3-boyutlu getiri matrisleri oluşturulmuştur. Son olarak, belirsizlik altında 3-boyutlu karar verme kriterleri olan 3B Laplace kriteri, 3B Wald kriteri, 3B Hurwicz kriteri ve 3B Savage kriteri ile analizleri yaptık. 3Bkarar verme kriterlerinin kullanılmasının en büyük avantajı İsveç ve Finlandiya’nın politik, ekonomik ve askeri etkilerinin karar süreci üzerindeki etkilerini eş zamanlı incelemeye imkan vermesidir. Bu açıdan, bu çalışma belirsizlik altında 3B karar verme kriterlerinin uygulamasının yapıldığı ilk çalışma olması nedeniyle önem taşımaktadır. Game theory; 3D decision criteria; 3D matrices; International relations; International security; NATO

Keywords

Oyun teorisi, 3B karar kriterleri, 3B matrisler, Uluslararası ilişkiler, Uluslararası güvenlik, Nato

The Accession Process of Finland and Sweden to NATO by Türkiye’s Perspective from the Point of Game Theory

Abstract

In this study, we investigate the approval process of Sweden and Finland's NATO membership applications by Turkey using 3-dimensional (3D) decision-making criteria under uncertainty. First, we consider Turkey's relationship with Sweden and Finland by considering the three main dimensions that come to the fore in foreign policy analyzes as political, economic and military, and three sub-dimensions of each main dimension. Then, we rank the importance of these relations for Turkey using the importance scale, and we create 3-dimensional payoff matrices for each dimension by assigning appropriate representative values to these rankings. Finally, we analyze the 3-dimensional decision making criteria under uncertainty with 3D Laplace criterion, 3D Wald criterion, 3D Hurwicz criterion and 3D Savage criterion. The most adventageous part of using 3D decision criteria is that it allows simultaneous examination of the effects of the political, economic and military influences of Sweden and Finland on the decision process. In this respect, this study is important because it is the first study in which the application of 3D decision-making criteria under uncertainty.

Keywords

Game theory, 3D decision criteria, 3D matrices, International relations, International security, Nato

References

• Allan, P. ve Dupont, P. C. 1999. International Relation Theory and Game Theory: Baroque Modeling Choices and Empirical Robustness. International Political Science Review, 20 (1), 23-47 https://doi.org/10.1177/0192512199201002
• Aumann, R. ve Schelling, T. 2005, Contributions to game theory: Analysis of conflict and cooperation. Nobel Prize in Economics Documents, 2005-1.
• Bağbaşlıoğlu A., 2022. Implications of NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept on its Enlargement and Partnership Policies and Türkiye’s Position: Challenges and Opportunities /Stratejik Araştırmalar Merkezi. SAM Papers, 22. Bauch ,C.T. ve Earn, D. J. D. 2004. Vaccination and the theory of games, PNAS September 7, 101(36), 13391–13394. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0403823101
• Bigdeli, H., Hassanpour, H. ve Tayyebi, J. 2018. Constrained bimatrix games with fuzzy goals and its application in nuclear negotiations, Iranian J. Numer. Anal.Optim., 8 (1), 81–110. https://doi.org/10.22067/ijnao.v8i1.55385
• Binmore, K. 2009, Rational decisions, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Correa, H. 2001. Game theory as an instrument for the analysis of international relations. Ritsumeikan Annual Review of International Studies, 14(2), 187-208.
• Çolak, K ve Koç, A. Ş. 2016, Grev Tehdidi Olmaksızın Yapılan Toplu Pazarlıklarda Oyun Teorisi Analizi. Political Economy of Taxation, 195.
• Diesen, G. 2015. EU and NATO relations with Russia: After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Routledge. Finus, M. 2000. Game theory and international environmental cooperation: A survey with an application to the Kyoto-Protocol, Nota di Lavoro, 86, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano.
• Fishburn, P. 1970, Utility theory for decision making, Newyork, Wiley.
• Gao, L. ve Wang, X. 2019. Healthcare supply chain network coordination through medical insurance strategies with reference price effect. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16(18), 3479. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16183479
• Gilboa, I. 2010, Rational choice, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
• Haywood Jr, O. G. 1954. Military decision and game theory. Journal of the Operations Research Society of America, 2(4), 365-385.
• Harsanyi, J. C. 1967, Games with Incomplete Information Played by 'Bayesian' Players, I-III, Management Science, 14(3), 159-182.
• Hazell, P.B.R. 1970. Game Theory‐An Extension of its Application To Farm Planning Under Uncertainty. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 21(2), 239-252. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-9552.1970.tb02034.x
• Hudson, V. M., ve Vore, C. S. 1995. Foreign Policy Analysis Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow. Mershon International Studies Review, 39 (Supplement_2), 209-238. https://doi.org/10.2307/222751
• İzgi, B. ve Özkaya, M. 2020. Tarım sigortası gerekliliğinin oyun teorisi yardımıyla gösterilmesi: Matris norm yaklaşımı. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Fen Ve Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 20(5), 824-831. https://doi.org/10.35414/akufemubid.677349
• İzgi, B., Özkaya, M., Üre, N. K. ve Perc, M. 2023. Machine learning driven extended matrix norm method for the solution of large-scale zero-sum matrix games. Journal of Computational Science, 68, 101997. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocs.2023.101997
• İzgi, B., & Özkaya, M. (2019). A new perspective to the solution and creation of zero sum matrix game with matrix norms. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 341, 148-159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2018.08.013
• Jeffrey, R. 1990, The logic of decision, 2. Ed. Chicago: Unversity of Chicago Press. Keller, J. V. 2022. Game theory without theory: Interactive choice in pigeons, humans and machines. Learning and Motivation, 77, 101784. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lmot.2022.101784
• Kreps, D., 1988, Notes on the theory of choice, CO: Westview. Luce, R. D. Ve Raiffa, H. 1957, Games and Decisions. Newyork, Wiley. Madani, K. 2010. Game theory and water resources. J. Hydrol., 381(3-4), 225-238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.11.045
• Maynard-Smith, J. M. ve Price, G. R. 1973. The logic of animal conflict. Nature, 246(5427), 15-18. https://doi.org/10.1038/246015a0
• Monaghan, S. (2023) Solving Europe’s Defense Dilemma. CSIS Briefs. Nanduri, V. ve Das, T. K. 2007. A reinforcement learning model to assess market power under auction-based energy pricing, IEEE Trans. Power Syst., 22 (1), 85–95. https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2006.888977
• Nash, J. F. 1950a. The Bargaining Problem. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 18(2), 155-162. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907266
• Nash, J. F. 1950b. Equilibrium points in n-person games. Proceedings of the National Academiy of Science, 36(1), 48-49. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.36.1.48
• Nash, J. F. 1951. Noncooperative games. Annals of Mathematics, 54, 289-295. https://doi.org/10.2307/1969529
• Nash, J. F. 1953. Two-person cooperative games. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society,21, 128-140. https://doi.org/10.2307/1906951
• Nowé, A., Vrancx, P. ve Hauwere, Y.M.D. 2012. Game theory and multi-agent reinforcement learning, in: Reinforcement Learning, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 441–470. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-27645-3_14
• Okura, M. 2007. Competitive Strategies of Approach. International Studies of Management & Organization, 27(2), 53-69. https://doi.org/10.2753/IMO0020-8825370203
• Özer, O. O. 2015, Determining the best sales time period for dried figs: a game theory application. Journal of International Food & Agribusiness Marketing, 27(2), 91-99. https://doi.org/10.1080/08974438.2014.897665
• Özkaya, M. ve İzgi, B. 2021. Uluslararası Bir Krizin Oyun Teorisi ile Matematiksel Olarak Modellenmesi. Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 10(4), 1334-1341. https://doi.org/10.17798/bitlisfen.942655
• Özkaya, M. ve Bakkaloğlu, A. 2023. Askeri Açıdan Denk Olmayan İki Ülke Savaşının Oyun Teorisi ile Modellenmesi. Journal of Advanced Research in Natural and Applied Sciences , 9(2), 268-275. https://doi.org/10.28979/jarnas.1204904
• Özkaya, M., İzgi, B. ve Perc, M. 2022. Axioms of Decision Criteria for 3D Matrix Games and Their Applications. Mathematics, 10(23), 4524. https://doi.org/10.3390/math10234524
• Pataki, B. 1996. A critique of some classical theories of decision under uncertainty. Period. Polytech. Soc. Manag., 4, 79–92.
• Rass, S., König, S., ve Schauer, S. 2017. Defending against advanced persistent threats using game theory. PLOS ONE, 12(1), e0168657. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0168675
• Shapley, L. S. 1953, A Value for n-Person Games. Contributions to the Theory of Games, 2, 307–317. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400881970-018
• Sanchez-Soriano, J. 2013. An overview on game theory applications to engineering, Int. Game Theory Rev., 15 (3), 1340019. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219198913400197
• Steven, B. H. 1961, An application of game theory to a problem in location strategy. Papers in Regional Science, 7(1), 143-157. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5597.1961.tb01776.x
• Von Neumann, J. 1928. Zur theorie der gesellschaftsspiele. Mathematische annalen, 100(1), 295-320. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01448847
• Von Neumann, J. ve Morgenstern, O. 1944. Theory of games and economic behavior, Princeton University Press. Vincent, T. L. 1983, Game theory as a design tool, J. Mech., Trans, and Automation, 105(2), 165-170. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.3258503
• Weibull, J. W. Evolutionary game theory. MIT press, 1997. ANKASAM.2024. https://www.ankasam.org/abd-ingiltere-ve-avustralya-aukusun-ikinci-sutunu-cercevesinde-japonyayla-isbirligi-yapmayi-degerlendiriyor/ (17.04.2024)
• BBC News Türkçe. 2023. https://www.bbc.com/turkce/articles/c4n8yrny r1po (26.06.2023)
• BBC News Türkçe. 2024. https://www.bbc.com/turkce/articles/cyrzgd3r7epo (15.04.2024)
• Euronews. 2022. https://tr.euronews.com/2022/09/30/isvec-turkiyeye-silah-satisina-yeniden-izin-verdi (25.06.2023)
• Euronews. 2023. https://tr.euronews.com/2023/01/23/finlandiya-ekim-ayinda-turkiyenin-istedigi-bir-kisiyi-daha-iade-etti (24.06.2023)
• Finland Abroad. 2023 (t.y.). https://finlandabroad.fi/web/tur/current-affairs/-/asset_publisher/h5w4iTUJhNne/content/finland-t%25C3%25BCrkiye-trade-hits-record-highs-for-second-year-running-in-2022/384951 (29.06.2023)
• Financial Times. 2022. https://www.ft.com/content/cf154d42-d324-40a9-8478-9f59bee053b5 (29.06.2023)
• Global Fire, (2024b). https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php (29.02.2024)
• Global Fire. 2024a, https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php (29.02.2024)
• Levin P.. (t.y) https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/03/the-turkish-veto-why-erdogan-is-blocking-finland-and-swedens-path-to-nato/ (28.05.2023)
• NATO.2020. https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/12/pdf/201201-Reflection-Group-Final-Report-Uni.pdf (17.04.2024)
• Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty. (t.y.). https://www.rferl.org/a/finland-nato-survey-membership/32145117.html (16.05.2023)
• Resmi Gazete, 20 Ocak 2024 Tarihli ve 3241 Sayılı, https://www.resmigazete.gov.tr/fihrist?tarih=2024-01-26 (17.04.2024)
• Savunma Sanayi ST. 2023. https://www.savunmasanayist.com/turkiyeden-abdli-senatorlere-f-16-tedarikinde-isvec-resti/ (20.07.2023)
• TBMM, 2023. https://www.tbmm.gov.tr/Haber/Detay?Id=a067a845-d174-4a0e-bd27-01870ef52307 (16.05.2023)
• T.C. Ticaret Bakanlığı Uluslararası Anlaşmalar ve Avrupa Birliği Genel Müdürlüğü, 2022, https://ticaret.gov.tr/data/5ef6018613b8762b38e2fe7e/F%C4%B0NLAND%C4%B0YA-%C3%9Clke%20Profili_2023.pdf (25.06.2023)
• T.C. Ticaret Bakanlığı Uluslararası Anlaşmalar ve Avrupa Birliği Genel Müdürlüğü, 2022, https://ticaret.gov.tr/data/ (26.06.2023)
• TRT Haber, 2023. https://www.trthaber.com/haber/dunya/isvecte-yeni-terorle-mucadele-ceza-yasasi-ileri-bir-tarihte-parlamentoda-oylanacak-751781.html (14.07.2023)
• Twitter. 2023. https://twitter.com/TobiasBillstrom/status/1616838480545386496 (15.07.2023)
• VOA, 2023. https://www.voaturkce.com/a/a-17-2010-03-11-voa12-88927152/882487.html (19.07.2023)
• Yle, 2023. https://yle.fi/a/74-20020423 (20.07.2023)
• Kokoomus.Fi. 2023. https://www.kokoomus.fi/nationalcoalition-party-election-program/?lang=en (16.06.2023)