A Comparative Analysis in Turkey on Market Timing Theory

Year 2021, Volume: 23 Issue: 1, 139 - 157, 29.03.2021

Göknur Büyükkara

https://doi.org/10.32709/akusosbil.604617

Abstract

This study compares the results with previous results of Turkey and other countries by testing the market timing theory of capital structure for 2010-2018 period. In this study particularly following the findings of Umutlu’s (2008a, 2008b) results, the results previously found are compared with the findings of this study. In the first step of this study, classical ordinary least-squares (OLS) are applied for two-years period after initial public offerings (IPOs) separately; thereafter in the second step panel data tests are done to all firms. Contrary to expectations of market timing, the results found shows that market-to-book (M/B) ratio affect the change in leverage ratio positively. Accordingly, firms in Turkey after 2010 increase debt ratios when M/B ratios increases agreeably to the pecking-order theorem like before in 2010. Especially firms with greater tangible assets could take more debt. After IPOs, profitable and large-sized firms turn equity financing. Findings of literature indicate that market timing theory is not only invalid in emerging countries like Turkey generally but also generally invalid in developed countries like America and England. In some developed countries, M/B ratios create persistent negative effects on change in leverage according to market timing theory. However, in Turkey, it is observed that M/B ratios doesn't create negative and persistent effect on the change in leverage.

Keywords

Market timing, M/B ratio, IPO

Piyasa Zamanlaması Teorisi Üzerine Türkiye’de Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz

Abstract

Bu çalışma sermaye yapısı teorilerinden piyasa zamanlamasını 2010-2018 dönemi için test ederek Türkiye'deki ve diğer ülkelerdeki önceki sonuçlarla karşılaştırmaktadır. Çalışmada özellikle Umutlu'nun (2008a, 2008b) bulgularının sonuçları takip edilerek, bulunan önceki sonuçlar bu çalışmada bulunan sonuçlarla karşılaştırılmaktadır. Çalışmanın birinci adımda ilk halka arzlar (İHAlar) sonrasındaki iki-yıllık dönem için ayrı ayrı klasik en küçük kareler (EKK) uygulanmış, daha sonraki ikinci adımda tüm şirketlere panel veri testi yapılmıştır. Bulunan sonuçlar piyasa zamanlamasında beklenenin aksine, piyasa değeri/defter değeri (PD/DD) oranının kaldıraç oranındaki değişimi pozitif etkilediğini göstermektedir. Buna göre, Türkiye'de şirketler 2010 sonrasında finansal hiyerarşi teoremi ile uygun olarak PD/DD oranları arttıkça 2010 öncesinde olduğu gibi borçlanma oranını artırmaktadır. Özellikle maddi duran varlıkları fazla olan şirketler daha fazla borç alabilmektedir. Halka arz sonrasında, kârlı veya büyük olan firmalar öz sermaye finansmanına yönelmektedir. Literatürdeki bulgular piyasa zamanlaması teorisinin yalnız Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ülkeler için değil Amerika ve İngiltere gibi gelişmiş ülkeler için de genellikle geçerli olmadığını göstermektedir. Bazı gelişmiş ülkelerde, piyasa zamanlaması teorisi ile uygun olarak PD/DD oranları kaldıraçtaki değişim üzerinde kalıcı negatif etkiler yaratmaktadır. Ancak Türkiye'de PD/DD oranlarının kaldıraçtaki değişim üzerinde negatif ve kalıcı etki yaratmadığı gözlemlenmiştir.

Keywords

Piyasa zamanlaması, PD/DD oranı, İHA

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