Türkiye’deki Gıda Fiyatları İle Petrol Fiyatları Ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki Doğrusal Olmayan İlişkinin İncelenmesi: Zamanla-Değişen Parametreli VAR Modelleri

Year 2022, Volume: 6 Issue: 2, 2481 - 2498, 31.05.2022

Selim Güngör , Deniz Erer

https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.1082332

Cited By: 4

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, 2006:1-2021:12 döneminde Türkiye’de reel döviz kuru ve ortalama reel petrol fiyatları ile gıda enflasyonu arasındaki zamanla değişen dinamik ilişkiler incelenmiştir. Bu amaçla TVP-VAR modellerinden yararlanılmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular, reel döviz kurunun gıda enflasyonu üzerindeki etkisinin COVID-19 döneminde artış gösterdiğini ve döviz kurunda Ekim 2021 tarihinden itibaren yaşanan dalgalanmaların gıda enflasyonu üzerindeki etkisinin en yüksek seviyeye ulaştığını ortaya koymuştur. Ayrıca, 2021 yılında başlanan aşılanma sürecinin üretim ve talep artışına yol açmasıyla birlikte, ortalama reel petrol fiyatlarında yaşanan artışların gıda enflasyonunu önemli ölçüde yükselttiği tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

Reel döviz kuru, Petrol Fiyatları, Gıda Fiyatları, Zamanla Değişen Parametreli Vektör Otoregresif Modelleri

Examination Of The Nonlinear Relationship Between, Exchange Rate, Oil Prices and the Food Prıces in Turkey: Time-Varying Parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) Models

Abstract

In this study, the time-varying dynamic relationships among real exchange rate, average real oil price and food inflation is investigated in Turkey during the period of 2006:1-2021:12. For this reason, TVP-VAR models are applied. The findings from this study revealed that the pass-through effect of real exchange rate on food inflation increases rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic, and this effect reaches the highest level in October 2021 in which the fluctuations in exchange rate occured. Besides, it is detected that raises in average oil prices significantly enhance food inflation since the vaccination proccess, starting in early 2021, has caused increases in production and demand.

Keywords

Real Exchange Rate, Oil Prices, Food Prices, Tim-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) Models.

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