An Empirical Assessment of the Role of Emotions and Behavior in Conflict Using Automatically Generated Data

Year 2013, , 31 - 46, 22.08.2013

Steve Shellman Sean O’brien

https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.167314

Cited By: 1

Abstract

An Empirical Assessment of the Role of Emotions and Behavior in Conflict Using Automatically Generated Data

Abstract

Automated event data extraction techniques have revolutionized the study of conflict dynamics through the ability of these techniques to generate large volumes of timely data measuring dynamic interactions among actors around the world. In this paper, we describe our approach for adapting these techniques to extract data on sentiments and emotions, which are theorized to crucially contribute to escalating and de-escalating conflict. Political scientists view political conflict as resulting from a series of strategic interactions between groups and individuals. Psychologists highlight additional factors in political conflict, such as endorsements and condemnations, the public’s attitude toward its leaders, the impact of public attitudes on policy, and decisions to engage in armed conflict. This project combines these two approaches to examine hypotheses regarding the effects that different emotional impulses have on government and dissident decisions to escalate or de-escalate their use of hostility and violence. Across the two cases examined—the democratic Philippines and authoritative Egypt between 2001 and 2012—we found consistent evidence that intense societal fear of dissidents and societal disgust toward the government were associated with increases in dissident hostility. Conversely, societal anger toward dissidents was associated with a reduction in dissident hostility. However, we also found noticeable differences between the two regimes. We close the article with a summary of these similarities and differences, along with an assessment of their implications for future conflict studies. 

Keywords

Natural language processing, automated events and sentiment extraction, conflict dynamics, emotions and behavior, conflict early warning

References

• Ajzen, Icek. Attitudes, Personality, and Behavior. Chicago: Dorsey Press, 1988.
• Bond, Doug, Craig Jenkins, and Kurt Schock. “Mapping Mass Political Conflict and Civil Society: Issues and Prospects for the Automated Development of Event Data.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (1997): 553-579.
• Cottrell, Catherine A. and Steven L. Neuberg. “Different Emotional Reactions to Different Groups: a Sociofunctional Threat-based Approach to “Prejudice”.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 88 (5) (2005): 770-789.
• Ekman, P. “An Argument for Basic Emotions.” Cognition and Emotion 6 (3-4) (1992): 169-200.
• Esty, Daniel C., Jack Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr, Pamela Surko, and Alan N. Unger. Working Papers: State Failure Task Force Report. McLean, VA: Science Applications International Corporation, 1995. Accessed June 8, 2009. http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p312200_index.html.
• Esty, Daniel C., Jack Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr, Barbara Harff, Marc Levy, Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Pamela T. Surko, and Alan N. Unger. The State Failure Task Force Report: Phase II Findings. McLean, VA: Science Applications International Corporation, 1998. Accessed June 8, 2009. http://globalpolicy.gmu.edu/pitf/SFTF%20Phase%20 II%20Report.pdf.
• Kuppens, Peter, Iven Van Mechelen, Dirk J.M. Smits, Paul De Boeck. “The Appraisal Basis of Anger: Specificity, Necessity and Sufficiency of Components.” Emotion 3 (3) (2003): 254-269.
• Lake, David H. and Powell, Robert. “International Relations: A Strategic-Choice Approach.” In Strategic Choice and International Relations, edited by David H. Lake and Robert Powell. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999.
• Lerner, Jennifer S. and Keltner, Dacher. “Fear, Anger, and Risk.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 81(1) (2001): 146-159.
• Matsumoto, David, Hyisung C. Hwang and Mark G. Frank. “Emotional Language and Political Aggression.” Journal of Language and Social Psychology XX (X) (2013):1-17. Accessed May 8, 2013. DOI: 10.1177/0261927X12474654
• O’Brien, Sean P. “Anticipating the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: An Early Warning Approach to Conflict and Instability Analysis.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (2002): 791-811.
• Petraeus, David H., and James F. Amos. U.S. Army/U. S. Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2007.
• Plutchik, Robert. Emotion, a Psychoevolutionary Synthesis. New York: Harper and Row, 1980.
• Schrodt, Philip A., and Deborah J. Gerner. “Empirical Indicators of Crisis Phase in the Middle East, 1979–1995.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (1997): 529-552.
• Schrodt, Philip A., Shannon G. Davis, and Judith L. Weddle. “Political Science: KEDS―A Program for Machine Coding Events Data.’’ Social Science Computer Review 12 (3) (1994): 561-88.
• Shellman, Stephen M. “Leaders and Their Motivations: Explaining Government-Dissident Conflict-Cooperation Processes.” Conflict Management & Peace Science 23 (1) (2006a): 73-90.
• Shellman, Stephen M. “Process Matters: Conflict and Cooperation in Sequential Government-Dissident Interactions.” Security Studies 15 (4) (2006b): 563-599.
• Shellman, Stephen M. Taking Turns: A Theory and Model of Government-Dissident Interactions. Saarbrucken: VDM Verlag, 2010.
• Shellman, Stephen M., Clare J. Hatfield, and Maggie J. Mills. “Disaggregating Actors in Intrastate Conflict.” Journal of Peace Research 47 (1) (2010): 83-90.
• Shellman, Stephen M., Brian P. Levey, and Joseph K. Young. “Shifting Sands: Predicting Phase Shifts by Dissident Organizations.” Journal of Peace Research 50 (3) (2013): 319-336, DOI:10.1177/0022343312474013.
• Singer, J. David and Melvin Small. The Wages of War, 1816-1965: A Statistical Handbook. New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1972.
• Wallensteen, Peter and Margareta Sollenberg. “Armed Conflict 1989-98.” Journal of Peace Research 36 (5) (1999): 593-606.
• Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, Michael Brecher, and Sheila Moser. Crises in the Twentieth Century: Handbook of Foreign Policy Crises. Oxford, England: Pergamon Press, 1988.