Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Gross Foreign Exchange Reserve Adequacy of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey with Logit and Probit Methods

Year 2022, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 54 - 68, 12.04.2022

Cavid Süleymanlı

Abstract

Çalışmada Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankasının (TCMB) Brüt Döviz Rezervlerinin, İMF`ın önerdiği optimum rezerv oranlarına göre yeterliliği incelenmiştir. Bu amaçla ilk önce optimal rezerv büyüklükleri olan toplam rezervlerin M2 parasal büyüklüğünün %25`ne, 3 aylık ithalat verilerinin %20`ne ve kısa vadeli dış borç hacmine olan oranları ele alınmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, ulusal rezervlerin ithalatı ve kısa vadeli dış borçları karşılama oranları önerilen optimum düzeyin altında değerler aldığı için, çalışmanın ampirik bölümünde rezervlerin M2 parasal büyüklüğüne oranı optimum rezerv seviyesi olarak seçilmiştir. Logit ve Probit yöntemleri ile çözümlenen modelde, 2013 yılının ocak ve 2021 yılının haziran ayları arasındaki peryodu kapsayan aylık veriler ile optimum döviz rezervi eşik değerine etki eden makro iktisadi faktörler araştırılmıştır. Bulgulara göre, enflasyonda ve kısa vadeli dış borç hacminde yaşanan artışlar, döviz rezervlerinin optimum rezerv oranının altına düşmesi olasılığını artırmaktadır.

Keywords

TCMB, Döviz Rezervleri, Optimum Döviz Rezervleri

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