Abstract
Bu çalışmanın amacı 2005:1-2019:1 dönem için aylık verilerle ARDL
yöntemi kullanarak TCMB’nin faiz kararlarını Taylor Kuralı’na uygun bir şekilde
alıp almadığını sınamaktır. Bulgular; uzun dönemde, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez
Bankası’nın politika faizi kararlarını hem çıktı açığına hem de enflasyon
açığına göre aldığını ancak politika faiz kararının enflasyon açığıyla
ilişkisinin daha güçlü olduğunu göstermektedir. Kısa dönemde ise sadece
enflasyon açığıyla arasında ilişki bulunmuş olup çıktı açığıyla arasında
herhangi bir anlamlı ilişki bulunamamıştır. Sonuç olarak TCMB, uzun dönemde hem
fiyat istikrarına hem çıktı istikrarına göre karar alırken kısa dönemde sadece
fiyat istikrarına odaklanmaktadır.
Keywords
References
- Burak Darıcı (2010), Interest Rate Smoothing Rule as a Short Term Monetary Policy Tool: Theoretical and Methodological Approach, BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar, Vol:4, Issue:2, pp. 39-66 CBRT Law No.4561 2001 Retrieved from https://www.tbmm.gov.tr/tutanaklar/KANUKANU_KARARLAR/kanuntbmmc085/kanukanunt085/kanuntbmmc08504651.pdf
- Eric Zivot; Donald Andrews (1992), Futher Evidence on the Great Crash, The Oil-Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis, Journal of Bussines & Economic Statictics, Vol:10, pp.251-270
- Fatih Özatay (2015), Parasal İktisat Kuram ve Politikaları, Efil Publishing House, Ankara, TURKEY, pp. 245-277
- Fatih Özatay (2015), Parasal İktisat Kuram ve Politikaları, Efil Publishing House, Ankara, TURKEY, pp.393-436
- Ferhat Pehlivanoğlu (2014), The Estimation of Taylor Type Interest Rate Reaction’s Function in The Frame of Optimal Monetary Policy: The Case of Turkeyi, Bilgi Ekonomisi ve Yönetim Dergisi, Vol:9, pp.115-126.
- Hakan Ongan (2004), Enflasyon Hedeflmesi ve Taylor Kuralı: Türkiye Örneği. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Maliye Arşatırma Merkezi Konferansları 45. seri, İstanbul, TURKEY, pp.1-12
- Hashem Peseran; Yongcheol Shin; Richard Smith (2001), Bounds Testing Approaches to The Analysis of Level Relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol:16, Issue: 3, pp.289-326
- Huriye Alkın; Sayım Işık; Abdullah Emre Çağlar (2018), Asymmetric Causality Test of Taylor Rule in Turkey, Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Vol:35, pp.211-225
- John Taylor (1993), Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol:39, North-Holland, pp. 195-214
- Julien Garnier & Roger Wilhemsen (2005), The natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area: A joint estimation, Retrived From Norges Bank, https://www.norges-bank.no/globalassets/upload/import/publikasjoner/arbeidsnotater/pdf/arb-2005-14.pdf, pp.11-15
- Lars Svensson (1997), Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets, ELSEVIER European Economic Review, Vol:1997/41, pp. 1111-1146
- Lars Svensson (2000), Open Economy Inflation Targeting, ELSEVIER Journal of International Economics, Vol:2000/50, pp. 155-183
- Necla Aklan; Mehmet Nargeleçekenler (2008), The Taylor Rule: An Assessment of Turkish Experience. SBF Dergisi, pp.21-41
- Nihal Yayla; Reşat Ceylan; İsmail Çeviş (2017), An ARDL Approach to Stock Market and Economic Growth Relationship in Turkey, Social Science, Vol:12, Issue:4, pp.185-198, 190
- Pierre Perron (1989), The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis, Econometrica, Vol. 57, pp. 1361-1401
Abstract
The aim of this study is to test whether the
TCMB makes interest rate decisions in accordance with Taylor Rule by using ARDL
method with monthly data for 2005: 1-2019: 1 period. The results show that the
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has taken policy interest rate decisions
both in terms of the output gap and the inflation gap in the long term, but the
policy interest rate decision is stronger in relation to the inflation gap. In
the short term, there was only a relationship between the inflation gap and the
output gap. As a result, the TCMB has decided on both price stability and
output stability in the long run, while focusing only on price stability in the
short run.
Keywords
References
- Burak Darıcı (2010), Interest Rate Smoothing Rule as a Short Term Monetary Policy Tool: Theoretical and Methodological Approach, BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar, Vol:4, Issue:2, pp. 39-66 CBRT Law No.4561 2001 Retrieved from https://www.tbmm.gov.tr/tutanaklar/KANUKANU_KARARLAR/kanuntbmmc085/kanukanunt085/kanuntbmmc08504651.pdf
- Eric Zivot; Donald Andrews (1992), Futher Evidence on the Great Crash, The Oil-Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis, Journal of Bussines & Economic Statictics, Vol:10, pp.251-270
- Fatih Özatay (2015), Parasal İktisat Kuram ve Politikaları, Efil Publishing House, Ankara, TURKEY, pp. 245-277
- Fatih Özatay (2015), Parasal İktisat Kuram ve Politikaları, Efil Publishing House, Ankara, TURKEY, pp.393-436
- Ferhat Pehlivanoğlu (2014), The Estimation of Taylor Type Interest Rate Reaction’s Function in The Frame of Optimal Monetary Policy: The Case of Turkeyi, Bilgi Ekonomisi ve Yönetim Dergisi, Vol:9, pp.115-126.
- Hakan Ongan (2004), Enflasyon Hedeflmesi ve Taylor Kuralı: Türkiye Örneği. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Maliye Arşatırma Merkezi Konferansları 45. seri, İstanbul, TURKEY, pp.1-12
- Hashem Peseran; Yongcheol Shin; Richard Smith (2001), Bounds Testing Approaches to The Analysis of Level Relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol:16, Issue: 3, pp.289-326
- Huriye Alkın; Sayım Işık; Abdullah Emre Çağlar (2018), Asymmetric Causality Test of Taylor Rule in Turkey, Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Vol:35, pp.211-225
- John Taylor (1993), Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol:39, North-Holland, pp. 195-214
- Julien Garnier & Roger Wilhemsen (2005), The natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area: A joint estimation, Retrived From Norges Bank, https://www.norges-bank.no/globalassets/upload/import/publikasjoner/arbeidsnotater/pdf/arb-2005-14.pdf, pp.11-15
- Lars Svensson (1997), Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets, ELSEVIER European Economic Review, Vol:1997/41, pp. 1111-1146
- Lars Svensson (2000), Open Economy Inflation Targeting, ELSEVIER Journal of International Economics, Vol:2000/50, pp. 155-183
- Necla Aklan; Mehmet Nargeleçekenler (2008), The Taylor Rule: An Assessment of Turkish Experience. SBF Dergisi, pp.21-41
- Nihal Yayla; Reşat Ceylan; İsmail Çeviş (2017), An ARDL Approach to Stock Market and Economic Growth Relationship in Turkey, Social Science, Vol:12, Issue:4, pp.185-198, 190
- Pierre Perron (1989), The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis, Econometrica, Vol. 57, pp. 1361-1401
Details
| Primary Language | English |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Research Article |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | November 5, 2019 |
| Acceptance Date | November 1, 2019 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2019 Volume: 7 Number: ICOAEF’ 19 |
Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Creative Commons Atıf-GayriTicari 4.0 Uluslararası Lisansı (CC BY NC) ile lisanslanmıştır.