The Effect of Covid-19 on BIST-100 and Exchange Rates Influencing Businesses
Year 2021,
Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 411 - 419, 15.04.2021
Mehmet İslamoglu
,
Muhammed Ali Yetgin
,
Fatih Kayhan
Abstract
Covid-19, appearing first in City of Wuhan in People's Republic of China in December 2019, infected all continents, regions and countries in a very short period. Covid-19 influenced the humanity in terms of health, economic and social aspects. The effect of Covid-19 on the economy is studied in this research. Businesses are considered as one of the most important actors of the country's economy. Investments in stocks, stock exchange and exchange rates determine the activities of businesses. The effects of Covid-19 pandemic on exchange rates (USD/TL and EURO/TL) and BIST-100 are examined in this study. E-views 9.0 statistical program is used in this research. Phillips-Perron unit root test and multiple regression tests are employed in the analyses. The study concludes by suggesting that Covid-19 daily number of cases and number of patients that recover the pandemic have significant effect on USD/TRY, EUR/TRY and BIST-100, which are leading economic and financial indicators as far as Turkey is concerned.
References
- Abodunrin O., Oloye G., Adesola B. (2020). Coronavirus Pandemic And Its Implication On Global Economy. International Journal of Arts, Languages and Business Studies (IJALBS), Vol.4, 13-23.
- Altman, D. (1999). Globalization, Political Economy, and HIV/AIDS. Theory and Society, Vol. 28, No. 4. 559-584
- Aslan R. (2020). Tarihten Günümüze Epidemiler, Pandemiler ve Covid-19.Göller Bölgesi Aylık Ekonomi ve Kültür Dergisi, 8 (85), 36-41.
- Barro, R. J., Ursua, J.F., Weng, J. (2020). The Coronavirus And The Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons From The “Spanish Flu” For The Coronavirus’s Potentıal Effects On Mortality And Economic Activity. National Bureau Of Economic Research (Working Paper), 26866, 1-27.
- Bloomberg. (Erişim 05.06. 2020), www.bloomberg.com
- Dünya Sağlık Örgütü (WHO). (Erişim 05 Haziran 2020), https://www.who.int/
- Ewers, M., Dauelsberg, L. R. (2007). Pandemic Influenza Mitigation Strategies and their Economic Impacts, Los Alamos National Laboratory. 2007 System Dynamic Conference, 1-13.
- Garrett, T. (2008). Pandemic Economics: The 1918 Influenza and Its Modern-Day Implications. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louıs Review, 75-94.
- Gupta, A. G., Moyer, C. A., Stern, D. T. (2005). The Economic Impact of Quarantine: SARS in Toronto as a Case Study. Journal of Infection, 50, 386–393.
- İstanbul Sanayi Odası (İSO). Covid-19 Salgınının Ekonomimiz Üzerinde Etkisini Azaltmak İçin Hazırlanan Tüm Finansal Destek Paketleri. 31 Mart 2020 tarihli rapor, 1-13.
- Jorda, O., Singh, S.R., Taylor, A. (2020). Longer-Run Economic Consequences Of Pandemics. National Bureau Of Economic Research (Working Paper) 26934, 1-17.
- Jonung L, Roeger W. (2006). The Macroeconomic Effects of A Pandemic in Europe- A Model-Based Assessment., European Economy European Commission Dırectorate-General For Economic And Financial Affairs Economic Papers, ISSN 1725-3187, 1-21.
- Türkiye Bilimler Akademisi. (2020). Covid-19 Pandemi Değerlendirme Raporu. Türkiye Bilimler Akademisi Yayınları, TÜBA Raporları No: 34, 1-162.
- Keogh-Brown M. R., Smith R. D., Edmunds J. W., Beutels P. (2010). The Macroeconomic İmpact of Pandemic İnfluenza: Estimates From Models Of
The United Kingdom, France, Belgium And The Netherlands. Eur J Health Econ, 11, 543–554.
- Kohlscheen E., Mojon B., Rees D. (2020). The Macroeconomic Spillover Effects Of The Pandemic On The Global Economy. BIS Bulletin, No 4, 1-11.
- KPMG International Cooperative NL. (Erişim 4 Haziran 2020), https://home.kpmg/tr/tr/home/gorusler/2020/04/covid-19-finansal-raporlama.html
- Oktay E., Özçomak, M.S. (2001). CUSUM Kontrol Grafikleri ve Bir Uygulama. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 15(1-2), 361-387.
- Peckham R. (2013). Economies of Contagion: Financial Crisis And Pandemic. Economy and Society, 42:2, 226-248.
- Peker, Y., Demirhan, E. (2020). Covid-19 Küresel Salgının Borsa İstanbul’daki Sektörlere Etkisi. Türkiye Ekonomi Politikaları Araştırma Vakfı (TEPAV), N202012, 1-14.
- Phillips, P., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 335-346.
- Rawski T.G. (2005). Prepublication version of chapter for SARS in China: Prelude to Pandemic? Ed. Arthur Kleinman and James L. Watson. Stanford: Stanford University Press,1-16.
- Smith R. D., Keogh Brown M. R., Barnett T., Tait J. (2009). The Economy-Wide İmpact Of Pandemic İnfluenza On The UK: A Computable General Equilibrium Modelling Experiment. BMJ, 339, 1-7.
- ULİSA12 (Aydınlı, İ. Genel Koordinatör). (2020). Kovid-19 (Koronavirüs) Salgınının Ekonomik Etkileri. Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt Üniversitesi Uluslararası İlişkiler ve Stratejik Araştırmalar Enstitüsü, 12 (1), 1-30.
- Williams, D. (2020). Long-Term Priorities for Canada's Post-Pandemic Economy. Policy Perspectives, 27 (1), 1-9.
- World Health Organization (WHO Report), Considerations for Mass Gathering in the Context of Covid-19, 14 May 2020, 1-2.
- Yoldascan E., Kurtaran B., Koyuncu M., Koyuncu E. (2010). Modeling the Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza: A Case Study in Turkey. J Med Syst, 34:139–145.
The Effect of Covid-19 on BIST-100 and Exchange Rates Influencing Businesses
Year 2021,
Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 411 - 419, 15.04.2021
Mehmet İslamoglu
,
Muhammed Ali Yetgin
,
Fatih Kayhan
Abstract
Covid-19, appearing first in City of Wuhan in People's Republic of China in December 2019, infected all continents, regions and countries in a very short period. Covid-19 influenced the humanity in terms of health, economic and social aspects. The effect of Covid-19 on the economy is studied in this research. Businesses are considered as one of the most important actors of the country's economy. Investments in stocks, stock exchange and exchange rates determine the activities of businesses. The effects of Covid-19 pandemic on exchange rates (USD/TL and EURO/TL) and BIST-100 are examined in this study. E-views 9.0 statistical program is used in this research. Phillips-Perron unit root test and multiple regression tests are employed in the analyses. The study concludes by suggesting that Covid-19 daily number of cases and number of patients that recover the pandemic have significant effect on USD/TRY, EUR/TRY and BIST-100, which are leading economic and financial indicators as far as Turkey is concerned.
References
- Abodunrin O., Oloye G., Adesola B. (2020). Coronavirus Pandemic And Its Implication On Global Economy. International Journal of Arts, Languages and Business Studies (IJALBS), Vol.4, 13-23.
- Altman, D. (1999). Globalization, Political Economy, and HIV/AIDS. Theory and Society, Vol. 28, No. 4. 559-584
- Aslan R. (2020). Tarihten Günümüze Epidemiler, Pandemiler ve Covid-19.Göller Bölgesi Aylık Ekonomi ve Kültür Dergisi, 8 (85), 36-41.
- Barro, R. J., Ursua, J.F., Weng, J. (2020). The Coronavirus And The Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons From The “Spanish Flu” For The Coronavirus’s Potentıal Effects On Mortality And Economic Activity. National Bureau Of Economic Research (Working Paper), 26866, 1-27.
- Bloomberg. (Erişim 05.06. 2020), www.bloomberg.com
- Dünya Sağlık Örgütü (WHO). (Erişim 05 Haziran 2020), https://www.who.int/
- Ewers, M., Dauelsberg, L. R. (2007). Pandemic Influenza Mitigation Strategies and their Economic Impacts, Los Alamos National Laboratory. 2007 System Dynamic Conference, 1-13.
- Garrett, T. (2008). Pandemic Economics: The 1918 Influenza and Its Modern-Day Implications. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louıs Review, 75-94.
- Gupta, A. G., Moyer, C. A., Stern, D. T. (2005). The Economic Impact of Quarantine: SARS in Toronto as a Case Study. Journal of Infection, 50, 386–393.
- İstanbul Sanayi Odası (İSO). Covid-19 Salgınının Ekonomimiz Üzerinde Etkisini Azaltmak İçin Hazırlanan Tüm Finansal Destek Paketleri. 31 Mart 2020 tarihli rapor, 1-13.
- Jorda, O., Singh, S.R., Taylor, A. (2020). Longer-Run Economic Consequences Of Pandemics. National Bureau Of Economic Research (Working Paper) 26934, 1-17.
- Jonung L, Roeger W. (2006). The Macroeconomic Effects of A Pandemic in Europe- A Model-Based Assessment., European Economy European Commission Dırectorate-General For Economic And Financial Affairs Economic Papers, ISSN 1725-3187, 1-21.
- Türkiye Bilimler Akademisi. (2020). Covid-19 Pandemi Değerlendirme Raporu. Türkiye Bilimler Akademisi Yayınları, TÜBA Raporları No: 34, 1-162.
- Keogh-Brown M. R., Smith R. D., Edmunds J. W., Beutels P. (2010). The Macroeconomic İmpact of Pandemic İnfluenza: Estimates From Models Of
The United Kingdom, France, Belgium And The Netherlands. Eur J Health Econ, 11, 543–554.
- Kohlscheen E., Mojon B., Rees D. (2020). The Macroeconomic Spillover Effects Of The Pandemic On The Global Economy. BIS Bulletin, No 4, 1-11.
- KPMG International Cooperative NL. (Erişim 4 Haziran 2020), https://home.kpmg/tr/tr/home/gorusler/2020/04/covid-19-finansal-raporlama.html
- Oktay E., Özçomak, M.S. (2001). CUSUM Kontrol Grafikleri ve Bir Uygulama. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 15(1-2), 361-387.
- Peckham R. (2013). Economies of Contagion: Financial Crisis And Pandemic. Economy and Society, 42:2, 226-248.
- Peker, Y., Demirhan, E. (2020). Covid-19 Küresel Salgının Borsa İstanbul’daki Sektörlere Etkisi. Türkiye Ekonomi Politikaları Araştırma Vakfı (TEPAV), N202012, 1-14.
- Phillips, P., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 335-346.
- Rawski T.G. (2005). Prepublication version of chapter for SARS in China: Prelude to Pandemic? Ed. Arthur Kleinman and James L. Watson. Stanford: Stanford University Press,1-16.
- Smith R. D., Keogh Brown M. R., Barnett T., Tait J. (2009). The Economy-Wide İmpact Of Pandemic İnfluenza On The UK: A Computable General Equilibrium Modelling Experiment. BMJ, 339, 1-7.
- ULİSA12 (Aydınlı, İ. Genel Koordinatör). (2020). Kovid-19 (Koronavirüs) Salgınının Ekonomik Etkileri. Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt Üniversitesi Uluslararası İlişkiler ve Stratejik Araştırmalar Enstitüsü, 12 (1), 1-30.
- Williams, D. (2020). Long-Term Priorities for Canada's Post-Pandemic Economy. Policy Perspectives, 27 (1), 1-9.
- World Health Organization (WHO Report), Considerations for Mass Gathering in the Context of Covid-19, 14 May 2020, 1-2.
- Yoldascan E., Kurtaran B., Koyuncu M., Koyuncu E. (2010). Modeling the Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza: A Case Study in Turkey. J Med Syst, 34:139–145.