Gayrinakdi Krediler ile İmalat Sanayi Arasındaki İlişki: Ampirik Bir Uygulama

Year 2021, Volume: 9 Issue: 4, 885 - 897, 31.08.2021

Berkan Ataş , Osman Emre Arlı

https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.819686

Abstract

Türkiye imalat sanayisi büyük ölçüde dışarıdan alınan hammadde, ara mal ve yatırım mallarına bağımlıdır. Gayrinakdi krediler, dışardan temin edilen bu kalemlerin temini için oldukça sık kullanılan bir finansman yöntemidir. Bu nedenle gayrinakdi kredilerin, imalat sanayi üzerinde etkili olabileceği düşünülmektedir. Çalışmada, 2008-2019 yılları arasında Türkiye’de bankacılık sistemi tarafından kullandırılan gayrinakdi kredilerin imalat sanayisi kapasite kullanım oranları üzerindeki kısa ve uzun dönemli etkileri incelenmiştir. Uzun dönemli ilişkinin tespiti için Johansen eşbütünleşme modeli kullanılmıştır. Bunun yanında etkileşimin yönü ve derecesinin incelenmesi ve bu sayede çalışmaya derinlik kazandırılması için vektör hata düzeltme modeli kullanılan bir diğer yöntemdir. Bulunan sonuçlara göre gayrinakdi kredi büyüklüğü ve kapasite kullanım oranları eşbütünleşiktir. Fakat seriler arasındaki etkileşim yalnızca uzun dönemde gerçekleşmektedir. Yapılan bu çalışma ile imalat sanayisi kapasite kullanım oranlarının öncü göstergesi olarak bankacılık sektöründe kullandırılan gayrinakdi kredilerin incelenebileceği gösterilmiştir. Başka bir deyişle gayrinakdi kredilerde meydana gelen değişimler, imalat sanayi kapasite kullanım oranlarında bir etkiye sebep olabileceği şeklinde yorumlanabilir.

Keywords

gayrinakdi krediler, kapasite kullanım oranı, Johansen eşbütünleşme

The Relationship Between Non-Cash Loans and The Manufacturing Industry: An Empirical Study

Abstract

Turkey's manufacturing industry is largely dependent on imported raw materials, intermediate goods, and investment goods. Non-cash loans are a very common financing method for the supply of these items. For this reason, it is thought that non-cash loans may have an impact on the manufacturing industry. The study examined the short-and long-term effects of non-cash loans provided by the banking system in Turkey between 2008 and 2019 on the capacity utilization rates of the manufacturing industry. The Johansen cointegration model is used to determine the long-term relationship. In addition, vector error correction model is another method used to examine the direction and degree of interaction and thus gain depth to the study. According to the results, non-cash loan size and capacity utilization rates are cointegrated. However, the interaction between the series only takes place in the long run. This study has shown that non-cash loans in the banking sector can be regarded as a leading indicator of capacity utilization rates in the manufacturing industry. In other words, changes in non-cash loans may influence manufacturing capacity utilization rates.

Keywords

Non-Cash Loan, Capacity Utilization, Johansen Cointegration

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