Bivariate Drought Frequency Analysis based on Copula Theory for Osmaniye Region

Year 2021, Volume: 9 Issue: 3, 388 - 396, 30.09.2021

Musa Eşit , Mehmet Yüce

https://doi.org/10.21541/apjes.728959

Cited By: 3

Abstract

Keywords

SPI, Kopula, Osmaniye, Yağış

Kopula Yöntemi ile Osmaniye Bölgesinin İki Değişkenli Kuraklık Frekans Analizi

Abstract

Çok değişkenli frekans dağılımları, hidrolojik tasarım ve risk yönetimi için giderek daha fazla önem kazanmaktadır. Geleneksel çok değişkenli dağılımlar, tüm bileşen marjinallerinin aynı dağılım ailesinden olması gerektiği için ciddi şekilde sınırlamalara sahiptir. Kopula yöntemi, bu sınırlamanın üstesinden gelen çok değişkenli dağılımların türetilmesi için yeni ortaya çıkan bir yaklaşımdır. Bu çalışmada, Osmaniye ilinin yağış istasyonu uzun dönem veriler ile kuraklık analizi kopula fonksiyonu kullanılarak hesaplanmıştır. İlk olarak, kuraklık parametreleri olan kuraklık süresi ve şiddeti SPI metodu kullanılarak elde edilmiştir. Gözlemlenen kuraklık süresi için Lognormal, kuraklık şiddeti için ise Weibull en uygun marjinal dağılım olarak bulunmuştur. Her bir kuraklık parametresi için tek değişkenli dağılım fonksiyonu elde edildikten sonra, Gumbel kopulası belirlenen 10 kopula fonksiyonu arasında Akaike Bilgi Kriteri (AIC), Bayes Bilgi Kriteri (BIC), Maksimum olabilirlik (MLE) yöntemleri ve kuyruk bağımlılığı da dikkate alınarak seçilmiştir. En son olarak Osmaniye ili kuraklık ortak dönüş periyodu hesaplanmış olup, muhtemel yapılması düşünülen su temini sistemi, hidrolik tasarım ve su yönetimi gibi konularda yararlı bilgiler sağlamaktadır.

Keywords

SPI, Kopula, Osmaniye, Yağış

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