Application of Hypothetical Ecological Risk Analysis to Sustainable Usage of Possible Winter Recreation Areas in Seyhan Basin (Türkiye)

Year 2022, , 229 - 234, 20.10.2022

Okan Yeler , Gazel Burcu Aydın , Belgin Çamur Elipek , Süha Berberoğlu

https://doi.org/10.26650/ASE20221115945

Abstract

In this study, the long-term suitability of the area proposals for winter recreation activities in the Sey-han Basin (Türkiye), which is located in the Mediterranean and Central Anatolia regions and includes a large part of the Taurus Mountains, were examined ecologically. For this purpose, the predicted global warming scenarios in the basin and the anthropogenic impacts arising from the planned rec-reation areas were evaluated for the upper basin (recreation areas) and lower basin (water resources, agricultural lands, and settlements) using a hypothetical risk analysis. For this purpose, multispectral images were obtained by using Landsat 8 Oli Multispectral images of the snow areas in the region in January-February-March 2019, and a hypothetical ecological risk analysis was created considering a total of 5 pressure factors originating from global climate change and anthropogenic effects. These possible factors were determined as flood (S1), drought (S2), sedimentation (S3), aquatic nutrients (S4), and tourist density (S5). The effects of these factors on a total of four features (C1: water quality, C2: fauna-flora, C3: agricultural areas, and C4: settlements) in the region were evaluated by hypothet-ical grading based on the literature. According to the hypothesis results obtained by the formula and statistical calculations, it was determined that the flood factor (S1) that will occur due to possible snow melt due to global climate change in the winter recreation areas in the studied region is the most significant factor limiting the sustainable usage of the Basin. For this reason, it has been emphasized in this study that the possibility of regions being exposed to the effects of climate change in the fu-ture should be taken into account, especially when planning for winter recreation areas. At the end of this study, it was concluded that the ecological balance analysis of basins is important, especially in terms of ensuring the long-term sustainable use of winter recreation areas.

Keywords

Climate change, Ecology, Environmental parameters, Hypothetical risk, Sustainability

References

• Akın, A. & Erdoğan, M. A. (2017). Determining the suitable areas for winter sports by using remote sensing and geographical information systems in Aladağ Region. Artvin Çoruh University Journal of Forestry Faculty, 18(2), 201-210. google scholar
• Askar, M. A. A. & Başıbüyük, M. (2020). Assessing climate change impacts on water resources of Seyhan River Basin by using SWAT model. Çukurova University Journal of the Faculty of Engineering, 39(2), 1-10. google scholar
• Bayer-Altın, T. & Barak, B. (2012). Changes and Trends in Precipitation and Air Temperature Values During the Period of 1970 and 2009 in the Seyhan Basin. Turkish Geographical Review. 58, 21-34. google scholar
• Değerliyurt, M. & Çubuk, N. S. (2015). The theory of Mcharg: Design with nature and geodesign. The Journal of Academic Social Science Studies. 39, 293-306. google scholar
• Dönmez, C., Berberoglu, S. & Cilek, A. (2016). Understanding spatial and temporal snow dynamics of a Mediterranean Catchment using Process-Oriented Modelling and remote sensing. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 25(5), 1608-1621. google scholar
• Elias, M. S., Hamzah, M. S., Rahman, S. A., Salim, N. A. A., Siong, W. B. & Sanuri, E. (2014). Ecological risk assessment of elemental pollution in sediment from Tunku Abdul Rahman National Park, Sabah. Advancing Nuclear Research and Energy Development, 1584, 196206. google scholar
• Erdoğan, M. A. (2012). Generating Ecological Risk Analysis Method for Büyük Menderes Basin. İstanbul Technical University, doctoral thesis. google scholar
• Gönençgil, B. & İçel, G. (2010). Variations of Total Yearly Precipitation in Eastern Mediterranean Coasts of Turkey (1975-2006). Turkish Geographical Review, 55, 1-12. google scholar
• Gürkan, D. (2005). Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Surface-Water Resources in Seyhan River Basin, Hacettepe University, master thesis. google scholar
• Hâkanson L. (1980). An ecological risk index for aquatic pollution control of sediment ecological approach. Water Research, 14, 974-1001. google scholar
• Harris, J. H., Wenger, R. B., Harris, A. V. & Devault, D. S. (1994). A method for assessing environmental risk: A case study of Green Bay, Lake Michigan, USA. Environmental Management, 18(2), 295-306. google scholar
• Ilie, M., Marinescu, F., Ghita, G., Anghel, A. M., Tociu, C., Popescu, I., Matei, M., Elena, H., Deâk, G., Raischi, M., Cirstinoiu, C. & Bogdan, U. (2017). Spatial distribution of heavy metal contamination and ecological risk assessment in water from the Danube River. International Journal of Environmental Science, 2, 118-124. google scholar
• Kantarcı, M. D. (2012). Çakıt havzasındaki sel olayları, etkileri ve dağlık arazide toprak koruma/ağaçlandırma çalışmaları, Retrieved from http://www.cem.gov.tr/erozyon/files/resimlihaber/2012_corum_ egitimi/cakit_havzasindaki_sel_olaylari.pdf (erişim: 1.Kasım.2019) google scholar
• Kimura, F., Kitoh, A., Sumi, A., Asanuma, J. & Tatagai, A. (2006). An assessment for downscaling methods for global warming in Turkey. The Advance Report of the Research Project on the Impact of Climate Changes on Agricultural Production System in Arid Areas, 11-14. google scholar
• Lemly, A. D. (1997). Risk assessment as an environmental management tool: considerations for freshwater wetlands. Environmental Management, 21, 343-358 google scholar
• Malkoç, F., Arslan, M., Diren, M. & Sargın, A. H. (2013). Investigation of Possible Effects of Climate Change on Çatalan Dam Flows. III. Turkey Climate Change Congress, İstanbul, Turkey. google scholar
• Özfidaner, M., Şapolyo, D. & Topaloğlu, F. (2018). Seyhan Havzası Akım Verilerinin Hidrolojik Kuraklık Analizi, Toprak Su Dergisi, 7(1), 57-64. google scholar
• Preston, B. L. (2002). Indirect effects in aquatic ecotoxicology: Implications for ecological risk assessment. Environmental Management, 29, 311323. google scholar
• Salihoğlu, G. & Karaer, F. (2004). Ecological risk assessment and problem formulation for Lake Uluabat, a ramsar state in Turkey. Environmental Management, 33(6), 899-910. google scholar
• Serveiss, V. B. (2002). Applying ecological risk principles to watershed assessment and management. Environmental Management, 29, 145-154. google scholar
• Solomon, K. R. & Sibley, P. (2002). New concepts in ecological risk assessment: Where do we go from here. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 44, 279-285. google scholar
• Tekeli, A. E., Akyürek, Z., Şorman, A. A., Şensoy, A. & Şorman, A. Ü. (2005). Using MODIS snow cover maps in modeling snowmelt runoff process in the eastern part of Turkey. Remote Sensing of Environment, 97, 216-230. google scholar
• Tezcan, L., Ekmekçi, M., Atilla, Ö., Gürkan, D., Yalçınkaya, O., Otgonbayar, N., Saylu, M. E., Donma, S., Yılmazer, D., Akyatan, A.,Pelen, N., Topaloglu, F. & İrvem, A., (2007). Seyhan Nehri Havzasında Tarım Güvenliği İçin Su Kaynakları Sistemlerinin İklim Değişikliğine Karşı Duyarlılıklarının Araştırılması. ICCAP Projesi Türk Grubu Sonuç Raporları, Kyoto, 1-24 google scholar
• Türkeş, M., Koç, T. & Sarış, F. (2007). Spatial and Temporal Analysis of the Changes and Trends in Precipitation Total and Intensity Series of Turkey. Turkish Journal of Geographical Sciences, 5(1), 57-73. google scholar
• U.S. EPA, (1998). Guidelines for ecological risk assessment. Risk Assessment Forum, Washington D.C. 114 pp. google scholar
• Yüce, Ş., Ercan, B., Eşit, M., Ünsal, M. & Yüce, M. İ. (2018). Trend Analysis of Precipitation in Seyhan Basin, İklim Değişikliği ve Çevre, 3(2), 4754. google scholar
• Yücel, I. & Güventürk, A. (2012). Changes in snowmelt runoff for mountain regions of eastern Turkey. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 14:2012-8706. google scholar