KRİPTOPARA BİRİMLERİ PİYASASINDA PUMP&DUMP MANİPULASYONLARININ İKİ AŞAMALI ANALİZİ

Year 2019, Volume: 33 Issue: 3, 919 - 932, 16.07.2019

Tuna Can Güleç , Hüseyin Aktaş

Abstract

Bu çalışma kapsamında, kripto para birimi piyasalarındaki manipülatif
faaliyetlerin belgelenmesi ve yapısının incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla
kripto para birimi piyasalarındaki fiyat sıçramaları iki aşamalı olarak analiz
edilmiştir. Çalışmanın ilk aşamasında, bir kripto borsa olan Binance bünyesinde
aktif bir hesap oluşturulmuş ve Telegram üzerinden haberleşen manipülasyon
grupları ile birlikte hareket edilerek “Pump and Dump” tipi bir manipülasyona
dahil olunmuştur. Deney kapsamında 30 saniye süren bir dizi işlem sonucunda %25
getiri elde edilmiştir.  Buna ek olarak,
bu tür manipülasyonların işlem hacmi düşük olan genç piyasaları hedef aldığı
tespit edilmiştir. Bu bulgulardan hareketle olgun piyasaların tepkilerini ölçme
amacıyla, Bitcoin fiyat serisi üzerinde dakikalık frekansta 1.162.887 gözlem
kullanılarak Jump-Difüzyon analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Analiz bulgularına
göre kripto para birimlerinin belirli bir olgunluğa ulaştıktan sonra
manipülasyonlara karşı bağışıklık kazandığı gözlemlenmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda teknolojik
olarak daha başarılı olan yeni kripto para birimlerinin manipülasyonlardan
kaynaklı sebeplerden dolayı talep görmediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu
doğrultuda, gelecek çalışmaların kripto para birimlerinde manipülasyonu
önleyici yazılımsal bileşenler üzerine gerçekleştirilmesine dair önerilerde
bulunulmuştur.

Keywords

Finansal Manipülasyon, Kripto Para, Jump Difüzyon

A TWO STAGE ANALYSIS OF PUMP & DUMP MANIPULATIONS ON THE CYRPTOCURRENCY MARKET

Abstract

Aim of this study is to document and analyze the manipulative
transactions in the cryptocurrency market. With this purpose, manipulative
price jumps in the cryptocurrency markets are discussed in two stages. In the
first stage of the study, an active account was created within Binance, a
crypto stock exchange, and it was involved in pump and dump manipulations
working with groups communicating over Telegram. As a result of a series of
operations lasting only 30 seconds, a 25% rate of return was achieved. In
addition, it has been determined that, these manipulations target young markets
with low transaction volumes. Based on these findings, a Jump-Diffusion analysis
was applied on Bitcoin price series using 1,162,887 high-frequency observations
on Bitcoin price series for the purpose of measuring the reactions of mature
markets to these manipulation attempts. According to findings, it was observed
that cryptocurrencies gained immunity against manipulations after reaching a
certain maturity. As a result of the study, it was concluded that new
technologically successful crypto currencies were not in demand due to
prevalence of manipulations. Future work has been advised to be made in the
cryptocurrencies on the manipulation-preventing software components.

Keywords

Financial Manipulation, Cryptocurrency, Jump Diffusion

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