The Relationship between Terror, Economic Growth and Young Unemployment: Panel VAR Analysis

Year 2021, Volume: 35 Issue: 2, 697 - 719, 18.04.2021

Serhat Alpağut

https://doi.org/10.16951/atauniiibd.841210

Cited By: 2

Abstract

Terör, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Genç İşsizlik Arasındaki İlişki: Panel VAR Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2003-2018 döneminde terörden en çok etkilenen 11 ülkede (Afganistan, Pakistan, Mısır, Hindistan, Türkiye, Irak, Yemen, Nijerya, Filipinler, Libya, İsrail) terör, büyüme ve genç işsizlik arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktır. Çalışmada, yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan CADF panel birim kök testi ile değişkenlerin durağanlık sınaması yapılmıştır. Ayrıca değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmak için Panel VAR ve Panel Granger Nedensellik analizleri kullanılmıştır. Ampirik bulgular, genç işsizliğin büyümeye göre terörden daha fazla etkilendiğini ortaya koymaktadır. İlaveten, terörden genç işsizliğe, doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Bu sebeple genç işsizlik oranında yapılacak iyileştirmelerin terör faaliyetlerini azaltabileceği belirtilmektedir.

Keywords

Terör, Büyüme, İşsizlik, Genç İşsizlik, Panel VAR, Panel Granger, Etki Tepki Analizi, Varyans Ayrıştırma

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