Yer Sistem Modellerinin Son Buzul Maksimumu İklim Ardgörülerinin Holdridge Biyomları ve Paleobuzul Alanları ile Değerlendirilmesi

Year 2023, Volume: 21 Issue: 2, 394 - 426, 30.10.2023

Erkan Yılmaz , Serdar Yeşilyurt

https://doi.org/10.33688/aucbd.1290590

Abstract

Geçmiş dönem iklim koşullarını anlamak için kullanılan yöntemlerden biri olan iklim modeli verileri ile yapılan çalışmalar artmakta, bu çalışmaların hangisinin gerçeği daha iyi yansıttığı konusundaki denkleştirme, sağlama yapma çalışmaları ise daha sınırlı kalmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, 7 farklı iklim modeli ardgörülerinin, çözünürlüğü artırılmış veri setlerinden, Holdridge biyomlarında bulunan buzul alanları üretilmiş, bu alanlar ile Türkiye’deki paleobuzul alanları karşılaştırılmıştır. Çalışmada, 1 km çözünürlüklü veri setleri kullanılmış, elde edilen buzul ve soğuk çöl alanları ile farklı kaynaklar kullanılarak üretilen, Türkiye’nin Son Buzul Maksimumu buzul alanları arasındaki benzerlik ve farklılıklar değerlendirilmiştir. Değerlendirme için, Türkiye paleobuzul alanları bölgelere ayrılmış, bu sayede hangi iklim modelinin hangi bölgede daha az hatalı sonuçlar verdiği ortaya koyulmuştur. Sonuç olarak, Türkiye’de MPI-ESM-P ve CCSM4 modellerinin daha geniş alanlar için tutarlı sonuçlar verirken, FGOALS2, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MRI-CGCM3 modellerinin bölgesel bazda anlamlı sonuçlar verdiği görülmüştür. MICRO-ESM ve CNRM-CM5 modellerinin ise Türkiye’deki SBM iklim koşullarını yansıtabilmesi için iyileştirmeler yapılması gerektiği ortaya çıkmıştır.

Keywords

Türkiye, İklim modeli doğruluğu, Son Buzul Dönemi

Evaluation of Earth System Models' Last Glacial Maximum climate hindcasts with Holdridge Biomes and paleoglacier areas

Abstract

Studies with climate model data, which is one of the methods used to understand the climatic conditions of the past, are increasing, while the studies of balancing and validating which of these studies better demonstrate the reality remain more limited. In this study, glacier areas in the Holdridge biomes were produced from the datasets of 7 different climate model escapades with enhanced resolution, and these areas were compared with the paleo glacier areas in Turkey. In the study, 1 km resolution data sets were used, and the similarities and differences between the glacier and cold desert areas obtained and Turkey's Last Glacial Maximum glacier areas produced using different sources were evaluated. For the evaluation, Turkey's paleo glacier areas were divided into regions, thus it was revealed which climate model gave less inaccurate results in which region. As a result, it was seen that the MPI-ESM-P and CCSM4 models gave consistent results for larger areas in Turkey, while the FGOALS2, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MRI-CGCM3 models gave significant results on a regional basis. On the other hand, it has been revealed that MICRO-ESM and CNRM-CM5 models need to be improved in order to represent the LGM climate conditions in Turkey.

Keywords

Turkiye, Climate model accuracy, Last Glacial Period

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