Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Eşik Değer Analizi

Year 2019, Volume: 19 Issue: 2, 255 - 270, 17.06.2019

Taner Sekmen , Seher Gülşah Topuz

https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.566793

Cited By: 5

Abstract

Bu çalışma enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisini OECD ülkeleri için sorgulamaktadır. Bu ilişkiyi ortaya çıkarabilmek için 1996-2016 yılları arası veriler panel eşik değer regresyon yöntemleri kullanılarak analiz edilmektedir. Çalışmanın bulguları enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin doğrusal olmadığı yönündedir. Enflasyon eşik değeri OECD ülkeleri için %3,6207 olarak tespit edilmektedir. Enflasyon oranı bu değerin altında iken enflasyonun ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi pozitif fakat istatistiksel olarak anlamsızken enflasyon oranı bu değerin üzerine çıktığında büyüme üzerinde bozucu etkiler yaratmaktadır. Bu bulguların özellikle enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimi uygulayan ülkeler başta olmak üzere para politikasının yürütülmesinde politika yapıcılara yardımcı olması beklenmektedir.

Keywords

Enflasyon, Ekonomik Büyüme, Doğrusal Olmayan Etkiler

References

• Baglan, D., Yoldas, E. (2014). Non-Linearity in The Inflation–Growth Relationship In Developing Economies: Evidence From A Semiparametric Panel Model. Economics Letters, 125(1), 93-96.
• Barro, R. J. (1995). Inflation and Economic Growth. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 35(2), 407–443.
• Barro, R. J. (1996). Inflation and Economic Growth. Federal Reserve of St. Louis Review, 78, 153–169.
• Bick, A. (2010). Threshold Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth In Developing Countries. Economics Letters, 108(2), 126-129.
• Bruno, M. (1995). Does Inflation Really Lower Growth?. Finance and Development, 32(3), 35–38.
• Bruno, M., Easterly, W. (1998). Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 41(1), 3-26.
• Caner, M., Hansen, B.E. (2004). Instrumental Variable Estimation of a Threshold Model. Econometric Theory, 20(5), 813-843.
• David, D., Pedro, G., Paula, H. (2005). Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth: A New Panel-data Approach. Germany: University Library of Munich. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38225/.
• Eggoh, J.C., Khan, M. (2014). On the Non-Linear Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth. Research in Economics, 68, 133–143.
• Espinoza, R.A., Prasad, A., Leon, Mr Hl. (2010). Estimating the Inflation-Growth Nexus: A Smooth Transition Model. International Monetary Fund, 10-76.
• Fischer, S. (1993). The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(2), 485–512.
• Ghosh, A., Phillips, S. (1998). Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful to Your Growth. IMF Staff Papers, 45(4), 672-710.
• González, A., Teräsvırta, T., Van Dıjk, D. (2005). Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models. SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, 604.
• Gylfason, T., Herbertsson, T. (2001). Does Inflation Matter for Growth. Japan and the World Economy, 13(4), 405-428.
• Hansen, B. E. (1999). Threshold Effects in Non-Dynamic Panels: Estimating, Testing and Inference. Journal of Econometrics, 93, 345–368.
• Hansen, B. E. (2000). Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation. Econometrica, 68(3), 575-603.
• Ibarra, R., Danilo T. (2011). The Relationship between Inflation and Growth: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach For Developed and Developing Countries. Banco Central del Uruguay Working Paper Series, 6.
• Khan, M. S., Ssnhadji, A. S. (2001). Threshold Effects in The Relationship Between Inflation and Growth. IMF Staff papers, 48(1), 1-21.
• Kremer, S., Bick, A., Nautz, D. (2013). Inflation and Growth: New Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis. Empirical Economics, 44(2), 861-878.
• Lee, C., Wong, S. Y. (2005). Inflationary Threshold Effects in The Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence From Taiwan And Japan. Journal of Economic Development, 30(1), 49.
• Levine, R., Renelt, D. (1992). A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions. American Economic Review, 82(4), 942–963.
• Levine, R., Zervos, S. J. (1993). What We Have Learned About Policy and Growth From Crosscountry Regressions. American Economic Review, 83(2), 426–430.
• Li, M. (2006). Inflation and Economic Growth: Threshold Effects and Transmission Mechanisms. Department of Economics, University of Alberta, 2(5), 8-14.
• López-Villavicencio, A., Mignon, V. (2011). On the impact of inflation on output growth: Does the level of inflation matter?. Journal of Macroeconomics, 33(3), 455–464.
• Omay, T., Kan, E. Ö. (2010). Re-examining the threshold effects in the inflation–growth nexus with cross-sectionally dependent non-linear panel: Evidence from six industrialized economies. Economic Modelling, 27(5), 996-1005.
• Pollin, R., Zhu, A. (2006). Inflation and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Nonlinear Analysis. Journal of post Keynesian economics, 28(4), 593-614.
• Sarel, M. (1996). Non-Linear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth. IMF Staff Papers, 43(1), 199–215.
• Seleteng, M., Bıttencourt, M., Van Eyden, R. (2013). Non-Linearities in Inflation Growth Nexus in The SADC Region: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach. Economic Modelling, 30, 149–156.
• Sepehri, A., Moshiri, S. (2004). Inflation‐Growth Profiles Across Countries: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries. International Review of Applied Economics, 18(2), 191-207.
• Thanh, S. D. (2015). Threshold Effects of Inflation on Growth in The ASEAN-5 Countries: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 20(38), 41-48.
• Vaona, A., Schiavo, S. (2007). Nonparametric and Semiparametric Evidence on The Long-Run Effects of Inflation on Growth. Economics Letters, 94(3), 452-458.
• Vinayagathasan, T. (2013). Inflation and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis For Asian Economies. Journal of Asian Economics, 26, 31–41.