Nüfus, Yaşam Beklentisi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin ARDL Yöntemi ile Analizi: Türkiye Örneği

Year 2023, Volume: 23 Issue: 2, 481 - 500, 04.07.2023

Havva Nesrin Tiryaki , Aykut Ekinci

https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.1163964

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Nüfus artışı bir ülke ekonomisi üzerinde önemli etkiye sahiptir. Nüfus artışı ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin önemi hem büyüme teorisyenlerince hem de kalkınma iktisatçıları tarafından kabul edilmektedir. Ancak nüfus ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiye yönelik literatürde tam bir görüş birliği sağlanamamıştır. Bu konuda üç farklı görüş bulunmaktadır. Bazı araştırmacılar nüfusun ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumlu bir etkisi olduğunu savunurken diğerleri etkinin olumsuz olduğunu iddia etmektedir. Bazı çalışmalarda ise iki değişken arasında ilişki bulunamamıştır. Bu makalede, nüfus ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişki yaşam beklentisi, enflasyon ve sermaye oluşumu değişkenleri de dahil ederek Türkiye örneğinden hareketle 1968-2019 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak ARDL sınır testi analizi ile incelenmiştir. Araştırma bulgularına göre, Türkiye’de nüfus kısa dönemde ekonomik büyümeyi negatif etkilerken uzun dönemde pozitif etkilemektedir. Yaşam beklentisi ve sermaye oluşumu büyümeyi kısa ve uzun dönemde pozitif etkilerken enflasyon değişkeni uzun dönemde negatif etkiye sahiptir.

Keywords

Nüfus, Ekonomik Büyüme, Yaşam Beklentisi, Enflasyon, ARDL

Analysis of the Relationship between Population, Life Expectancy, and Economic Growth with ARDL Method: The Case of Turkey

Abstract

Population growth has a significant impact on a country's economy. The importance of the relationship between population growth and economic growth is accepted by both growth theorists and development economists. However, the literature has no consensus on the relationship between population and economic growth. There are three different views on this issue. Some researchers argue that population positively affects economic growth, while others argue that the effect is negative. In some studies, no correlation was found between these two variables. In this article, the long-term and short-term correlation between population and economic growth, including life expectancy, inflation, and capital formation variables, is analyzed with ARDL bounds test analysis using annual data for the period 1968-2019, based on the case of Turkey. According to the research findings, while the population in Turkey affects economic growth negatively in the short term, it has a positive effect in the long term. The life expectancy and capital formation affect economic growth positively in the short and long run but the inflation variable has a negative effect in the long run.

Keywords

Population, Economic Growth, Life Expectancy, Inflation, ARDL

References

• Acemoglu, D., ve Johnson, S. (2007). Disease and development: the effect of life expectancy on economic growth. Journal of political Economy, 115(6), 925-985. https://doi.org/10.1086/529000
• Afzal, M. (2009). Population growth and economic development in Pakistan. The Open Demography Journal, 2(1), 1-7. doi: 10.2174/1874918600902010001
• Aghion, P. ve Howitt, P. (1992). A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction. Econometrica, 60(2), 323–351. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951599
• Ahmad, N. ve Nayyab, S. (2021). Impact of Demographic Variables on Economic Growth in South Asian Countries: A Panel Data Analysis. Sustainable Business and Society in Emerging Economies, 3(1), 49-58. doi: https://doi.org/10.26710/sbsee.v3i1.1814
• Aidi, H. O., Emecheta, C. ve Ngwudiobu, I. M. (2016). Population and Economic growth in Nigeria: Is there an empirical evidence of causality. International Journal Advances in Social Science and Humanities, 4(2), 59-66. Erişim adresi: https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/234647596.pdf
• Akinsola, F. A. ve Odhiambo, N. M. (2017). Inflation and economic growth: A review of the international literature. Comparative Economic Research, 20(3), 41-56. doi: 10.1515/cer-2017-0019
• Ali, S., Alam, K., Islam, S. ve Hossain, M. (2015). An empirical analysis of population growth on economic development: The case study of Bangladesh. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 3(3), 252-259. doi: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20150303.21
• Banerjee, A., Dolado, J. J., Galbraith, J. W. ve Hendry, D. (1993). Co-integration, error correction, and the econometric analysis of non-stationary data. New York: Oxford University Press.
• Barro, R. J. (2013). Inflation and economic growth. Annals of Economics and Finance, 14(1), 121-144. Erişim adresi: https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.295.9208&rep=rep1&type=pdf
• Barro, R. J. ve Becker, G. S. (1989). Fertility choice in a model of economic growth. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 57(2), 481-501. doi: 10.2307/1912563
• Becker, G. S., Glaeser, E. L. ve Murphy, K. M. (1999). Population and economic growth. American Economic Review, 89(2), 145-149. doi: 10.1257/aer.89.2.145
• Berber, M. ve Artan, S. (2004). Enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği (No. 2004/21). Discussion Paper. No: 2004/21, Turkish Association, Ankara. Erişim adresi: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/83280
• Bloom, D. E. ve Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia. The World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), 419-455. doi: 10.1093/wber/12.3.419
• Bloom, D. E., Canning, D. ve Fink, G. (2010). Implications of population ageing for economic growth. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 26(4), 583-612. doi: 10.1093/oxrep/grq038
• Bloom, D. E., Canning, D. ve Sevilla, J. (2001). Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition. NBER Working Papers, (8685), 1-87. doi: 10.3386/w8685
• Boserup, E., ve Chambers, R. (2014). The conditions of agricultural growth: The economics of agrarian change under population pressure. London: Routledge. doi: 10.4324/9781315070360
• Coale, A. J. ve Hoover, E. (1958). Population growth and economic development in low income countries. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
• Dao, M. Q. (2012). Population and economic growth in developing countries. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 2(1), 6. Erişim adresi: https://hrmars.com/papers_submitted/8747/population-and-economic-growth-in-developing-countries.pdf
• Darrat, A. F., ve Al-Yousif, Y. K. (1999). On the Long-Run Relationship between Population and Economic Growth: Some Time Series Evidence for Developing Countries. Eastern Economic Journal, 25(3), 301–313. Erişim adresi: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40325933
• Datta, K. ve Mukhopadhyay, C. K. (2011). Relationship between inflation and economic growth in Malaysia-An econometric review. In International Conference on Economics and Finance Research, 4(1), 415-419. Erişim adresi: http://www.ipedr.com/vol4/82-F10100.pdf
• Demir, O., ve Özkaya, Y. (2021). Nüfusun yaş yapisi-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi; en büyük 20 ekonomi örneği. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 1(41), 17-32. doi: 10.35343/kosbed.768801
• Dikmen, N. (2022). Türkiye’de nüfus artışı ve iktisadi büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi, Journal of Social, Humanities and Administrative Sciences, 8(51), 473-485. doi: 10.29228/JOSH AS.61789
• Dornbusch, R., Fischer, S. ve Startz, R. (2011). Macroeconomics. New York: McGraw-Hill. Ehrlich PR (1968) Population control or race oblivion? The population bomb. New York: Ballantine Books.
• Epaphra, M. (2016). Nonlinearities in inflation and growth nexus: the case of Tanzania. Journal of Economics and Political Economy, 3(3), 471-572. doi: 10.20944/preprints201608.0222.v2
• Erdoğan, S., ve Bozkurt, H. (2008). Türkiye’de yaşam beklentisi-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: ARDL modeli ile bir analiz. Bilgi Ekonomisi ve Yönetimi Dergisi, 3(1), 25-38. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/40506
• Fischer, S. (1993). The role of macroeconomic factors in growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 485-512. doi: 10.1016/0304-3932(93)90027-D.
• Friedman, M. (1977). Nobel lecture: inflation and unemployment. Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 451-472. doi: 10.1086/260579
• Galor, O. ve Weil, D. N. (2000). Population, technology, and growth: From Malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond. American Economic Review, 90(4), 806-828. doi: 10.1257/aer.90.4.806
• Grossman, G. M. ve Helpman, E. (1991). Trade, knowledge spillovers, and growth. European Economic Review, 35(2-3), 517-526. doi: 10.1016/0014-2921(91)90153-A
• Günsoy, G. ve Tekeli, S. (2015). Nüfusun yaşlanması ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye üzerine bir analiz. Amme İdaresi Dergisi, 48(1), 35-87. Erişim adresi: https://earsiv.anadolu.edu.tr/xmlui/handle/11421/19086
• Hasan, M. S. (2010). The long-run relationship between population and per capita income growth in China. Journal of Policy Modeling, 32(3), 355-372. doi: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2009.09.005
• He, L., ve Li, N. (2020). The linkages between life expectancy and economic growth: some new evidence. Empirical Economics, 58, 2381-2402. doi: 10.10071s00181-018-1612-7.
• Headey, D. D. ve Hodge, A. (2009). The effect of population growth on economic growth: A meta‐regression analysis of the macroeconomic literature. Population and Development Review, 35(2), 221-248. doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2009.00274.x
• Huang, T. H. ve Xie, Z. (2013). Population and economic growth: a simultaneous equation perspective. Applied Economics, 45(27), 3820-3826. doi: 10.1080/00036846.2012.734596
• Jones, C. I. (1995). Time series tests of endogenous growth models. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 495-525. doi: /10.2307/2118448
• Karagöz, H. (2021). Nüfus yaşlanmasının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri: OECD ülkeleri örneği. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 20(42), 1544-1565. doi: 10.46928/iticusbe.987104
• Kelley, A., ve Schmidt, R. (2001). Economic and Demographic Change: A Synthesis of Models, Findings. and Perspectives. N. Birdsall, A. Kelley, S. Sinding (Ed.), Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World (s. 67-105) içinde, New York: Oxford University Press.
• Kuznets, S. (1967). Population and economic growth. Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 111(3), 170-193. Erişim adresi: https://www.jstor.org/stable/985714
• Lee, H. H. ve Shin, K. (2019). Nonlinear effects of population aging on economic growth. Japan and the World Economy, 51, 100963. doi: 10.1016/j.japwor.2019.100963
• Lopreite, M. ve Zhu, Z. (2020). The effects of ageing population on health expenditure and economic growth in China: A Bayesian-VAR approach. Social Science and Medicine, 265, 113513. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113513
• Mahmoudinia, D., Hosseini Kondelaji, M. H. ve Jafari, S. (2020). The causality relationship between population, economic growth and capital stock in OIC countries and its policy aspects. International Journal of New Political Economy, 1(2), 117-132. doi: 10.29252/JEP.1.2.117
• Makuria, A. G. (2013). The relationship between inflation and economic growth Ethiopia. Erişim adresi: http://uir.unisa.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10500/13633/dissertation_makuria_ ag.pdf?sequence=1.
• Malthus, T. R. (1986). An essay on the principle of population (1798). The Works of Thomas Robert Malthus, London, Pickering & Chatto Publishers, 1, 1-139. Erişim adresi: http://la.utexas.edu/users/hcleaver/368/368MalthusPopCh10table.pdf
• Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D. ve Weil, D. N. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 407-437. doi: 10.2307/2118477
• Mundell, R. (1963). Inflation and real interest. Journal of Political Economy, 71(3), 280-283. doi: /10.1086/258771
• Ngangue, N., ve Manfred, K. (2015). The impact of life expectancy on economic growth in developing countries. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 5(4), 653-660. doi: 10.18488/journal.aefr/2015.5.4/102.4.653.660
• Ogunleye, O. O., Owolabi, O. A. ve Mubarak, M. (2018). Population growth and economic growth in Nigeria: An appraisal. International Journal of Management, Accounting and Economics, 5(5), 282-299. Erişim adresi:https://www.researchgate.net/profile/OlusogoOgunleye/publication/325995144_Population_Growth_and_Economic_Growth_in_Nigeria_An_Appraisal/links/5b32317eaca2720785e9421b/Population-Growth-and-Economic-Growth-in-Nigeria-An-Appraisal.pdf
• Pentecost, E.J. (2000). Macroeconomics: An open Economy Approach, New York: Macmillan Press Ltd.
• Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R.J., (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. doi: 10.1002/jae.616
• Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., (1999). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis, S. Strom (Ed.) Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, (s.371-408) içinde Cambridge University Press.
• Peter, A. ve Bakari, I. (2018). Impact of population growth on economic growth in Africa: A dynamic panel data approach (1980-2015). Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Science (PJHSS), 6(4), 412-427. Erişim adresi: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3331577
• Peterson, E. W. F. (2017). The role of population in economic growth. Sage Open, 7(4), 2158244017736094. doi: 10.1177/2158244017736094
• Prettner, K. (2013). Population aging and endogenous economic growth. Journal of population economics, 26(2), 811-834. doi: 10.1007/s00148-012-0441-9
• Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5, Part 2), 71-102. doi: 10.1086/261725
• Segerstrom, P. S. (1998). Endogenous growth without scale effects. American Economic Review, 88(5), 1290-1310. Erişim adresi: https://www.jstor.org/stable/116872
• Simon, J. (1981). The ultimate resource. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
• Singha, K. ve Jaman, M. (2013). Does Population Growth Affect Economic Development? A Study of India. Journal of International Economics (0976-0792), 4(2), 41-51. Erişim adresi: https://eds.p.ebscohost.com/eds/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?vid=0&sid=3e5da426-7822-4bb0-b734-944cadfaf114%40redis
• Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94. doi: 10.2307/1884513
• Stungwa, S. ve Daw, O. D. (2021). Infrastructure development and population growth on economic growth in South Africa. Erişim adresi: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/110884/
• Tartiyus, E. H., Dauda, T. M. ve Peter, A. (2015). Impact of population growth on economic growth in Nigeria. IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Science (IOSRJHSS), 20(4), 115-123. doi: 10.9790/0837-2045115123
• Thornton, J. (2001). Population growth and economic growth: long‐run evidence from Latin America. Southern Economic Journal, 68(2), 464-468. doi: 10.1002/j.2325-8012.2001.tb00431.x
• Tobin, J. (1965). Money and economic growth. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 33(4), 671-684. doi: 10.2307/1910352
• Wollie, G. (2018). The Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth in Ethiopia. Budapest International Research and Critics Institute-Journal (BIRCI-Journal), 1(3), 264-271. doi: 10.33258/birci.v1i3.73