Lojistik Performansın Türkiye’nin İhracatı Üzerindeki Etkisi

Year 2024, SBF Dergisi Erken Görünüm, 1 - 18

Mustafa Emir Yücel

https://doi.org/10.33630/ausbf.1523835

Abstract

Bu çalışma Türkiye’nin lojistik performans indeksinin (LPI) mal ihracatı üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Çalışmada Türkiye’nin en fazla ihracat yaptığı 20 ülkeye ve Türkiye’ye ait 2007, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016 ve 2018 yıllarına ait veriler kullanılmıştır. Veri ve örneklem yapısı belirlenirken, Dünya Bankası tarafından oluşturulan LPI ve Türkiye’nin en fazla ihracat yaptığı ülkelerle ilgili tüm yıllara ait verilerin bulunabilirliği göz önüne alınmıştır. Panel veri yapısına sahip olan modelde ülke etkisinin yapısı ve yatay kesit bağımlılığı göz önüne alındığında, tahmin yöntemi olarak uygulanabilir Genelleştirilmiş En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi (FGLS) kullanılmıştır. Tahmin sonuçlarından elde edilen bulgulara göre, Türkiye’nin LPI skorunun Türkiye’nin ihracatı üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif bir etkisi bulunmaktadır. Türkiye’nin LPI skorunda ortaya çıkacak %1 oranındaki artış, ihracatını yaklaşık olarak %0.77 oranında artırmaktadır. Ayrıca, Türkiye’nin ihracat ortaklarının LPI skoru Türkiye’nin ihracatı üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etki göstermemektedir. Çalışma bulgularına göre, reel döviz kurunun ihracat üzerinde büyük bir etki gösterdiği sonucuna da ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

: Lojistik performans, İhracat, Dış ticaret

Ethical Statement

Bu çalışmanın ilk bulguları 5. Ulaştırma ve Lojistik Ulusal Kongresinde sözlü olarak sunulmuştur.

The Impact of Logistics Performance on Turkey's Exports

Abstract

This study examines the impact of Turkey's logistics performance index (LPI) on Turkey’s export value. I use six years data (2007, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018) from Turkey and its major export partners. While determining the data and sample structure, two aspects were taken into account 1) the years when the LPI score was published by the World Bank 2) the publication of this data for all years for the countries to which Turkey exports. Considering the country effect and cross-section dependency in the model, the feasible generalized least squares method (FGLS) is used as the estimation method. According to the findings obtained from the estimation results, Turkey's LPI score has a statistically significant and positive effect on Turkey's exports. Specifically, 1% increase in Turkey's LPI score will increase its exports by approximately 0.77%. In addition, the LPI score of Turkey's export partners does not show a statistically significant effect on Turkey's exports. It is also concluded that the real exchange rate has a great effect on Turkey’s export value. However, per capita income of the trading partners has a significant effect on Turkey’s export value. Although the openness ratio of traded countries has a negative sign, it is ineffective as an absolute value.

Keywords

Logistics performance, Export, Foreign trade

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