FORWARD GUIDENCE AS A SEPARATE UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY TOOL

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 16 Sayı: 1, 35 - 56, 03.04.2016

Meryem Filiz Baştürk

https://doi.org/10.11616/basbed.vi.455756

Öz

In the aftermath of the
financial crisis of 2008, short-term interest rates used as a conventional
monetary policy tool were lowered to zero by the central banks of the developed
countries. Unconventional monetary policy tools were also adopted. One example of
these unconventional monetary policy tools is forward guidance. The aim of
forward guidance is to signal the future policy actions of central banks.
Although forward guidance was used by some central banks before the financial
crisis, it became more common in the aftermath of the crisis.

The purpose of this study is
to evaluate the policy of forward guidance adopted when interest rates are at
or near zero, or in other words when there is zero lower bound. In this study,
the policy of forward guidance adopted by developed countries is analyzed under
three categories, which is in line with the classification commonly adopted in
the literature. In accordance with this classification, the study will first
focus on forward guidance adopted by central banks before the financial crisis,
followed by the detailed analysis of the policy adopted in the aftermath of the
crisis. Finally, it discusses whether
this policy can be used as a monetary policy
tool.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Unconventional Monetary Policy, Forward Guidance, Financial Crisis, Developed Country Experiences

GELENEKSEL OLMAYAN BİR PARA POLİTİKASI ARACI OLARAK SÖZLE YÖNLENDİRME

Öz

2008 Finansal krizinin
ardından gelişmiş ülke merkez bankaları tarafından geleneksel para politikası
aracı olarak kullanılan kısa vadeli faiz oranları sıfıra yakın bir düzeye
indirilmiştir. Ayrıca geleneksel olmayan para politikası araçları da kullanılmaya
başlanmıştır. Bu doğrultuda gelişmiş ülke merkez bankaları tarafından uygulanan
politikalardan biri de sözle yönlendirme politikasıdır. Politikanın amacı
merkez bankasının politika oranlarının gelecekteki seyrine ilişkin sinyal
vermektir. Bu politika her ne kadar finansal krizden önceki dönemde bazı merkez
bankaları tarafından kullanılmış olsa da, finansal krizin ardından aktif bir
şekilde kullanılmaya başlanmıştır.

Çalışmanın amacı, sözle
yönlendirme politikasının faiz oranlarının sıfır olduğu bir düzeyde
kullanılmasının değerlendirmesini yapmaktır. Çalışmada gelişmiş ülkelerin
uyguladıkları sözle yönlendirme politikası literatürdeki yaygın sınıflandırmaya
paralel olarak üçe ayrılarak incelenmiştir. Bu sınıflandırmaya paralel olarak
öncelikle finansal krizden önce merkez bankalarının sözle yönlendirme
politikaları üzerinde durulmuş, ardından krizden sonraki dönemde uyguladıkları
söze yönlendirme politikaları ayrıntılı olarak ele alınmıştır. Son olarak bu
politikanın para politikasının bir aracı olarak kullanılıp kullanılmayacağı tartışılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Geleneksel Olmayan Para Politikaları, Sözle Yönlendirme, Finansal Kriz, Gelişmiş Ülke Deneyimleri

Kaynakça

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