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D-8 Ülkelerinde Askeri Harcamalar ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Panel Veri Analizi

Year 2020, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 141 - 169, 31.08.2020

Dilara Ayla

https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.748492
Cited By: 2

Abstract

Çalışma, 1997 yılında Türkiye liderliğinde oluşturulan Gelişen Sekiz (D-8) Ekonomik İşbirliği Örgütü kapsamında 1997-2018 sürecinde gerçekleşen askeri harcamalar ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin panel veri yöntemi ile incelenmesini içermektedir. Kamu harcamalarının bir kalemi olan askeri harcamalar, gelişen dünya ekonomisi paralelinde ekonomik işbirliği örgütleri açısından da son derece önem arz eden bir konumdadır. Bu kapsamda çalışmada, tamamı Müslüman ülkelerden oluşan D-8 ülkelerinin ekonomik büyüme gerçekleşmeleri askeri harcamalar, sabit sermaye oluşumları, dışa açıklık oranı ve işsizlik oranı değişkenleri kullanılarak dengeli panel analizi ile incelenmiştir. Analiz sonucunda elde edilen bulgulara göre, askeri harcamaların GSYİH içerisindeki payının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir etkisine rastlanmamakla birlikte, askeri harcamaların ithalat içerisindeki payının artması halinde büyüme üzerinde negatif bir etkinin söz konusu olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonucun ekonomik bakımdan dışa bağımlılık ile açıklanması mümkündür. Nitekim yatırım kaynaklarının askeri harcamalara yönelmesi ve bu harcamaların ithalat ağırlıklı olması durumunda büyümenin olumsuz etkilenmesi beklentiler dahilindedir. Benzer şekilde dışa açıklık oranında meydana gelen artışların nispi olarak ithalatın ihracattan fazla olmasından kaynaklanması da ekonomik büyümeyi negatif yönde etkileyebilecektir. Ek olarak, sabit sermaye oluşumlarında yaşanan artışların ve işsizlik oranı azalmalarının ise büyüme üzerinde pozitif etkiler yaratması gelişen ülkeler açısından beklenen bir sonuçtur.

Keywords

Ekonomik Büyüme Askeri Harcamalar Sabit Sermaye Oluşumu Dışa Açıklık İşsizlik Panel Veri

References

  • Arellano, M. (1987). Computing robust standard errors for within-groups estimators. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 49(4), 431-434.
  • Arshad, A., Syed, S. H., & Shabbir, G. (2017). Military expenditure and economic growth: a panel data analysis. Forman Journal of Economic Studies, 13, 161-175.
  • Bakırcı, F., Bayrak, R. & Önal, S. (2016). Savunma sanayilerinde toplam faktör verimliliği. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 30(4), 751-769.
  • Baltagi, B. H. & Wu, P. X. (1999). Unequally spaced panel data regressions with AR(1) disturbances. Econometric Theory, 15, 814-823.
  • Bayrak, R. (2019). Does the optimal size of defense expenditure exist? an empirical study on Turkey”, Savunma Bilimleri Dergisi, 18(1), 135-160.
  • Bayrak, R., Bakırcı, F. & Sarıkaya, M. (2015). Savunma sanayinde VZA yöntemiyle etkinlik analizi. Girişimcilik ve Kalkınma Dergisi, 10 (2), 26-50.
  • Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and defense in developing countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2), 271-280.
  • Bhargava, A., Franzini, L. & Narendranathan, W. (1982). Serial correlation and fixed effect models. The Review Of Economic Studies, 49, 533-549.
  • Biswas, B. & Ram. R. (1986). Military spending and economic growth in less developed countries: an augmented model and further evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2), 361-372.
  • Breusch, T. S. & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Brown, M., B. & Forsythe, A., B. (1974). Robust tests for the equality of variances, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 69(346), 364-367.
  • Chang, H. C., Huang, B. N., & Yang, C. W. (2011). Military expenditure and economic growth across different groups: A dynamic panel Granger-causality approach. Economic Modelling, 28(6), 2416-2423.
  • Chen, P. F., Lee, C. C., & Chiu, Y. B. (2014). The nexus between defense expenditure and economic growth: New global evidence. Economic Modelling, 36, 474-483.
  • Compton, R.A. & Paterson, B. (2016). Military spending and growth: the role of institutions. Defence and Peace Economics, 27(3), 301-322.
  • Çevik, S. & Ricco, J. (2018). No buck for the bang: revisiting the military-growth Nexus. Empirica, 45(4), 639-653.
  • Dunne, J. P. & Nikolaidou, E. (2012). Defence spending and economic growth in the EU15. Defence and Peace Economics, 23(6), 537-548.
  • Dunne, P., Nikolaidou, E. & Vougas, D. (2001). Defence spending and economic growth: a causal analysis for Greece and Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 12(1), 5-26.
  • Durgun, Ö. & Timur, M.C. (2017). Savunma harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye analizi. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 54, 126-137.
  • Fredericksen, P. C. & Looney, R. E. (1983). Defense expenditures and economic growth in developing countries. Armed Forces & Society, 9(4), 633-645.
  • Froot, K. A. (1989). Consistent covariance matrix estimation with cross-sectional dependence and heteroskedasticity in financial data. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 24, 333-355.
  • Gerace, M. P. (2002). US military expenditure and economic growth: Some evidence from spectral methods. Defence and Peace Economics (13), 1-11.
  • Giray, F. (2004). Savunma harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 5(1), 181-199.
  • Görkem, H. & Işık, S. (2008). Türkiye’de savunma harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki (1968-2006). Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 25(2), 405-424.
  • Gyimah-Brempong, K. (1989). Defense spending and economic growth in Subsaharan Africa: an econometric investigation. Journal of Peace Research, 26(1), 79-90.
  • Hair, J. F., Bush, R. P., & Ortinau, D. J. (2002). Marketing research: within a changing information environment. McGraw Hill, Second Edition.
  • Hatemi-J, A., Chang, T., Chen, W. Y., Lin, F. L., & Gupta, R. (2018). Asymmetric causality between military expenditures and economic growth in top six defense spenders. Quality & Quantity, 52(3), 1193-1207.
  • Hausman, J. A. (1978). Spesification test in econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
  • Hou, N. & Chen, B. (2013). Military expenditure and economic growth in developing countries: evidence from system GMM estimates. Defence and Peace Economics, 24(3), 183-193.
  • Huang, C. & Mintz, A. (1990). Ridge regression analysis of the defence‐growth tradeoff in The United States. Defence and Peace Ecoınomics, 2(1), 35-40.
  • Huang, C. & Mintz, A. (1991). Defence expenditures and economic growth: the externality effect. Defence Economics, 3(1), 35-40.
  • Kentor, Jeffrey & Kick, E. (2008). Bringing the military back ın: military expenditures and economic growth 1990 to 2003. Journal of World-Systems Research, 14(2), 142-172.
  • Kollias, C. & Paleologou, S.M. (2016). Investment, growth and defense expenditure in the EU15: revisiting the Nexus using SIPRI’s new consistent dataset. Economics of Peace and Security Journal, 11(2), 28-37.
  • Kollias, C. (1997). Defence spending and growth in Turkey 1954-1993: A causal analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 8(2), 189-204.
  • Korkmaz, S. (2015). The effect of military spending on economic growth and unemployment in mediterranean countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(1), 273-280.
  • Kovacevic, T. & Smiljanic, D. (2017). Causality analysis between GDP, defence expenditure and the number of armed forces personnel: the case of Croatia. Ekonomski Pregled, 68(4), 413-431.
  • Kusi, N. K. (1994). Economic growth and defense spending in developing countries: a casual analysis. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 38(1), 152-159.
  • Lacivita, C. J. & Frederiksen P.C. (1991). Defense spending and economic growth and alternative approach to the causality ıssue. Journal of Development Economic, 35 (1), 117-126.
  • Landau, D. (1986). Government and economic growth in the less developed countries: an empirical study for 1960-1980. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 35(1), 35- 75.
  • Lee, C. C. & Chen, S. T. (2007). Do defence expenditures spur GDP? A panel analysis from OECD and non‐OECD countries. Defence and Peace Economics, 18(3), 265-280.
  • Levene, H. (1960). Robust tests for equality of variances. in Olkin I., Ghurye G., Hoeffding W., Madow W. G. and Mann H. B. (eds.), Contributions to Probability and Statistics: Stanford, California: Stanford University Press, 278-292.
  • Looney, R. E. (1995). The economics of third world defence expenditures, Contemporary Studies in Economic and Financial Analysis, 72, JAI Press, London.
  • Ma, J., Yıwen J. & Xıao, X. (2015). The relationship between military expenditures and economic growth a case study of the United States, Russia, Japan, India and China. Review of the Air Force Academy, 2(29), 79-90.
  • Murdoch, J. C., Pi, C.‐R. & Sandler, T. (1997). The impact of defense and non‐defense public spending on growth in Asia and Latin America. Defence and Peace Economics, 8, 205-224.
  • Özkan T. (1991). Silahsızlanma görüşmeleri ve savunma harcamalarına etkisi, Silahlı Kuvvetler Dergisi, 110 (329).
  • Özsoy, O. (2000). The defence growth relation: Evidence from Turkey. In The Economics of Regional Security: NATO, the Mediterranean, Southern Africa, Editors: J. Brauer and K. Hartley, Amsterdam: Harwood Academic, 139–159.
  • Papanikos, G.T. (2015). Military spending, ınternational trade and economic growth in the mediterranean basin. Athens Journal of Mediterranean Studies, 1(2), 187-194. Rogers, W. H. (1993). Regression standard errors in clustered samples. Stata Technical Bulletin, 13, 19-23.
  • Saba, C. S. & Ngepah, N. (2019). Military expenditure and economic growth: evidence from a heterogeneous panel of African countries. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 32(1), 3586-3606.
  • Turan, T., Karakaş, M., & Özer, H. A. (2018). Askeri Harcamalar ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik Analizi. Maliye Dergisi, 175, 140-153. Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2012). Panel veri ekonometrisi. Beta Yayınevi, İstanbul.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2018). Panel zaman serileri analizi-Stata uygulamalı. Beta Yayınevi, İstanbul.
  • Yıldırım, J., Sezgin, S. & Öcal, N. (2005). Military expenditure and economic growth in Middle Eastern Countries: A dinamic panel data analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 16(4), 283-285.

Year 2020, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 141 - 169, 31.08.2020

Dilara Ayla

https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.748492
Cited By: 2

Abstract

The study involves the examination of the relationship between military expenditures and economic growth within Developing Eight (D-8) Organization for Economic Cooperation, which was formed under the leadership of Turkey in 1997, from 1997 to 2018 by using panel data method. Military spending, which is an item of public spending, is also very important for economic cooperation organizations in parallel with the evolving global economy. In this context, the economic growth of D-8 countries, which are all Muslim countries, was analyzed through the balanced panel analysis model using the variables of military expenditures, fixed capital formation, openness rate and the unemployment rate in the study. According to the findings obtained from the analysis, it was determined that although the share of military expenditures in GDP is not statistically significant, there was a negative impact on growth if the share of military expenditures in imports increases. It is possible to explain this result with economically foreign dependency. As a matter of fact, in case the investment resources are directed towards military expenditures and these expenditures are imported goods, the growth can be affected adversely. Similarly, the increase in the openness ratio led by the fact that imports are relatively more than exports may also affect the economic growth negatively. In addition, the increases in fixed capital formation and unemployment rate decreases are expected to have positive effects on growth for developing countries.

Keywords

Economic growth military expenditures fixed capital formation openness unemployment panel data

References

  • Arellano, M. (1987). Computing robust standard errors for within-groups estimators. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 49(4), 431-434.
  • Arshad, A., Syed, S. H., & Shabbir, G. (2017). Military expenditure and economic growth: a panel data analysis. Forman Journal of Economic Studies, 13, 161-175.
  • Bakırcı, F., Bayrak, R. & Önal, S. (2016). Savunma sanayilerinde toplam faktör verimliliği. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 30(4), 751-769.
  • Baltagi, B. H. & Wu, P. X. (1999). Unequally spaced panel data regressions with AR(1) disturbances. Econometric Theory, 15, 814-823.
  • Bayrak, R. (2019). Does the optimal size of defense expenditure exist? an empirical study on Turkey”, Savunma Bilimleri Dergisi, 18(1), 135-160.
  • Bayrak, R., Bakırcı, F. & Sarıkaya, M. (2015). Savunma sanayinde VZA yöntemiyle etkinlik analizi. Girişimcilik ve Kalkınma Dergisi, 10 (2), 26-50.
  • Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and defense in developing countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2), 271-280.
  • Bhargava, A., Franzini, L. & Narendranathan, W. (1982). Serial correlation and fixed effect models. The Review Of Economic Studies, 49, 533-549.
  • Biswas, B. & Ram. R. (1986). Military spending and economic growth in less developed countries: an augmented model and further evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2), 361-372.
  • Breusch, T. S. & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Brown, M., B. & Forsythe, A., B. (1974). Robust tests for the equality of variances, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 69(346), 364-367.
  • Chang, H. C., Huang, B. N., & Yang, C. W. (2011). Military expenditure and economic growth across different groups: A dynamic panel Granger-causality approach. Economic Modelling, 28(6), 2416-2423.
  • Chen, P. F., Lee, C. C., & Chiu, Y. B. (2014). The nexus between defense expenditure and economic growth: New global evidence. Economic Modelling, 36, 474-483.
  • Compton, R.A. & Paterson, B. (2016). Military spending and growth: the role of institutions. Defence and Peace Economics, 27(3), 301-322.
  • Çevik, S. & Ricco, J. (2018). No buck for the bang: revisiting the military-growth Nexus. Empirica, 45(4), 639-653.
  • Dunne, J. P. & Nikolaidou, E. (2012). Defence spending and economic growth in the EU15. Defence and Peace Economics, 23(6), 537-548.
  • Dunne, P., Nikolaidou, E. & Vougas, D. (2001). Defence spending and economic growth: a causal analysis for Greece and Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 12(1), 5-26.
  • Durgun, Ö. & Timur, M.C. (2017). Savunma harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye analizi. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 54, 126-137.
  • Fredericksen, P. C. & Looney, R. E. (1983). Defense expenditures and economic growth in developing countries. Armed Forces & Society, 9(4), 633-645.
  • Froot, K. A. (1989). Consistent covariance matrix estimation with cross-sectional dependence and heteroskedasticity in financial data. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 24, 333-355.
  • Gerace, M. P. (2002). US military expenditure and economic growth: Some evidence from spectral methods. Defence and Peace Economics (13), 1-11.
  • Giray, F. (2004). Savunma harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 5(1), 181-199.
  • Görkem, H. & Işık, S. (2008). Türkiye’de savunma harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki (1968-2006). Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 25(2), 405-424.
  • Gyimah-Brempong, K. (1989). Defense spending and economic growth in Subsaharan Africa: an econometric investigation. Journal of Peace Research, 26(1), 79-90.
  • Hair, J. F., Bush, R. P., & Ortinau, D. J. (2002). Marketing research: within a changing information environment. McGraw Hill, Second Edition.
  • Hatemi-J, A., Chang, T., Chen, W. Y., Lin, F. L., & Gupta, R. (2018). Asymmetric causality between military expenditures and economic growth in top six defense spenders. Quality & Quantity, 52(3), 1193-1207.
  • Hausman, J. A. (1978). Spesification test in econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
  • Hou, N. & Chen, B. (2013). Military expenditure and economic growth in developing countries: evidence from system GMM estimates. Defence and Peace Economics, 24(3), 183-193.
  • Huang, C. & Mintz, A. (1990). Ridge regression analysis of the defence‐growth tradeoff in The United States. Defence and Peace Ecoınomics, 2(1), 35-40.
  • Huang, C. & Mintz, A. (1991). Defence expenditures and economic growth: the externality effect. Defence Economics, 3(1), 35-40.
  • Kentor, Jeffrey & Kick, E. (2008). Bringing the military back ın: military expenditures and economic growth 1990 to 2003. Journal of World-Systems Research, 14(2), 142-172.
  • Kollias, C. & Paleologou, S.M. (2016). Investment, growth and defense expenditure in the EU15: revisiting the Nexus using SIPRI’s new consistent dataset. Economics of Peace and Security Journal, 11(2), 28-37.
  • Kollias, C. (1997). Defence spending and growth in Turkey 1954-1993: A causal analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 8(2), 189-204.
  • Korkmaz, S. (2015). The effect of military spending on economic growth and unemployment in mediterranean countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(1), 273-280.
  • Kovacevic, T. & Smiljanic, D. (2017). Causality analysis between GDP, defence expenditure and the number of armed forces personnel: the case of Croatia. Ekonomski Pregled, 68(4), 413-431.
  • Kusi, N. K. (1994). Economic growth and defense spending in developing countries: a casual analysis. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 38(1), 152-159.
  • Lacivita, C. J. & Frederiksen P.C. (1991). Defense spending and economic growth and alternative approach to the causality ıssue. Journal of Development Economic, 35 (1), 117-126.
  • Landau, D. (1986). Government and economic growth in the less developed countries: an empirical study for 1960-1980. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 35(1), 35- 75.
  • Lee, C. C. & Chen, S. T. (2007). Do defence expenditures spur GDP? A panel analysis from OECD and non‐OECD countries. Defence and Peace Economics, 18(3), 265-280.
  • Levene, H. (1960). Robust tests for equality of variances. in Olkin I., Ghurye G., Hoeffding W., Madow W. G. and Mann H. B. (eds.), Contributions to Probability and Statistics: Stanford, California: Stanford University Press, 278-292.
  • Looney, R. E. (1995). The economics of third world defence expenditures, Contemporary Studies in Economic and Financial Analysis, 72, JAI Press, London.
  • Ma, J., Yıwen J. & Xıao, X. (2015). The relationship between military expenditures and economic growth a case study of the United States, Russia, Japan, India and China. Review of the Air Force Academy, 2(29), 79-90.
  • Murdoch, J. C., Pi, C.‐R. & Sandler, T. (1997). The impact of defense and non‐defense public spending on growth in Asia and Latin America. Defence and Peace Economics, 8, 205-224.
  • Özkan T. (1991). Silahsızlanma görüşmeleri ve savunma harcamalarına etkisi, Silahlı Kuvvetler Dergisi, 110 (329).
  • Özsoy, O. (2000). The defence growth relation: Evidence from Turkey. In The Economics of Regional Security: NATO, the Mediterranean, Southern Africa, Editors: J. Brauer and K. Hartley, Amsterdam: Harwood Academic, 139–159.
  • Papanikos, G.T. (2015). Military spending, ınternational trade and economic growth in the mediterranean basin. Athens Journal of Mediterranean Studies, 1(2), 187-194. Rogers, W. H. (1993). Regression standard errors in clustered samples. Stata Technical Bulletin, 13, 19-23.
  • Saba, C. S. & Ngepah, N. (2019). Military expenditure and economic growth: evidence from a heterogeneous panel of African countries. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 32(1), 3586-3606.
  • Turan, T., Karakaş, M., & Özer, H. A. (2018). Askeri Harcamalar ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik Analizi. Maliye Dergisi, 175, 140-153. Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2012). Panel veri ekonometrisi. Beta Yayınevi, İstanbul.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2018). Panel zaman serileri analizi-Stata uygulamalı. Beta Yayınevi, İstanbul.
  • Yıldırım, J., Sezgin, S. & Öcal, N. (2005). Military expenditure and economic growth in Middle Eastern Countries: A dinamic panel data analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 16(4), 283-285.
There are 50 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Dilara Ayla 0000-0002-0206-250X

Publication Date August 31, 2020
Submission Date June 5, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 4 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Ayla, D. (2020). D-8 Ülkelerinde Askeri Harcamalar ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Panel Veri Analizi. Bingöl Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(1), 141-169. https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.748492

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