Güneydoğu Avrupa Bölgesi Doğal Gaz Piyasasının Ukrayna-Rusya Savaşı Sonrası Ekopolitiği

Year 2023, Volume: 7 Issue: Prof. Dr. Muammer ERDOĞAN Anısına Kongre Özel Sayısı, 93 - 119, 29.03.2023

Göktuğ Şahin , Mehmet Karan

https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.1253162

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı Ukrayna-Rusya savaşı nedeniyle Avrupa Birliği’nin Rusya’dan doğal gaz alımını kısıtlaması ile ortaya çıkan gelişmeler çerçevesinde, Balkan ülkelerini de kapsayan Avrupa’nın Güneydoğu bölgesindeki doğal gaz piyasasının ekopolitik açıdan incelenmesidir. Çalışmada Türkiye’nin de aralarında olduğu sekiz ülkenin doğal gaz kaynakları, ithalatları ve doğal gaz projeleriyle birlikte doğal gaz tüketimleri ekonomik açıdan incelenmiş ve Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) modelinden faydalanılarak bu ülkelerin potansiyel doğal gaz tüketimleri tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre yıllık olarak bölgenin gözlenen tüketimi 111,5 Bcm iken ima edilen tüketimi 216,9 Bcm’dir. Diğer taraftan Rusya’dan doğal gaz satın alınmadığı bir senaryo göz önüne alındığında, Güneydoğu Avrupa bölgesinin doğal gaz ihtiyacının mevcut yatırım ve imkânlarla karşılanmasının mümkün olmadığı; bölgenin LNG tesisleri ve mevcut boru hatları ile temin edilebilecek doğal gaz miktarının kendi başına yeterli olmadığı gözlemlenmiştir. Ayrıca, bölgenin enerji merkezi olma hedefi olan Yunanistan’ın LNG tesisleri ve mevcut boru hatları ile sağlayabileceği gaz miktarı da yeterli değildir. Bu nedenlerle Rusya, Güneydoğu Avrupa bölgesi doğal gaz pazarında güçlü bir oyuncu olmaya devam ederken, mevcut konjonktürde Türkiye’nin enerji merkezi olma potansiyelinin giderek arttığı söylenebilir.

Keywords

Enerji ekonomisi, enerji piyasaları, enerji tüketimi, doğal gaz boru hatları, tahmin modelleri

Supporting Institution

Bu çalışma TÜBİTAK 3005 (Sosyal ve Beşeri Bilimlerde Yenilikçi Çözümler Araştırma Projeleri Destek Programı) kapsamında desteklenen 121G180 kodlu ve “Güney Gaz Koridoru Ege Havzası Projelerinin, Türkiye ve Avrupa'nın Enerji Arz Güvenliği Kapsamında Doğal Gaz Hub'ı Olma Potansiyelinin İktisadi ve Jeostratejik Analizi” başlıklı proje kapsamında hazırlanmıştır.

Project Number

121G180

Thanks

Çalışmamıza katkılarından ve ilgilerinden dolayı M. Hakan BERUMENT, K. Barış ATICI, Burak PİRGAİP, Gizem ARI, Cem MENTEN, Serkan ŞAHİN, Trevor BREUSCH, BİİBFAD Dergisi Editör Kurulu ve hakemlere teşekkür ederiz.

The Ecopolitics of the Southeast European Region’s Natural Gas Market After the Ukraine-Russia War

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the natural gas market in the Southeast region of Europe, including the Balkan countries, from an ecopolitical perspective within the framework of the developments that emerged with the European Union's restriction of natural gas purchases from Russia due to the Ukraine-Russia war. In the study, natural gas resources, imports, and natural gas consumption of eight countries, including Türkiye, were examined economically, and the potential natural gas consumption of these countries was estimated by benefiting the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model. According to the findings, annually, the observed consumption of the region is 111.5 Bcm, while the implied consumption is 216.9 Bcm. On the other hand, considering a scenario in which natural gas is not purchased from Russia; it is not possible to meet the natural gas needs of the Southeast European region with existing investments and opportunities, and it has been observed that the amount of natural gas that can be supplied by the region's LNG facilities and existing pipelines is not sufficient on its own. In addition, the amount of gas that Greece, which aims to become the energy hub of the region, can provide with its LNG facilities and existing pipelines is not sufficient. For these reasons, it has been determined that while Russia continues to be a strong player in the natural gas market in the Southeast European region, the importance of Türkiye's energy hub potential is gradually increasing in the current conjuncture.

Keywords

Energy economics, energy markets, energy consumption, natural gas pipelines, estimation models

Project Number

121G180

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