Analysis of the Impact of Renewable Energy and Industrialization on the Environment within the Framework of the STIRPAT-Kaya-EKC Hypothesis: Evidence from the AARDL Model

Year 2024, Volume: 8 Issue: 1, 107 - 125, 27.06.2024

Serhat Çamkaya

https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.1359874

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the long and short-run effects of population, economic growth, renewable energy consumption and industrialisation on CO2 emissions in Turkey within the framework of the STIRPAT-Kaya-EKC hypothesis. For this purpose, annual data for the period 1977-2019 are analysed by means of an augmented lag distributed autoregressive (AARDL) model. The empirical findings indicate that in the long run, population growth contributes to environmental damage by raising CO2 emission levels, whereas renewable energy is effective in mitigating this damage in the long run. Furthermore, the empirical findings demonstrate that industrialization similarly leads to higher CO2 emissions, thereby exacerbating environmental pollution in both the long and short term. Finally, the study's results indicate that the long-run elasticity of economic growth is lower than the short-run elasticity, i.e. the EKC hypothesis is valid according to Narayan and Narayan (2010). These findings suggest that policymakers in Turkey should invest in renewable energy technologies to reduce fossil fuel dependence in the manufacturing industry and transportation sector. For instance, this could involve increasing investments in renewable energy technologies like solar and wind for the manufacturing industry sector. In addition, it should put into effect the necessary tax and incentive packages for the transport and transport sector, especially to increase the use of electrically powered vehicles. In doing so, green growth can be achieved to some extent and an important step can be taken to reduce environmental pollution.

Keywords

STIRPAT-Kaya-EKC, Renewable Energy, Industrialization, AARDL, Türkiye

Yenilenebilir Enerji ve Sanayileşmenin Çevre Üzerindeki Etkisinin STIRPAT-Kaya-EKC Hipotezi Çerçevesinde Analizi: AARDL Modelinden Kanıtlar

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de STIRPAT-Kaya-EKC hipotezi çerçevesinde CO2 emisyonu üzerinde, nüfusun, ekonomik büyümenin, yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminin ve sanayileşmenin uzun ve kısa dönemli etkisini incelemektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, 1977-2019 dönem aralığındaki yıllık veriler, genişletilmiş gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif (AARDL) model vasıtasıyla incelenmiştir. Ampirik bulgular, uzun dönemde nüfusun CO2 emisyon seviyelerini arttırarak çevresel tahribatı arttırdığını göstermekteyken, yenilenebilir enerjinin uzun dönemde bu tahribatın azaltılmasında etkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, ampirik bulgular hem uzun hem kısa dönemde sanayileşmenin benzer şekilde CO2 emisyonunu arttırdığını ve böylece çevresel kirliliği arttırdığını göstermektedir. Son olarak, çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular ekonomik büyümenin uzun dönem esnekliğinin kısa döneme göre daha az olduğunu, yani Narayan ve Narayan (2010) yaklaşımına göre EKC hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlardan hareketle, Türkiye’deki politika yapıcılar imalat sanayisi ve ulaşım sektöründeki fosil yakıt bağımlılığını azaltmak için yenilenebilir enerji teknolojilerine yatırım yapmalıdır. Bunun için örneğin, imalat sanayisi sektörüne dönük olarak güneş ve rüzgar gibi yenilenebilir enerji teknolojilere dönük yatırımları arttırmalıdır. Ayrıca, ulaşım ve taşımacılık sektörüne yönelik olarak özellikle elektrikle çalışan araçların kullanımının arttırılmasına dönük gerekli vergi ve teşvik paketlerini yürürlüğe koymalıdır. Böylece, hem yeşil büyümenin sağlanması bir nebze de olsa tesis edilebilir hem de çevresel kirliliğin azaltılması için önemli bir adım atılmış olur.

Keywords

STIRPAT-Kaya-EKC, Yenilenebilir Enerji, Sanayileşme, AARDL, Türkiye

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