Petrol Fiyatları, GSYİH ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki Nedensellik: Azerbaycan ve Kazakistan Örneği

Year 2017, Issue: 83 - Special Issue on Eurasian Political Economy, 79 - 98, 31.10.2017

Mehmet Dikkaya , Bayram Veli Doyar

Abstract

Bağımsızlıklarının ardından petrol endüstrisine büyük önem
atfeden Azerbaycan ve Kazakistan, bu endüstriye yabancı yatırımları da çekmeyi başarmıştır. Ekonomi için kilit rol üstlenen
bu endüstri, ekonomiyi özellikle petrol fiyatlarına karşı hassas
hale getirmiştir. Bu bağlamda, mevcut çalışmada hem Azerbaycan hem de Kazakistan için petrol fiyatı, GSYİH ve döviz kuru
değişkenlerine ait çeyreklik zaman serileri arasındaki nedensellik
ilişkileri ayrı ayrı incelenmektedir. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik
testi sonuçları, Azerbaycan için döviz kurundan petrol fiyatlarına, petrol fiyatlarından GSYİH’ya ve GSYİH’dan döviz kuruna
işleyen tek yönlü nedenselliklere işaret ederken nedenselliklerin
yönü Kazakistan için petrol fiyatlarından GSYİH’ya, döviz kurundan GSYİH’ya ve petrol fiyatlarından döviz kuruna şeklinde
ortaya çıkmıştır.

Keywords

Azerbaycan, Kazakistan, petrol fiyatları, GSYİH, döviz kuru, nedensellik

Causality Among Oil Prices, GDP and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan

Abstract

Following their independence, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan,
which place great importance to oil industry, have also succeeded in attracting foreign investments to this industry. Over
time, this industry, which has become a key to the economy, has
made the economy vulnerable particularly to oil prices. In this
regard, current paper investigates causal relationships between
quarterly time series of oil prices, GDP and exchange rate for
both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan separately. Toda-Yamamoto
causality test results for Azerbaijan suggest that there are unidirectional causalities from exchange rate to oil prices, from oil
prices to GDP and from GDP to exchange rate. As for Kazakhstan, causalities run from oil prices to GDP, exchange rate to
GDP and oil prices to exchange rate.

Keywords

Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Oil Prices, GDP, Exchange Rate, Causality

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