Ekonomik Dalgalanmaların Sigorta Şirketlerinin Pazar Payları ve Prim Üretimleri Üzerindeki Etkileri
Year 2020,
Volume: 9 Issue: 17, 95 - 101, 30.06.2020
Necla Tunay
,
Fuat Çamlıbel
,
Kaşif Batu Tunay
Abstract
Sigorta şirketlerinin prim üretimlerinin ekonomik döngülerden etkilendiği kabul edilmektedir. Bu nedenle çalışmada hayat ve hayat sigortası şirketlerinin prim üretimleri ile ekonomik dalgalanmalar arasındaki etkileşimler araştırılmıştır. Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan 30 ülkeden derlenen bir örneklem kullanılarak Demitrescu-Hurlin nedensellik testlerine dayalı analizler icra edilmiştir. Ulaşılan bulgular sigorta faaliyetlerinin ekonomik faaliyetlerdeki dalgalanmalardan güçlü şekilde etkilendiklerini göstermiştir. Ancak bu etkinin hayat dışı sigortalara oranla hayat sigortası alanında daha sınırlı olduğu saptanmıştır. Hayat dışı sigorta primleri gelir ve satın alma gücündeki değişmelere oldukça duyarlıdır ve ekonominin daralma dönemlerinde düşme eğilimindedir. Bunun sonucu olarak ekonomi daraldığında sigorta şirketlerinin pazar payları da gerilemektedir.
References
- Acharya, V. V., & Richardson, M. (2014). Is the insurance industry systemically risky. In: J. H. Biggs and M. P. Richardson (eds), Modernizing insurance regulation, 151-180, USA: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
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- Anderson, S. (2013). A history of the past 40 years in financial crises. International Financing Review, Londres, Inglaterra, 2000, 48-52.
- Baluch, F., Mutenga, S., & Parsons, C. (2011). Insurance, systemic risk and the financial crisis. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance-Issues and Practice, 36(1), 126-163.
- Bernoth, K., & Pick, A. (2011). Forecasting the fragility of the banking and insurance sectors. Journal of Banking & Finance, 35(4), 807-818.
- Bijlsma, M., & Vermeulen, R. (2016). Insurance companies’ trading behaviour during the European sovereign debt crisis: Flight home or flight to quality?. Journal of financial stability, 27, 137-154.
- Chakraborty, D. (2010). Global Financial Crises, India and Insurance and Pension Industry: Why and What Next. In: Institute of actuaries on India, 12th global conference of actuaries (pp. 18-19), 18-19 February 2010, Mumbai.
- Chen, M. C., Chang, C. C., Lin, S. K., & Shyu, S. D. (2010). Estimation of housing price jump risks and their impact on the valuation of mortgage insurance contracts. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 77(2), 399-422.
- Chen, R., & Wong, K. A. (2004). The determinants of financial health of Asian insurance companies. Journal of risk and insurance, 71(3), 469-499.
- Cummins, J. D., & Weiss, M. A. (2009). Convergence of insurance and financial markets: Hybrid and securitized risk‐transfer solutions. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 76(3), 493-545.
- Cummins, J. D., & Weiss, M. A. (2014). Systemic risk and the US insurance sector. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 81(3), 489-528.
- Dumitrescu, E. I., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460.
- Eling, M., & Schmeiser, H. (2010). Insurance and the credit crisis: Impact and ten consequences for risk management and supervision. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance-Issues and Practice, 35(1), 9-34.
- Eling, M., & Toplek, D. (2009). Modeling and management of nonlinear dependencies–copulas in dynamic financial analysis. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 76(3), 651-681.
- Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 37(3), 424-438.
- Harrington, S. E. (2009). The financial crisis, systemic risk, and the future of insurance regulation. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 76(4), 785-819.
- Hurlin, C. (2004). Testing Granger causality in heterogeneous panel data models with fixed coefficients (Mimeo). Orléans: University of Orléans.
- Hurlin, C. (2005). Un test simple de l'hypothèse de non-causalité dans un modèle de panel hétérogène. Revue économique, 56(3), 799-809.
- Hurlin, C., & Venet, B. (2001). Granger causality tests in panel data models with fixed coefficients. Cahier de Recherche EURISCO, September, Université Paris IX Dauphine.
- Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of econometrics, 115(1), 53-74.
- Klein, R. W., Ma, G., Ulm, E. R., Wang, S., Wei, X., & Zanjani, G. (2009). The financial crisis and lessons for insurers. report for the Society of Actuaries.
- Kočović, J., Rakonjac-Antić, T., & Jovović, M. (2011). The impact of the global financial crisis on the structure of investment portfolios of insurance companies. Economic Annals, 56(191), 143-161.
- Liedtke, P. M., & Schanz, K. U. (2010). The Global Financial Crisis and the Insurance Industry Frequently Asked Questions. SC9 Insurance and Finance Research on Finance Issues in Insurance, Genf, 11, 2010.
- Lin, E. S., & Ali, H. E. (2009). Military spending and inequality: Panel Granger causality test. Journal of Peace Research, 46(5), 671-685.
- Malafronte, I., Porzio, C., & Starita, M. G. (2013). Disclosure practices and financial crisis: Empirical evidences in the European insurance industry. The British Accounting Review, 38(4), 387-404.
- Milidonis, A., & Stathopoulos, K. (2011). Do US insurance firms offer the “wrong” incentives to their executives?. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 78(3), 643-672.
- Needleman, P., Rastogi, R., & Murray, C. (2012). Managing insurers through the Eurozone crisis: An unfolding story. Emphasis, No. 1, 2-7.
- Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of applied econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
- Schich, S. (2010). Insurance companies and the financial crisis. OECD Journal: Financial market trends, 2009(2), 123-151.
- Schich, S. (2010). The role of insurance in the recent financial crisis. Insurance Markets and Companies: Analyses and Actuarial Computations, 1(1), 45-53.
- Tower, I., & Impavido, G. (2009). How the financial crisis affects pensions and insurance and why the impacts matter (No. 9-151). International Monetary Fund.
- Wagner, W. (2010). Diversification at financial institutions and systemic crises. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 19(3), 373-386.
The Effects of Economic Fluctuations on Market Shares and Premium Products of Insurance Companies
Year 2020,
Volume: 9 Issue: 17, 95 - 101, 30.06.2020
Necla Tunay
,
Fuat Çamlıbel
,
Kaşif Batu Tunay
Abstract
It is accepted that premium production of insurance companies is affected by economic cycles. Therefore, in this study, the interactions between life and life insurance companies' premium productions and economic fluctuations were investigated. Demitrescu-Hurlin causality tests were conducted using a sample of developed and emerging economies. The findings show that insurance activities are strongly affected by the fluctuations in economic activities. However, this effect was found to be more limited in the field of life insurance than non-life insurance. Non-life insurance premiums are highly sensitive to changes in income and purchasing power and tend to decline during periods of contraction in the economy. As a result, the market share of insurance companies declines when the economy contracts.
References
- Acharya, V. V., & Richardson, M. (2014). Is the insurance industry systemically risky. In: J. H. Biggs and M. P. Richardson (eds), Modernizing insurance regulation, 151-180, USA: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
- Acharya, V. V., Biggs, J., Richardson, M., & Ryan, S. (2009). On the financial regulation of insurance companies. Stern School of Business, Working paper. (Accessed on 05.05.2019), http://web-docs.stern.nyu.edu/salomon/docs/whitepaper.pdf
- Anderson, S. (2013). A history of the past 40 years in financial crises. International Financing Review, Londres, Inglaterra, 2000, 48-52.
- Baluch, F., Mutenga, S., & Parsons, C. (2011). Insurance, systemic risk and the financial crisis. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance-Issues and Practice, 36(1), 126-163.
- Bernoth, K., & Pick, A. (2011). Forecasting the fragility of the banking and insurance sectors. Journal of Banking & Finance, 35(4), 807-818.
- Bijlsma, M., & Vermeulen, R. (2016). Insurance companies’ trading behaviour during the European sovereign debt crisis: Flight home or flight to quality?. Journal of financial stability, 27, 137-154.
- Chakraborty, D. (2010). Global Financial Crises, India and Insurance and Pension Industry: Why and What Next. In: Institute of actuaries on India, 12th global conference of actuaries (pp. 18-19), 18-19 February 2010, Mumbai.
- Chen, M. C., Chang, C. C., Lin, S. K., & Shyu, S. D. (2010). Estimation of housing price jump risks and their impact on the valuation of mortgage insurance contracts. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 77(2), 399-422.
- Chen, R., & Wong, K. A. (2004). The determinants of financial health of Asian insurance companies. Journal of risk and insurance, 71(3), 469-499.
- Cummins, J. D., & Weiss, M. A. (2009). Convergence of insurance and financial markets: Hybrid and securitized risk‐transfer solutions. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 76(3), 493-545.
- Cummins, J. D., & Weiss, M. A. (2014). Systemic risk and the US insurance sector. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 81(3), 489-528.
- Dumitrescu, E. I., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460.
- Eling, M., & Schmeiser, H. (2010). Insurance and the credit crisis: Impact and ten consequences for risk management and supervision. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance-Issues and Practice, 35(1), 9-34.
- Eling, M., & Toplek, D. (2009). Modeling and management of nonlinear dependencies–copulas in dynamic financial analysis. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 76(3), 651-681.
- Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 37(3), 424-438.
- Harrington, S. E. (2009). The financial crisis, systemic risk, and the future of insurance regulation. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 76(4), 785-819.
- Hurlin, C. (2004). Testing Granger causality in heterogeneous panel data models with fixed coefficients (Mimeo). Orléans: University of Orléans.
- Hurlin, C. (2005). Un test simple de l'hypothèse de non-causalité dans un modèle de panel hétérogène. Revue économique, 56(3), 799-809.
- Hurlin, C., & Venet, B. (2001). Granger causality tests in panel data models with fixed coefficients. Cahier de Recherche EURISCO, September, Université Paris IX Dauphine.
- Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of econometrics, 115(1), 53-74.
- Klein, R. W., Ma, G., Ulm, E. R., Wang, S., Wei, X., & Zanjani, G. (2009). The financial crisis and lessons for insurers. report for the Society of Actuaries.
- Kočović, J., Rakonjac-Antić, T., & Jovović, M. (2011). The impact of the global financial crisis on the structure of investment portfolios of insurance companies. Economic Annals, 56(191), 143-161.
- Liedtke, P. M., & Schanz, K. U. (2010). The Global Financial Crisis and the Insurance Industry Frequently Asked Questions. SC9 Insurance and Finance Research on Finance Issues in Insurance, Genf, 11, 2010.
- Lin, E. S., & Ali, H. E. (2009). Military spending and inequality: Panel Granger causality test. Journal of Peace Research, 46(5), 671-685.
- Malafronte, I., Porzio, C., & Starita, M. G. (2013). Disclosure practices and financial crisis: Empirical evidences in the European insurance industry. The British Accounting Review, 38(4), 387-404.
- Milidonis, A., & Stathopoulos, K. (2011). Do US insurance firms offer the “wrong” incentives to their executives?. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 78(3), 643-672.
- Needleman, P., Rastogi, R., & Murray, C. (2012). Managing insurers through the Eurozone crisis: An unfolding story. Emphasis, No. 1, 2-7.
- Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of applied econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
- Schich, S. (2010). Insurance companies and the financial crisis. OECD Journal: Financial market trends, 2009(2), 123-151.
- Schich, S. (2010). The role of insurance in the recent financial crisis. Insurance Markets and Companies: Analyses and Actuarial Computations, 1(1), 45-53.
- Tower, I., & Impavido, G. (2009). How the financial crisis affects pensions and insurance and why the impacts matter (No. 9-151). International Monetary Fund.
- Wagner, W. (2010). Diversification at financial institutions and systemic crises. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 19(3), 373-386.