How Urban and Rural Population Growth are Related with Household Consumption?: The Case of Turkey

Year 2021, Volume: 10 Issue: 20, 35 - 43, 31.12.2021

Jülide Yalçınkaya Koyuncu , Yüksel Okşak

Abstract

In this study we try to identify the long-run relationship between per capita household consumption growth rate and rural and urban population growth rate in Turkey by means of ARDL estimation method with an annual dataset spanning from 1988 to 2019. Co-integration analysis results show that series of urban population growth rate, rural population growth rate, and per capita household consumption growth are co-integrated and they move together in the long-run in Turkey. Long-run coefficient estimations disclose that rural population growth rate has a statistically significant negative impact on household consumption growth and urban population growth rate has a statistically significant positive impact on household consumption growth rate. According to the long-run coefficient estimations, it can be asserted that a one percent increase in rural population growth rate causes to a drop by 4.006% in household consumption growth rate and that a one percent rise in urban population growth rate leads to an increase by 1.04% in household consumption growth rate in the long-run in Turkey.

Keywords

Household Consumption, Consumption Expentidure, Population Growth, ARDL Analysis.

References

• Batırel Ömer, F. (1986). Sağlık hizmetleri ve devlet politikası. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 3(3).
• Becker, G. (1960), An economic analysis of fertility. in: Demography and Economic Change in Developed Countries, Universities-NBER Research Conference Series 11, Princeton, 209-31.
• Bodkin, R. (1959). Windfall income and consumption. The American Economic Review, 49(4), 602-614
• Changsheng, L. W. X. (2008). The effects of natural population growth rate on real household consumption in China [J]. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 3. https://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTotal-ZKRK200803008.htm
• Çağlayan, E. ve Astar, M. (2012). A microeconometric analysis of household consumption expenditure determinants for both rural and urban areas in Turkey. American International Journal Of Contemporary Research, 2(2): 27-34.
• Çolak, Ö. F., Öztürkler, H. ve Tokatlıoğlu, İ. (2008). Türkiye’de tüketim fonksiyonunun dilim regresyon yöntemi ile tahmini. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 23(268), 62-93.
• De Brauw, A., Mueller, V., & Lee, H. L. (2014). The role of rural–urban migration in the structural transformation of Sub-Saharan Africa. World Development, 63, 33-42.
• Gebreegziabher, Z. (2007). Household fuel consumption and resource use in rural-urban Ethiopia.
• Hazell, P. B., & Haggblade, S. (1990). Rural-urban growth linkages in India. World Bank Publications.
• Henderson, J. V., & Wang, H. G. (2005). Aspects of the rural-urban transformation of countries. Journal of Economic Geography, 5(1), 23-42.
• Karluk, S. R. (1996). Türkiye ekonomisi tarihsel gelişim yapısal ve sosyal değişim, 4. Baskı, Beta Yay., İstanbul.
• Lebe, F., Yusuf, E., A. (2014). Türkiye’nin konut talebinin analizi: 1970-2011. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 28(1): 57-83.
• Liddle, B. (2017). Urbanization and inequality/poverty. Urban Science, 1(4), 35.
• Luo, X., Wang, Y., & Zhang, X. (2019). E-Commerce development and household consumption growth in China. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, (8810).
• Modigliani, F. (1986). Life cycle. Individual Thrift and Wealth of Nations American Economic Review, 76(3):297-313.
• Niu, S., Li, Z., Qiu, X., Dai, R., Wang, X., Qiang, W., & Hong, Z. (2019). Measurement of effective energy consumption in China's rural household sector and policy implication. Energy policy, 128, 553-564.
• Özen, E. (2020). Does urbanization play role on poverty?: Empirical evidence. Interdisciplinary Public Finance, Business and Economics Studies, III, 101. Peterlang.
• Özer, H. (2013). Erzurum’da hanehalklarının tüketim kalıplarının yapısı ve gelir hipotezlerinin analizi. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 16(1). Özgür, M. E. (2003). XXI. Yüzyılın başında Türkiye nüfusu. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 1(1), 43 -53.
• Özgüven, A. (1988). İktisadi büyüme, iktisadi kalkınma. Sosyal kalkınma planlama ve Japon kalkınması, İstanbul: Filiz.
• Padoch, C., Brondizio, E., Costa, S., Pinedo-Vasquez, M., Sears, R. R., & Siqueira, A. (2008). Urban forest and rural cities: multi-sited households, consumption patterns, and forest resources in Amazonia. Ecology and Society, 13(2).
• Roy, S. (2011). Trends and patterns in consumption expenditure: a review of class and rural-urban disparities.
• Satterthwaite, D. (2009). The implications of population growth and urbanization for climate change. Environment and urbanization, 21(2), 545-567.
• Stahl, K. (1989). Housing patterns and mobility of the aged: The united states and West Germany. In The Economics of Aging (pp. 93-118). University of Chicago Press.
• Sugözü, İ. H., (2017). Türkiye'de tarımsal destekleme politikaları ve iç göç ilişkisi. 1. Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Kongresi USOS 2017, (s. 173). Malaga/Spain.
• Tao Yang, D., & Zhou, H. (1999). Rural‐urban disparity and sectoral labour allocation in China. The Journal of Development Studies, 35(3), 105-133.
• Tekirdağ, A. (2009). Türkiye’de bireysel kredi artışı ve risk analizi. T.C. Merkez Bankası Bankacılık ve Finansal Kuruluşlar Genel Müdürlüğü, Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, Ankara.
• Toros, A., Ulusoy, M., Ergöçmen, B. (1997). Ulusal çevre eylem planı: Nüfus ve çevre, Ankara: DPT Yayınları.
• Uysal, D., Yiğit, M. (2016).Türkiye’de konut talebinin belirleyicileri (1970-2015): Ampirik Bir çalışma. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksekokulu Dergisi, 19(1),185-189.
• Wang, S., Sun, S., Zhao, E., & Wang, S. (2021). Urban and rural differences and regional assessment of household energy consumption in China. Energy, 121091.
• Yumuşak, İ. G., & Kar, A. (2000). Nüfus artış hızının düşürülmesi iktisadi kalkınmayı artırır mı. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 1, 97-104.