Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Turkey: March 16–28, 2020

Year 2020, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 27 - 30, 01.04.2020

Hasan Onder

Abstract

The trend of COVID-19 and its reproductive number should be well examined because the transmission potential of novel coronavirus can reach high values. In this study the early stage of COVID-19 in Turkey between March 16 and March 28, 2020 was examined. Generalized Logistic growth model, Richards Model, and sub-exponential growth models were compared to estimate the trend of disease. Results showed that the reproductive number was between 2.00 and 2.45 at interested period. The best fitting model has been determines as sub-exponential growth model with scaling of growth parameter of 0.91.

Keywords

COVID-19, Reproductive number, Growth curve, Turkey

References

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