Türkiye'de Deprem Tekrarlanma Zamanının Tahmini ve Neotektonik Bölgelere Göre Depremselliğin Markov Zinciri ile İncelenmesi

Year 2012, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, - , 01.04.2012

Gamze Ozel , Aysun Solmaz

Abstract

The Markov chain is a probabilistic model used with stochastic processes in
many branches of science such as seismology, biology, meteorology and hydrology. This
model is utilized to evaluate modeling of an event and allows the use of combinatorial
probability estimates including initial and transitional probabilities. These probabilities
contain useful information that can be used in earthquake modelling. In this paper, the
Markov chain approach is applied to 108 years of earthquake data recorded at Kandilli
Observatory since a signicant portion of Turkey is subject to frequent earthquakes. 

Keywords

Earthquake modeling, seismic hazard, Markov chain, inital probability, transitional probability

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