The Relationship between Savings and Inflation: An Analysis of Co-Integration for Turkey

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 18 Sayı: 3, 353 - 369, 25.09.2020

Yüksel Okşak , Eda Özen

https://doi.org/10.18026/cbayarsos.730305

Cited By: 2

Öz

Empirical studies on the effect of savings and inflation on the country's economies, the direction and causality of this effect are increasing day by day. In this study, the relationship between savings and inflation is discussed in the case of Turkey. The stability of the two series studied was investigated by analysis. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that both series are stationary in their first differences. In the later analysis, short and long term relationships were discussed. According to the results obtained, there is a statistically significant relationship between savings and inflation both in the short run and the long run. While the increase in inflation increases the savings in the short term, an increase in inflation decreases the savings in the long term. To determine the causality relationship between the series, the Granger causality test was applied with Toda Yamamoto approach. As a result, it has been determined that there is a one-way causality relationship with 10% significance level from saving to inflation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Inflation

Tasarruf ve Enflasyon İlişkisi Türkiye İçin Bir Eş-Bütünleşme Analizi

Öz

Tasarruf ve enflasyonun ülke ekonomilerine etkisi, bu etkinin yönü ve nedenselliğine dair yapılan ampirik çalışmalar her geçen gün artmaktadır. Bu çalışmada tasarruf ve enflasyon arasındaki ilişki Türkiye Örneği üzerinde ele alınmıştır. Ele alınan iki seri için durağanlıkları analizler ile incelenmiştir. Yapılan analizler sonucunda serilerin her ikisinin de birinci farklarında durağan oldukları tespit edilmiştir. Daha sonra yapılan analizlerde ise kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkiler ele alınmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre tasarruf ile enflasyon arasında hem kısa dönemde hem de uzun dönemde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki vardır. Kısa dönemde enflasyondaki artış tasarrufu arttırıyor iken uzun dönemde enflasyonda meydana gelecek bir artış tasarrufu azaltmaktadır. Seriler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini belirlemek amacıyla Toda Yamamoto yaklaşımı ile Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Sonuçta iki seri arasında %10 anlamlılık düzeyinde tasarruftan enflasyona doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tasarruf, Enflasyon, Eş-Bütünleşme

Kaynakça

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