The Relationship of Naturalgas Consumption, Capital and Employment with Economic Growth in Turkey: Cointegration and Causality Analysis

Year 2017, Volume: 32 Issue: 1, 1 - 28, 13.07.2017

Halim Tatlı , Fuat Lebe

https://doi.org/10.24988/deuiibf.2017321536

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship of natural gas consumption, employment and fixed capital formation with economic growth in Turkey. For this purpose, Turkey’s annual data of the period between 1987 and 2014 were analyzed with ARDL bounds testing and Granger causality tests based on the VECM. According to the result of cointegration test, the series were determined as cointegrated. The result of ARDL bounds test showed that natural gas consumption, employment and fixed capital formation in Turkey had a positive impact on economic growth and those effects were determined as significant. However, it was determined that fixed capital formation was the most important factor affecting economic growth in Turkey. Rsults of causality test, validate the hypothesis of feed-back beetwen natural gas consumption and economic growth, fixed capital formation and economic growth in the long-term.

Keywords

Economic Growth, Natural Gas Consumption, Employment, Fixed Capital Formation, ARDL Bounds Test, Causality

Türkiye’de Doğalgaz Tüketimi, Sermaye ve İstihdamın Ekonomik Büyümeyle İlişkisi: Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de doğalgaz tüketimi, istihdam ve sabit sermaye oluşumlarının ekonomik büyümeyle olan ilişkisini incelmektir. Bu amaçla, Türkiye’nin 1987-2014 dönemine ait yıllık verileri ARDL testi ve VECM dayalı Granger nedensellik testiyle analiz edilmiştir. Eşbütünleşme testi sonucu, serilerin eşbütünleşik olduğu belirlenmiştir. ARDL testi sonucu, Türkiye ekonomisinde doğal gaz tüketimi, istihdam ve sabit sermaye oluşumu ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif yönde etkilediği ve bu etkilerin anlamlı olduğu saptanmıştır. Ayrıca, Türkiye’de ekonomik büyümeyi en fazla etkileyen faktörün sabit sermeye oluşumu olduğu belirlenmiştir. Nedensellik testi sonucu, uzun dönemde doğal gaz tüketimiyle ekonomik büyüme, sabit sermaye oluşumuyla ekonomik büyüme arasında feed-back hipotezini doğrulayan bulgular elde edilmiştir.

Keywords

Ekonomik Büyüme, Doğal Gaz Tüketimi, İstihdam, Sabit Sermaye oluşumu, ARDL Sınır Testi, Nedensellik

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