COVID-19 Pandemi Döneminde Enflasyonun Belirleyicileri: Avrupa Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Mekansal Panel Veri Analizi

Year 2020, Volume: 22 Issue: Special Issue, 61 - 67, 30.11.2020

Seyfettin Erdoğan , Durmuş Çağrı Yıldırım , Ayfer Gedikli

https://doi.org/10.18678/dtfd.794107

Cited By: 13

Abstract

Amaç: Küresel ekonomide son dönemde yaşanmakta olan makroekonomik sorunlar, koronavirüs hastalığı 2019 (coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19) pandemisi ile yakından ilgilidir. Hastalığın en yüksek yayılımı ağırlıklı olarak Avrupa ülkelerinde görüldüğünden, Avrupa Birliği (AB) üyesi ve birliğe aday ülkelerdeki makroekonomik göstergeleri araştırmak anlamlı olacaktır. Enflasyon, birçok makroekonomik değişkeni doğrudan etkileyebileceği için incelenmesi gereken en önemli göstergelerden biridir. Bu çalışmada 28 AB üyesi ve birliğe aday ülkede enflasyonun belirleyicileri araştırılmıştır.
Gereç ve Yöntemler: Bu çalışmada, Ocak 2020-Temmuz 2020 dönemi ele alınarak 28 AB üyesi ve birliğe aday ülkede enflasyonun belirleyicileri mekansal panel veri analizi kullanılarak araştırılmıştır.
Bulgular: Ampirik sonuçlar, döviz kuru ve para arzındaki değişimlerin enflasyondaki artışın en belirgin nedenleri olduğunu göstermiştir. Yurt içi para arzı ve döviz kuru değişkenlerinin yanı sıra ülkeler arası komşuluk ilişkileri nedeniyle de enflasyon oranları üzerinde artan bir baskı olduğu gözlenmiştir (pozitif mekansal etkiler).
Sonuç: Her örnek ülkenin yereldeki makroekonomik sorunlarının, iç dinamikler yanında komşu ülkelerdeki gelişmelerden de etkilendiği önemli bir bulgudur. Pandemi sürecinde, bölgesel düzeyde komşu ülkeler arasında ekonomik, sosyal ve politik işbirliğinin geliştirilmesi elzemdir. Pandemi döneminde, her ülkenin tarım, gıda, teknoloji ve ilaç endüstrileri alanlarında kendi kendine yeten stratejiler geliştirmesi akılcı bir strateji olacaktır. Bölgesel işbirliği, pandemi döneminde öne çıkan sektörlerin gelişimi ile sınırlı kalmamalı, geniş katılımlı işbirlikleri her alanda ele alınmalıdır.

Keywords

COVID-19, enflasyon, AB ülkeleri, mekansal panel veri analizi

Dynamics and Determinants of Inflation During the COVID-19 Pandemic Period in European Countries: A Spatial Panel Data Analysis

Abstract

Aim: The recent macroeconomic problems in the global economy are highly related to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Since the highest spread of the disease is observed in the European countries, it is worthwhile to investigate the macroeconomic indicators in the European Union (EU) member and the candidate countries. Inflation is one of the most important indicators to examine since it may directly affect many macroeconomic variables. In this study, the determinants of inflation in the 28 EU members and candidate states are investigated.
Material and Methods: In this study, the determinants of inflation in the 28 EU members and candidate states are investigated for January 2020-July 2020 using spatial panel data analysis.
Results: The empirical results indicated that the exchange rate and money supply ratios were reasons of the increase in inflation. There is also increasing pressure on the inflation rates due to the domestic money supply and exchange rate variables as well as the neighborhood relations between countries (positive spatial effects).
Conclusion: It is an important finding that macroeconomic problems in each sample country are also affected by developments in neighboring countries as well as internal dynamics. Continuous development of economic, social, and political cooperation between neighboring countries at the regional level is essential. It is reasonable for every country to develop self-sufficient strategies in the fields of agriculture, food, technology, and pharmaceutical industries in case of global disasters. Regional cooperation should not be limited to the development of sectors that stand out during the pandemic period.

Keywords

COVID-19, inflation, EU countries, spatial panel data analysis

References

• Altig D, Baker S, Barrero JM, Bloom N, Bunn P, Chen S, et al. Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Public Economics. 2020;191:104274.
• nytimes.com [Internet]. The New York Times. Fed chair warns this is a ‘downturn without modern precedent’. [Cited: 2020 September 12]. Available from: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/business/ economy/fed-chair-warns-this-is-a-downturn-without-modern-precedent.html
• Apergis E, Apergis N. Inflation expectations, volatility and COVID-19: Evidence from the US inflation swap rates. Applied Economics Letters. 2020;[Epub ahead of print]. doi: 10.1080/13504851.2020.1813245.
• Ilzetzki E, Reinhart CM, Rogoff KS. Will secular decline in exchange rate and inflation volatility survive COVID-19? Brooking Papers on Economic Activity. BPEA Conference Drafts. [Cited: 2020 September 12]. Available from: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content /uploads/2020/09/Ilzetzki-et-al-conference-draft.pdf.
• imf.org [Internet]. International Monetary Fund. The great lockdown: Worst economic downturn since the great depression. [Cited: 2020 September 12]. Available from: https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/the-great-lockdown-worst-economic-downturn-since-the-great-depression/.
• Eichenbaum MS, Rebelo S, Trabandt M. The macroeconomics of epidemics. NBER Working Papers. 2020;26882. doi: 10.3386/w26882.
• Andersen AL, Hansen ET, Johannesen N, Sheridan, A. Responses to the COVID-19 crises: Evidence from bank account transaction data. CEBI Working Paper Series. 2020;18/20. Available from: https://www.econ.ku.dk/cebi/publikationer/working-papers/CEBI_WP_18-20_rev.pdf.
• Baker SR, Farrokhnia RA, Meyer S, Pagel M, Yannelis C. How does household spending respond to an epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic. NBER Working Papers. 2020;26949. doi: 10.3386/w26949.
• Dunn AC, Hood KK, Driessen A. Measuring the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer spending using card transaction data. BEA Working Paper Series. 2020;5. Available from: https://www. bea.gov/system/files/papers/BEA-WP2020-5_0.pdf.
• Coibion O, Gorodnichenko Y, Weber M. The cost of the COVID-19 crisis: lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending. NBER Working Papers. 2020;27141. doi: 10.3386/w27141.
• Sharif A, Aloui A, Yarovaya L. COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices, stock market, geopolitical risk, and policy uncertainty nexus in the US economy: Fresh evidence from the wavelet-based approach. International Review of Financial Analysis. 2020;70:101496.
• Pellegrino G, Ravenna F, Züllig G. The cost of coronavirus uncertainty: The high returns to clear policy plans. The Australian Economic Review. 2020;53(3):397-401.
• Cavallo A. Inflation with COVID-19 consumption baskets. NBER Working Paper Series. 2020;27352. doi: 10.3386/w27352.
• bankofengland.co.uk [Internet]. Bank of England. Tenreyro S. Monetary policy during pandemics: inflation before, during, and after COVID-19. [Cited: 2020 September 12]. Available from: https://www. bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2020/silvana-tenreyro-speech-monetary-policy-during-pandemics.
• Jaravel X, O'Connell M. Inflation spike and falling product variety during the Great Lockdown. Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) Working Papers. 2020;W20/17. doi: 10.1920/wp.ifs.2020.1720.
• Seiler P. Weighting bias and inflation in the time of COVID-19: Evidence from Swiss transaction data. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics. 2020;156:13.
• bankofcanada.ca [Internet]. Bank of Canada. Lane T. Policies for the Great Global Shutdown and beyond. [Cited: 2020 September 12]. Available from: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/05/policies-great-global-shutdown-and-beyond/.
• Blundell R, Griffith R, Levell P, O’Connell M. Could COVID-19 infect the consumer price index? Fiscal Studies. 2020;41(2):357-61.
• Bresser-Pereira LC. Financing COVID-19, inflation and fiscal constraint. Forum for Social Economics. 2020;49(3):241-56.
• Ebrahimy E, Igan D, Peria M. The impact of Covid-19 on inflation: Potential drivers and dynamics. IMF Special Notes Series on Covid-19. September 10, 2020:1-14.
• Armantire O, Kosar G, Pomerantz R, Skandalis D, Smith K, Topa G, et al. Inflation expectations in times of COVID-19. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics. [Cited: 2020 September 12]. Available from: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/20 20/05/inflation-expectations-in-times-of-covid-19.html.