The Global Economic Hibernation: Macroeconomic Indicators and Health Management Policies

Year 2021, Volume: 23 Issue: Special Issue, 48 - 60, 30.03.2021

Nigar Demircan Çakar , Ayfer Gedikli , Seyfettin Erdoğan

https://doi.org/10.18678/dtfd.902124

Cited By: 3

Abstract

Considering its dire effects on different sectors, the coronavirus is far more than a health problem. The pandemic has hit the global economy starting with the developed world and now spreading into emerging economies. It is a fact that developing countries are more disadvantageous in this process since not only their health conditions and health services are not so sophisticated as their developed counterparts, but also macroeconomic conditions are not strong enough to endure such a long-lasting socio-economic crisis. Those countries are poorer and it is hard for them to allocate sources to the health sector. Comparing with emerging economies, the developed world also has been suffering from the severe effects of the pandemic. Because of long-lasting lock-down and contractions in the global economy, all developed economies revealed negative economic growth rates for the proceeding years. The purpose of this article is not only to compare the macroeconomic effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on developed and developing countries but also to assist economy authorities, health care leaders, and their organizations in anticipating and preempting problems by providing alternative health management policies rather than reacting. Macroeconomic variables data that are released by the World Bank and IMF will be applied to make the comparisons.

Keywords

COVID-19, developed countries, developing countries, macroeconomic performance, health management

Küresel Kış Uykusu: Makroekonomik Göstergeler ve Sağlık Yönetimi Politikaları

Abstract

Koronavirüs pandemisinin farklı sektörler üzerinde yarattığı korkunç etkiler göz önüne alındığında, salgının küresel bir sağlık sorunu olmanın çok ötesinde girift ve çok katmanlı sorunlar doğurduğunu ifade etmek yanlış olmayacaktır. Öncelikle gelişmiş ülkelerde başlayan pandemi, alınan tüm küresel tedbirlere rağmen hızla gelişmekte olan ülkelerde de yayılmaya başlamıştır. Olumsuz etkileri uzun yıllara yayılacağı belli olan bu salgınla mücadele konusunda gelişmekte olan ülkeler gerek sağlık hizmetleri arzı ve sağlık altyapısındaki yetersizlikler, gerekse yerel ekonomilerin makroekonomik koşullarındaki kırılganlıklar nedeniyle gelişmiş ülkelere göre oldukça dezavantajlı durumdadırlar. Bu ülkeler, kaynak yetersizliği nedeniyle, sağlık harcamalarındaki artışı karşılayacak ekstra fonlara da sahip değildir. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerdeki bu ağır durum yanında, gelişmiş ülkeler de pandemi sürecinde darbe almış ve peş peşe açıklanan negatif büyüme oranları ile vahim tablo daha da netleşmiştir. Pandeminin etkilerinin uzun yıllara yayılması beklendiğinden, negatif büyüme oranlarının daha birkaç yıl devam edeceği tahmin edilmektedir. Bu çerçevede bu çalışmada koronavirüs hastalığı 2019 (coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19) pandemisinin makoekonomik etkileri gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler ayrımı ile analiz edilecek ve sağlık kurumları yöneticilerinin istifadesine sunmak üzere sağlık yönetimi politika önerileri getirilecektir. Ayrıca, derinlemesine bir litaratür incelemesi yanında, Dünya Bankası ve IMF gibi küresel kuruluşlar tarafından açıklanan verilerin mukayeseli olarak ele alınacağı çalışmada, pandeminin yerel ekonomiler üzerindeki olumsuz etkilerinin en aza indirilebilmesi doğrultusunda mevcut durum ve alternatif politika önerileri de sunulacaktır.

Keywords

COVID-19, gelişmiş ülkeler, gelişmekte olan ülkeler, makroekonomik performans, sağlık yönetimi

References

• Baldwin R, di Mauro BW. Introduction. In: Baldwin R, di Mauro BW, editors. Mitigating the COVID economic crisis: Act fast and do whatever it takes. London, UK: CEPR Press; 2020. p.1-10.
• Hellowell M, Myburgh A, Sjoblom M, Gurazada S, Clarke D. COVID-19 and the collapse of the private health sector: A threat to countries’ response efforts and the future of health systems strengthening? Geneva: WHO; 2020.
• Verwey M. Foreword. In: European Commission. European economic forecast, spring 2020. European Economy Institutional Papers 125. Brussels: European Commissions; 2020.
• Lagarde C. Live webinar speech on youth dialogue for the European Youth Event 2020, 27 May 2020. Available from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Otuc4lSqjAI
• imf.org [Internet]. International Monetary Fund. A crisis like no other. Annual report 2020, a year like no other. September 15, 2020. Available from: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ar/2020/eng/spotlight/covid-19/
• odi.org [Internet]. Samman E. Towards universal health systems in the COVID-19 era, opportunities and threats. Overseas Development Institute, May 19, 2020. Available from: https://odi.org/en/publications/ towards-universal-health-systems-in-the-covid-19-era-opportunities-and-threats/
• cgdev.org [Internet]. Evans D, Over M. The economic impact of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries. Centre for Global Development, March 12 2020. Available from: https://www.cgdev.org/blog/ economic-impact-covid-19-low-and-middle-income-countries
• O’Hanlon B, Hellowell M. Enabling the private health sector in the national response to COVID-19: Six current policy challenges. Geneva: WHO; 2020.
• cgdev.org [Internet]. Sembene D. Is Africa wasting the pandemic-induced economic crisis? Center for Global Development, January 27, 2021. Available from: https://www.cgdev.org/blog/africa-wasting-pandemic-induced-economic-crisis
• hbr.org [Internet]. Bohmer RMJ, Pisano GP, Sadun R, Tsai TC. How hospitals can manage supply shortages as demand surges. Harvard Business Review, April 3, 2020. Available from: https://hbr.org/2020/04/how-hospitals-can-manage-supply-shortages-as-demand-surges
• cgdev.org [Internet]. Gupta S, Jalles JT. Tax reforms in developing countries in an era of COVID-19. Center for Global Development, March 2, 2021. Available from: https://www.cgdev.org/blog/tax-reforms-developing-countries-era-covid-19
• squirepattonboggs.com [Internet]. Tully I, Sabelli D, Vismara F. COVID-19 Impact on the Italian healthcare sector. Squire Patton Boggs, April 17, 2020. Available from: https://www.squirepattonboggs.com/en/insights/ publications/2020/04/covid-19-impact-on-the-italian-healthcare-sector
• cgdev.org [Internet]. Glassman A. Protecting and transforming social spending through the COVID-19 crisis. Center for Global Development, February 25, 2021. Available from: https://www.cgdev.org/event/ protecting-and-transforming-social-spending-through-covid-19-crisis
• marketplace.org [Internet]. Adams K. Will the pandemic mean higher health care costs in the future? Marketplace, March 31, 2020. Available from: https://www.marketplace.org/2020/03/31/will-the-pandemic-mean-higher-health-care-costs-in-the-future/
• Cavallo A. Inflation with COVID consumption baskets. NBER Working Papers. 2020:27352. doi: 10.3386/w27352
• Gopinath, G. Limiting the economic fallout of the coronavirus with large targeted policies. In: Baldwin R, di Mauro BW, editors. Mitigating the COVID economic crisis: Act fast and do whatever it takes. London, UK: CEPR Press; 2020. p.41-8.
• United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. The COVID-19 shock to developing countries: Towards a “whatever it takes” programme for the two-thirds of the world’s population being left behind. Trade and Development Report Update, UNCTAD/GDS/INF/2020/2, Geneva: UNCTAD; 2020.
• Wyplosz C. The Euro area after COVID-19. Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies. Monetary Dialogue Papers, November 2020. Luxembourg: European Parliament; 2020.
• ifc.org [Internet]. International Finance Corporation. COVID-19 economic impact: Europe and Central Asia. International Finance Corporation, May 2020. Available from: https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/ publications_ext_content/ifc_external_publication_site/publications_listing_page/covid-19-response-brief-eca
• ifc.org [Internet]. International Finance Corporation. COVID-19 economic impact: Middle East and North Africa. International Finance Corporation, May 2020. Available from: https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/ publications_ext_content/ifc_external_publication_site/publications_listing_page/covid-19-response-brief-mena
• European Commission. European economic forecast, spring 2020. European Economy Institutional Papers 125. Brussels: European Commissions; 2020.
• cgdev.org [Internet]. Plant M, Andrews D. Enabling substantial IMF lending to low-income countries for the recovery. Center for Global Development, February 9, 2021. Available from: https://www.cgdev.org/blog/enabling-substantial-imf-lending-low-income-countries-recovery
• cgdev.org [Internet]. Sembene D. How an allocation of IMF SDRs to Africa could be supported by a multilateral reallocation initiative. Center for Global Development, February 23, 2021. Available from: https://www.cgdev.org/blog/how-allocation-imf-sdrs-africa-could-be-supported-multilateral-reallocation-initiative
• ilo.org [Internet]. International Labour Organization. ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work. 2nd edition. Updated estimates and analysis, April 7, 2020. Available from: https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/WCMS_740877/lang--ja/index.htm
• Gehrke B, Hochmuth B. Counteracting unemployment in crises: Non-linear effects of short-time work policy. Scand J Econ. 2021;123(1):144-83
• Pierri N, Timmer Y. IT shields: Technology adoption and economic resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic. IMF Working Papers. 2020:20/208. Available from: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/ WP/Issues/2020/09/25/IT-Shields-Technology-Adoption-and-Economic-Resilience-during-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-49754
• princeton.edu [Internet]. Brunnermeier M, Merkel S, Payne J, Sannikov Y. COVID-19: Inflation and deflation pressures. September 15, 2020. Available from: https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/ merkel/files/covid19inflationdisinflation.pdf
• Reserve Bank of Australia. Chapter 5, Inflation. In: Statement on Monetary Policy, May 2020. Australia: RBA; 2020. p.77-84.
• insightinvestment.com [Internet]. Insight Investment. COVID-19 is likely to end the inflation lockdown, May 2020. Available from: https://www.insightinvestment. com/globalassets/documents/recent-thinking/covid-19-is-likely-to-end-the-inflation-lockdown.pdf
• Erdoğan S, Yıldırım DÇ, Gedikli A. Dynamics and determinants of inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic period in European countries: A spatial panel data analysis. Duzce Med J. 2020;22(S1):61-7.
• Schiffbauer MT, World Bank. The economic and social impact of COVID-19. Western Balkans Regular Economic Report, No. 17, Spring 2020. doi: 10.1596/33670
• worldbank.org [Internet]. The World Bank. Debt Burden of Least Developed Countries continues to climb to a record $744 billion in 2019. Press Release No. 2021/037/DEC, October 12, 2020. Available from: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/ 2020/10/12/debt-burden-of-least-developed-countries-continues-to-climb-to-a-record-744-billion-in-2019
• Nicola M, Alsafi Z, Sohrabi C, Kerwan A, Al-Jabir A, Iosifidis C, et al. The socio-economic implications of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19): A review. Int J Surg. 2020;78:185-93.
• Erdoğan S, Çevik Eİ, Gedikli A. The effect of the oil prices volatility on economic growth and inflation: the case of GCC countries. Kafkas Üniversity Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty, KAUJEASF. 2020;11(21):306-30.
• oecd.org [Internet]. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) and the global oil price shock on the fiscal position of oil-exporting developing countries. OECD Policy Responses to Coronavirus (COVID-19), September 30, 2020. Available from: https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/the-impact-of-coronavirus-covid-19-and-the-global-oil-price-shock-on-the-fiscal-position-of-oil-exporting-developing-countries-8bafbd95/
• The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). International travel plunges 70% in the first eight months of 2020. World Tourism Barometer. 2020;18(6):1-36.
• deloitte.com [Internet]. Deloitte. COVID-19: Accelerating the evolution of the health sector. How to respond, recover, and thrive--then do it again. Available from: https://www2.deloitte.com/ca/en/ pages/public-sector/articles/accelerating-evolution-of-health-sector.html
• fticonsulting.com [Internet]. FTI Consulting. Impact of the coronavirus pandemic on healthcare construction projects. Forensic & Litigation Consulting | Construction, May 21, 2020. Available from: https://www.fticonsulting.com/insights/articles/impact-coronavirus-pandemic-healthcare-construction-projects
• Leite H, Lindsay C, Kumar M. COVID-19 outbreak: implications on healthcare operations. The TQM Journal. 2021;33(1):247-56.
• Gourinchas PO. Flattening the pandemic and recession curves. In: Baldwin R, di Mauro BW, editors. Mitigating the COVID economic crisis: Act fast and do whatever it takes. London, UK: CEPR Press; 2020. p.31-40.
• Huang Y, Lin C, Wang P, Xu Z. Saving Chia from the coronavirus and economic meltdown: Experiences and lessons. In: Baldwin R, di Mauro BW, editors. Mitigating the COVID economic crisis: Act fast and do whatever it takes. London, UK: CEPR Press; 2020. p.77-92.
• imf.org [Internet]. International Monetary Fund. Joint Statement World Bank Group and IMF call to action on debt of IDA countries. March 25, 2020. Available from: https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/03/ 25/pr20103-joint-statement-world-bank-group-and-imf-call-to-action-on-debt-of-ida-countries
• Quah D. Singapore’s policy response to COVID-19. In: Baldwin R, di Mauro BW, editors. Mitigating the COVID economic crisis: Act fast and do whatever it takes. London, UK: CEPR Press; 2020. p.103-12.
• ifc.org [Internet]. International Finance Corporation. Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on private equity funds in emerging markets. International Finance Corporation, 2020. Available from: https://www.ifc. org/wps/wcm/connect/publications_ext_content/ifc_external_publication_site/publications_listing_page/covid-19-impact-funds-emerging-markets