TÜRKİYE’DE FARKLI BOYUTLARIYLA İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİNİN GELENEKSEL VE FOURIER TESTLERLE ANALİZİ

Year 2024, Volume: 14 Issue: 27, 453 - 473, 31.05.2024

Ali Rauf Karataş

https://doi.org/10.53092/duiibfd.1406080

Abstract

Büyük Buhran sonrası küresel ölçekte tecrübe edilen yüksek işsizlik oranları, işsizlik olgusunu makroekonominin önemli sorunlarından biri haline getirmiştir. 1970’li yıllardaki petrol şokları sonrasında ise ekonomideki geçici şokların işsizlik oranları üzerinde kalıcı etkilere sebep olabileceği fikri, işsizlik histerisi hipotezini doğurmuş ve söz konusu hipotez klasik makro iktisadi öngörüye bir alternatif olarak ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu çalışma, 2014:1-2023:8 dönemi aylık verilerini kullanarak, Türkiye’de işsizlik histerisi hipotezini; işsizlik oranı, zamana bağlı eksik istihdam ve işsizlerin bütünleşik oranı, işsiz ve potansiyel işgücünün bütünleşik oranı ve atıl işgücü oranı olmak üzere dört farklı boyutuyla Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Fourier Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller (FADF) ve Kesirli Frekanslı FADF birim kök testleri ile sınamıştır. Geleneksel ve yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan birim kök testleri sonuçlarına göre işsizlik histerisi hipotezini destekleyen güçlü kanıtlara ulaşılmıştır. Buna göre Türkiye’de işsizlik oranlarındaki sapmalar kalıcı hale gelmekte ve bu sebeple işsizlik, ülke ekonomisi için halen önemli bir yapısal sorun olarak gözükmektedir.

Keywords

İşsizlik, İşsizlik Histerisi, Birim Kök Testleri, Yapısal Kırılmalar

ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT DIMENSIONS OF UNEMPLOYMENT HYSTERIA IN TÜRKİYE WITH TRADITIONAL AND FOURIER TESTS

Abstract

The high unemployment rates experienced globally after the Great Depression made unemployment one of the most important problems of macroeconomics. After the oil shocks in the 1970s, the idea that temporary shocks in the economy may have permanent effects on unemployment rates gave rise to the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis, which emerged as an alternative to the classical macroeconomic prediction. Using monthly data for the period 2014:M1-2023:M8, this study tests the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis in Türkiye with Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), Fourier Augmented Dickey–Fuller (FADF) and Fractional Frequency FADF unit root tests with four different dimensions: Unemployment rate, combined rate of time-related underemployment and unemployment, combined rate of unemployment and potential labour force and composite measure of labour underutilization. According to the results of traditional and structural break unit root tests, robust evidence is found to support the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis. Accordingly, deviations in unemployment rates in Türkiye are becoming persistent and therefore, unemployment is still an important structural problem for the Turkish economy.

Keywords

Unemployment, Unemployment Hysteresis, Unit Root Tests, Structural Breaks

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