Kuraklık Riskinin Bulanık Mantık Yardımıyla Türkiye Genelinde Değerlendirilmesi

Year 2019, Volume: 10 Issue: 1, 359 - 372, 15.03.2019

İsmail Dabanlı

https://doi.org/10.24012/dumf.499660

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu
çalışmada meteorolojik ve sosyo-ekonomik veriler kullanılarak elde edilen
kuraklık afet ve hassasiyetlik göstergeleri yardımıyla Türkiye genelinde
kuraklık riski bulanık mantık çıkarımı (BMÇ) yaklaşımıyla bütüncül olarak
değerlendirilmiştir. Kuraklık afetinin tam olarak anlaşılmasında kuraklık risk
ve hassasiyetinin önemi bilinse de Türkiye için bütüncül ve yeterli miktarda
bilimsel çalışmanın varlığından bahsetmek zordur. Kuraklık Afet Göstergesi
(KAG) kuraklığın görülme ihtimaline dayanan standart yağış göstergesi (SYG)
(Standardized Precipitation Index-SPI) kullanılarak kuraklık kavramının daha
iyi anlaşılmasını kolaylaştırmak için hesaplanmıştır. Bunun yanında, Kuraklık
Hassasiyet Göstergesi (KHG) kuraklığın sonuçlarının bağlı olduğu güncel dört
adet sosyo-ekonomik veri kullanılarak hesaplanmıştır. BMÇ yardımıyla kuraklık
afet ve hassasiyet göstergelerinin, kuraklık riskinin belirlenmesindeki
öneminin vurgulanması bu çalışmanın temel hedefidir. Çalışma sonucunda elde
edilen bulgulara göre Türkiye genelinde 81 il arasında 5 ilin düşük kuraklık
riski taşıdığı, 61 ilin orta kuraklık riskine sahip olduğu, 14 ilde yüksek
kuraklık riskinin bulunduğu ve son olarak sadece Konya’da çok yüksek kuraklık
riski ortaya çıktığı tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

Kuraklık, SYG, afet, risk, hassasiyet, bulanık mantık, Türkiye

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