Analyzing The Length of Unemployment Among First-Time Job Seekers in Emerging Countries: Case of Turkey

Year 2024, , 1 - 24, 30.06.2024

Deniz Keskin Özberk , Didem Cicerali

https://doi.org/10.35342/econder.1312135

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze the factors that influence the unemployment duration of individuals entering labor market for the first time and those who have experienced working life before by using the 2020 Household Labor Force Surveys (HLFS) prepared by Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT). Further, the effects of individual unique factors such as gender, age, marital status, family size and education level on unemployment duration are examined. Empirical results using the Cox Proportional Hazard Model, which is a semi-parametric version of survival analysis, show that the first time job seekers are at risk regardless of genders. Also, family size has no statistically significant impact on unemployment duration, while being married, divorced or widowed has decreasing effect. It takes longer time for women to find a job than men. Another important finding is that as the education level of individuals increases, the duration of their job search increases.

Keywords

Cox Proportion Regression, Labor Force Participation, Unemployment Duration

References

• Allison, P. D. (2016). Survival Analysis. Survival Analysis.PhD. Thesis.
• Chuang, H.-L. (1999). Estimating the Determinants of the Unemployment Duration for College Graduates in Taiwan. Applied Economic Letters, 677-681.
• Cox, D. R. (1972). Regression Models and Life-Tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), 187-220.
• Dendir, S. (2006). Unemployment Duration in Poor Developing Economies: Evidence from Urban Ethiopia. The Journal of Developing Areas(No.47), 181-201.
• Dhanani, S. (2004). Unemployment and Underemployment in Indonesia,1976-2000: Paradoxes and Issues. International Labour Office.
• Dickens, W. T., & Lang, K. (1995). An Analysis of the Nature of Unemployment in Sri Lanka. The Journal of Development Studies, 31(4), 620-636.
• Eckstein, Z., & Wolpin., K. I. (1995). Duration to First Job and the Return to Schooling: Estimates from a Search-Matching Model. The Review of Economic Studies, 62(2), 263-286.
• Fitzenberger, B., & Wilke, R. A. (2007). New Insights on Unemployment Duration and Post Unem-ployment Earnings in Germany: Censored Box–Cox Quantile Regression at Work. Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Discussion Paper No. 2609.
• Galecka-Burdziak, E. (2016). Multiple Unemployment Spells Duration in Poland. Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
• George, B., Seals, S., & Aban, I. (2014). Survival analysis and regression models. Journal of Nuclear Cardiology, 686-694.
• Goldsmith, A. H., Veum, J. R., & Darity Jr., W. (1996). The Psychological Impact of Unemployment and Joblessness. The Journal of Socio-Economics, 25(3), 333-358.
• ILO, I. L. (2004). Sources and Methods: Labour Statistics. Geneva.
• Jenkins, S. P. (2005). Survival analysis. Unpublished manuscript, Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Colchester, UK, 42, 54-56.
• Karasoy, D., Tutkun, N. A., & Bulut, V. (2015). Türkiye'deki İşsizlik Süresini Etkileyen Faktörler. International Journal of Management Economics and Business-IJMEB, 57-76.
• Kenneth, B., Lagos, R., & Wright, R. (2004). An On-the-job Search Model of Crime, Inequality, and Unemployment. International Economic Review, 45(3), 681-706.
• Keskin-Özberk, D. (2021). The Role Of Demographic Variables on Unemployment Duration. Finance, Politics And Economic Reviews, 58(655), 39-57.
• Khan, T., & Yousaf, F. (2013). Unemployment Duration of First Time Job Seekers: A case study of Bahawalpur. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 8-19.
• Lassibille et al., G. (2001). Youth Transition from School to Work in Spain. Economics of Education Review, 20(2), 139-149.
• Murphy, G. C., & Athanasou, J. A. (1999). The Effect of Unemployment on Mental Health. Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology(72), 83-99.
• Nickell, S. (1979, September). Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment. Econometrica, 47(5), 1249-1266.
• Podivinsky, J. M., & McVicar, D. (2002). Unemployment Duration Before and After New Deal. Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre Working Paper Series No.74.
• Reyher, L., Koller, M., & Spitznagel, E. (1980). Employment Policy Alternatives to Unemployment in theFederal Republic of Germany. Issues, Effects on the Labour Market and Costs.
• Tansel, A., & Tasci, H. M. (2004). Determinants of Unemployment Duration for Men and Women in Turkey. (512222 ).
• Tansel, A., & Taşcı, H. M. (2010, March). Hazard Analysis of Unemployment Duration by Gender in a Developing Country: The Case of Turkey. IZA Discussion Paper No. 4844, 1-49.
• Tasci, H. M. (2005). Determinants of Unemployment Duration for the First-Time Job-Seekers in Turkey. The Journal of Administrative Sciences.
• Tasci, H. M., & Ozdemir, A. R. (2005). Trends in Long-Term Unemployment and Determinants of Incidence of Long-Term Unemployment in Turkey.
• Taşçı, H. M., & Tansel, A. (2005). Youth Unemployment Duration in Turkey.
• Taşçı, H., Özdemir, A., & Darıcı, B. (2015). Which Group of Individuals are subjected to Get Long-Term Unemployed During and After a Recession? Evidence from Turkey. Sosyoekonomi, 23(24), 143-162.
• Turnham, D., & Eröcal, D. (1990, July). Unemployment in Developing Countries: New Light on an Old Problem. (Working Paper No:22), 1-67.
• Udall, A. T., & Sinclair, S. (1982, January). The `Luxury Unemployment' Hypothesis: A Review of Recent Evidence. World Development, 10(1), 49-62.
• Wolpin, K. I. (1987, July). Estimating a Structural Search Model: The Transition from School to Work. Econometrica, 55(4), 801-817.
• Yanindah, A. (2021). An insight into Youth Unemployment in Indonesia. Proceedings of The International Conference on Data Science and Official Statistics(1).