JAPONYA’DA KAMU BORCU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ (1980-2020)

Year 2022, Volume: 6 Issue: 9, 44 - 0, 30.01.2022

Bahadır Sinan

Abstract

Japonya dünyanın en gelişmiş ülkelerinden biri olup 1990’lı yıllardan itibaren ekonomik büyüme problemi yaşamaktadır. 2020 yılı sonu itibariyle dünyanın en yüksek kamu borcuna sahip Japonya da 1980-2020 dönemine ilişkin olarak; kamu borcu ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki ARDL testi ve Granger testi aracılığıyla araştırılmıştır. Öncelikle, çalışmada durağanlığın belirlenmesi için ADF, PP, KPSS birim kök testleri yapılmıştır. Birim kök testi sonuçlarına göre tüm verilerin düzeyde ve birinci farklarında durağan oldukları görülmüştür. Daha sonra seriler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığı eş-bütünleşme testi ile incelenmiştir. Seriler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Ampirik bulgular sonucunda; Japonya’da kamu borcu ve ekonomik büyüme arasında negatif bir ilişki olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Yapılan Granger nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre de kamu borcu ve ekonomik büyüme arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu saptanmıştır

Keywords

Kamu Borcu, Ekonomik Büyüme, Nedensellik İlşkisi

CAUSALİTY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GOVERNMENT DEBT AND ECONOMİC GROWTH IN JAPAN (1980-2020

Abstract

apan is one of the most developed countries in the world and has been experiencing economic growth problems since the 1990s.İn this study; The relationship between public debt and economic growth over the period 1980-2020 has been investigated through ARDL test and Granger test.in Japan which has the highest public debt in the world as the end of the 2020 Firstly, ADF PP, KPSS unit root tests were used to determine stationarity of the series. According to the result of the tests All of the variables that we have used in this study do not have the same degree of stability Then while the existence of a long-term relationship between the series was examined by the co-integration test, and The long-term relationship between the series was found. As a result of empirical findings; It has been concluded that there is a negative relationship between public debt and economic growth in Japan. According to the results of the Granger causality test, it has been determined that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between public debt and economic growth.

Keywords

Government Debt, Economic Growth, Causality

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