OECD ÜLKELERİNDE MALİYE VE PARA POLİTİKALARININ İKTİSADİ BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİNİN TAHMİN EDİLMESİ: 1996-2021 DÖNEMİ

Year 2023, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 81 - 94, 26.06.2023

Mustafa Alpin Gülşen , Uğur Çiçek

Abstract

MALİYE VE PARA POLİTİKALARININ İKTİSADİ BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİ

Keywords

: Fiscal policy, monetary policy, growth, OECD countries, panel fixed effects analysis

Estimating the Effect of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on Economic Growth in OECD Countries: 1996-2021 Period

Abstract

Theoretical and empirical debates on the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on economic growth are quite old and extensive. This paper examines the monetary and fiscal policies affecting the economic growth of OECD countries between 1996 and 2021. The method of the study is panel data analysis using a fixed effects estimator. The research question of this study is “what is the effect of monetary and fiscal policies on economic growth”, and theoretical and empirical studies in the literature were used to answer this question. Growth was used as the dependent variable for this purpose. As independent variables, an exchange rate and inflation were used to represent monetary policy. Government expenditure and government revenue are used as other independent variables to represent fiscal policy. According to the results of the analysis, monetary and fiscal policies affect economic growth. Hence, while the exchange rate (-0.001) and public expenditure (-0.880) affect economic growth negatively, inflation (0.005) and public income (0.274) affect economic growth positively. However, the coefficients of the variables are different from each other. While the effect of the monetary policy variables used in the analysis on growth is quite small, the coefficients of the fiscal policy variables are large. In addition, in the study, a discussion about which of the monetary and fiscal policy options that became popular, especially in times of crisis is effective, is discussed for the COVID period. Historically, in every crisis period, justice in income distribution deteriorates and inequalities increase.

Keywords

: Fiscal policy, monetary policy, growth, OECD countries, panel fixed effects analysis

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