Peaks Over Threshold Method Application on Airborne Particulate Matter (PM10) and Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) Pollution Detection in Specified Regions of İstanbul

Year 2018, Issue: 14, 399 - 407, 31.12.2018

Hasan Saygın , Özge Eren , Hasan Volkan Oral

Abstract

In this study, we investigate the application of peak
over threshold (POT)  method on extreme events
which usually appears with low frequently but high effects. Daily averages of PM₁₀
and SO₂ pollutants are measured at 5 permanent monitoring stations
in İstanbul (Beşiktaş, Yenibosna, Alibeyköy, Esenler, Aksaray). The SO₂
and PM₁₀ concentration dataare obtained from İstanbul Municipality
through a period from January 2009 to December 2015.Daily averages of theconcentrations are analyzed by using peaks over
threshold methods of extreme value theory and then predicted for the largest
concentrations for the following 12 months. We find thatPOT methods
can provide useful information about the occurrence of limit exceedances of air
pollution in Istanbul and these
models can easily be used to make short term predictions about limit
exceedances.As a consequence, we can say that predicting the air pollutant levels of SO₂ and PM₁₀ will be beneficial for the decision
makers which help them to develop advanced policies to control and prevent the
air pollution.

Keywords

Extreme value theory

Peaks Over Threshold Method Application on Airborne Particulate Matter (PM10) and Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) Pollution Detection in Specified Regions of İstanbul

Abstract

In this study, we investigate the application of peak
over threshold (POT)  method on extreme events
which usually appears with low frequently but high effects. Daily averages of PM₁₀
and SO₂ pollutants are measured at 5 permanent monitoring stations
in İstanbul (Beşiktaş, Yenibosna, Alibeyköy, Esenler, Aksaray). The SO₂
and PM₁₀ concentration dataare obtained from İstanbul Municipality
through a period from January 2009 to December 2015. Daily averages of theconcentrations are analyzed by using peaks over
threshold methods of extreme value theory and then predicted for the largest
concentrations for the following 12 months. We find thatPOT methods
can provide useful information about the occurrence of limit exceedances of air
pollution in Istanbul and these
models can easily be used to make short term predictions about limit
exceedances.As a consequence, we can say that predicting the air pollutant levels of SO₂ and PM₁₀ will be beneficial for the decision
makers which help them to develop advanced policies to control and prevent the
air pollution.

Keywords

POT, extreme Value Theory, İstanbul air quality, PM10

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