The Determinants of International Migration in the Context of Terrorist Attacks: A Panel Data Analysis

Year 2024, Issue: 40, 110 - 120, 26.06.2024

Bengü Tosun , Murat Eren

https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2024.40.1383347

Abstract

In this study, which was developed to examine the determinants of international migration, the validity of the Neo – Classical migration approach, which claims that the main determinant of the migration decision is economic factors, was tested and the relations between the variables were investigated taking into account various economic indicators as well as terrorist incidents. The study was developed within the scope of the 20 countries that receive the most immigrants in the world, and the migration movements from the countries that give the most immigrants to each immigrant receiving country were examined with the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator using the five – year data for the period 1995 – 2020 within the framework of the multidimensional panel gravity model. The findings show that the income level in the destination countries negatively affects the migration movements, while the terrorist attacks in the origin countries and the inflation rate of the origin countries affects it positively. In addition, it was determined that the income level and unemployment rate of the origin countries are not statistically significant. In parallel with the findings, it was concluded that the Neo – Classical migration theory is not valid for the countries covered in the research and that the security factor is more important in the migration decision.

Keywords

International migration, terrorist attacks, Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood

Terörist Faaliyetler Bağlamında Uluslararası Göçün Belirleyicileri: Panel Veri Analizi

Abstract

Uluslararası göçün belirleyicilerini incelemeye yönelik geliştirilen bu çalışmada, göç kararının temel belirleyicisinin ekonomik faktörler olduğunu ileri süren Neo – Klasik göç yaklaşımının geçerliliği sınanmış ve çeşitli ekonomik göstergeler ile birlikte terör olayları da göz önünde bulundurularak değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler araştırılmıştır. Çalışma, dünyada en çok göç alan 20 ülke kapsamında geliştirilmiş ve her bir göç alan ülkeye en çok göç veren ülkelerden göç hareketleri çok boyutlu panel çekim modeli çerçevesinde 1995 – 2020 dönemi beş yıllık verileri kullanılarak Poisson Pseudo En Çok Olabilirlik Tahmincisi ile incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, göç alan ülkelerdeki gelir düzeyinin göç hareketlerini negatif yönde, göç veren ülkelerde gerçekleşen terör olaylarının ve göç veren ülkelerin enflasyon oranının uluslararası göç hareketlerini pozitif yönde etkilediğini göstermiştir. Göç veren ülkelerin gelir düzeyinin ve işsizlik oranının ise istatistiksel olarak etkili olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular paralelinde araştırma kapsamında ele alınan ülkeler için Neo – Klasik göç teorisinin geçerli olmadığı, güvenlik faktörünün göç kararında daha etkili olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

Uluslararası göç, terörist saldırılar, Poisson pseudo en çok olabilirlik tahmincisi

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