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Analyzing the volatility spillover and cointegration relationship between daily spot West Texas intermediate crude oil price and US dollar

Year 2023, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 21 - 31, 30.06.2023

Utku Altunöz

https://doi.org/10.58251/ekonomi.1255288
Cited By: 3

Abstract

In the study, it is aimed to analyze the diffusion and cointegration relationship between WTI and US Dollar in the period of 2016-2021. In the study, after a comprehensive literature review of the theoretical review, the econometric analysis section was started. In the first part of the analysis, the short and long-term relationships between the variables were examined with the autoregressive distributed lag methodology and the existence of a cointegration relationship was reached. According to the findings, the effect of WTI on foreign exchange volatility in the long run is statistically significant and negative. In the short-term evaluation, ECT is negative and significant within expectations. In this context, the changes between the variables approach the long-term equilibrium level. According to the results obtained in the causality and variance causality analyzes applied in the last part of the analysis, it is understood that there is a volatility spillover effect from WTI to foreign currency.

References

  • Ağazade, S. (2020). Petrol Fiyatları ve Kazakistan Reel Döviz Kuru: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Bilig, (94), 217-248 .
  • Ağazade, S. (2018). Reel Döviz Kuru ve Petrol Fiyatları İlişkisinde Asimetri: Azerbaycan Örneğinde Bir İnceleme. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 22, 113-126.
  • Amano, R.A. &Van Norden, S. (1998). Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate. J. Int. Money Financ., 17 (2), 299–316.
  • Amano, R.A. & Simon V. N. (1998a). Exchange Rates and Oil Prices. Review of International Economics, 6 (4), 683-694.
  • Baek, J. (2021). The role of crude oil prices in the movement of the Indonesian rupiah: a quantile ARDL approach. Economic Change and Restructuring, 54(4), 975-994.
  • Baek, J., & Kim, H. Y. (2020). On the relation between crude oil prices and exchange rates in sub-saharan African countries: A nonlinear ARDL Approach. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 29(1), 119-130.
  • Baumeister, C., Guérin, P., & Kilian, L., (2015). Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work. Int. J. Forecast., 31 (2), 238–252.
  • Beckmann, J. & Czudaj, R. (2017). Exchange rate expectations and economic policy uncertainty. European J. of Political Economy, 47, 148–162.
  • Beckmann, J.; Czudaj, R.L. & Arora, V. (2020). The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence. Energy Economics,1-12.
  • Bloomberg (2023). WTI Crude Oil Subindex, (çevrin içi), https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BCOMCL:IND#xj4y7vzkg, Access on:7.4.2023.
  • Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Real Broad Dollar Index (Goods Only) (DISCONTINUED) [TWEXBPA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TWEXBPA, February 18, 2022.
  • Büberkökü, Ö. (2021). Reel Efektif Döviz Kurları ile Reel Petrol Fiyatları Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin Analizi. Igdir University Journal of Social Sciences, 26, 290-313.
  • Buetzer, S., Habib, M.M. & Stracca, L. (2016). Global exchange rate configurations: do oil shocks matter? IMF Econ. Rev., 64, 443–470.
  • Caprio, J. & Peter B. C. (1981). Oil Price Shocks in a Portfolio-balance Model. International Finance Discussion Papers, Number 181.
  • Chaudhuri, K. & Betty C. D. (1998). Long-run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates and Oil Prices. Economics Letters, 58(2), 231-238.
  • Cheung, Y.W., & Ng, L.K. (1996). A Causality-in-Variance Test and It’s Application to Financial Market Prices. Journal of Econometrics, 72, 33–48.
  • Clemente, J, Montañés, A & Reyes, M (1998). Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean. Economics Letters, vol. 59, 175-182.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distributions of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of American Statistical Association,74(366), 427-431.
  • Doane, P., D., & Seward, E. L. (2011). Measuring Skewness: A Forgotten Statistic? Journal of Statistics Education, 19(2), 2(2011).
  • Eichenbaum, M., & Singleton, K., J.(1986). Do Equilibrium Real Business Cycle Theories Explain Postwar U.S. Business Cycles, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986: 91–146.
  • Engle, R. & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Cointegration and Error-correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
  • Hafner C., M., & Herwartz, H. (2006). A Lagrange Multiplier Test for Casuallity in Variance. Economic Letters, 93, 137-141.
  • Hafner, C., M., & Herwartz, H. (2008). Testing for Causality in Variance Using Multivariate GARCH Models, Annales d’Économie et de Statistique, No. 89 (Jan. - Mar., 2008), pp. 215-241.
  • Hong, Y. M., & White, H. (2001). Asymptotic Theory for Nonparametric Entropy Measures of Serial Dependence. Department of Economics and Department of Statistical Science, Cornell University.
  • Huang, B. N., Lee, C. C., Chang, Y. F. & Lee, C. C. (2020). Dynamic Linkage Between Oil Prices and Exchange Rates: New Global Evidence. Empirical Economics, 1-24.
  • Jahan-P, Mohammad R. & Hassan M. (2011). Oil Prices and Real Exchange Rates in Oil-exporting Countries: A Bounds Testing Approach. The Journal of Developing Areas. 45, 309-318.
  • Jammazi, R., Lahiani, A., & Nyugen, D.K. (2015). A wavelet-based nonlinear ARDL model for assessing the exchange rate pass-through to crude oil prices. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 34, 173-187.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics, and Control, 12, 231-254.
  • Johansen, S. & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration-with Application to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
  • Karacan, S. (2022). Ham Petrol Fiyatlarının Türk Lirasının Reel Efektif Döviz Üzerindeki Etkisi : Kantil ARDL Yaklaşımı. Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 13 (25), 417-440 .
  • Kisswani, K. M., Harraf, A., & Kisswani, A. M. (2019). Revisiting the Effects of Oil Prices on Exchange Rate: Asymmetric Evidence from The ASEAN-5 Countries. Economic Change and Restructuring, 52(3), 279-300.
  • Kizilkaya, F. (2021). Türkiye’de petrol fiyatları ve reel döviz kuru ilişkisinin asimetrik fourier nedensellik analizi ile incelenmesi. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi - Istanbul Journal of Economics, 71(2), 549-568.
  • Koranchelian, T (2005). The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country: Algeria’s Experience. IMF Working Paper Series WP/05/135.
  • Korhonen, L. & Tuuli J. (2007). Equilibrium Exchange Rates in OilDependent Countries. BOFIT Discussion Paper No. 8/2007.
  • Korhonen, L. & Tuuli, J. (2007). Equilibrium Exchange Rates in OilDependent Countries. BOFIT Discussion Paper No. 8/2007.
  • Lee, J. & Strazicizh, M.C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4),1082-1089.
  • Lv, X., Lien, D., Chen, Q. & Yu, C. (2018). Does Exchange Rate Management Affect The Causality Between Exchange Rates and Oil Prices? Evidence From Oil-Exporting Countries. Energy Economics, 76, 325-343.
  • Nazlioglu, S., Erdem, C. & Soytas, U., (2013). Volatility spillover between oil and agricultural commodity markets. Energy Economics, 36, 658-665.
  • Nikbakht, L. (2010). Oil Prices and Exchange Rates: The Case of OPEC. Business Intelligence Journal, 3, 83-92
  • Ogundipe, M., O., Ojeaga, P. & Ogundipe A., A. (2014). Oil Price and Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria, IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance (IOSR-JEF) e-ISSN: 2321-5933, p-ISSN: 2321-5925. 5(4), (Sep.-Oct. 2014), 01-09.
  • Ojebiyi, A. & Wilson, D., O. (2011). Exchange Rate Volatility: An Analysis Of The Relationship Between The Nigerian Naira, Oil Prices, And Us Dollar, Gothland University, Master Thesis in Business Administration 15 ECTS, Spring Semester 2011.
  • Reboredo, J. C. (2012). Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements. Journal of Policy Modeling, 34(3), 419-440.
  • Reboredo, J.C., (2011). How do crude oil prices co-move? A copula approach. Energy Economics, 33, 948-955.
  • Şenol, Z. (2020). Borsa, Döviz Kuru ve Petrol Fiyatları Arasındaki Oynaklık Yayılımı. Muhasebe Bilim Dünyası Dergisi, 22(4), 629-647.
  • Shi, S., Hurn, S., & Phillips, P., B., (2020). Causal Change Detection in Possibly Integrated Systems: Revisiting the Money- Income Relationship. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 18,1,158-180.
  • Shrestha, M., B. & Chowdhury, K. (2005). ARDL Modelling Approach to Testing the Financial Liberalisation, Working Paper 05-15, Department of Economics, University of Wollongong.
  • Tantatape, B., Huang, J.C. & Sissoko, Y.(2014). Crude oil prices and exchange rates: causality, variance decomposition and impulse response. Energy Econ. 44, 407–412.
  • Torun, E. & Demireli, E. (2022). Petrol ve Döviz Piyasaları Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri: Dalgacık (Wavelet) Analizi ile Bir Uygulama. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 37 (3) , 714-739 .
  • Wang, Y. & Chongfeng W. (2012). Energy Prices and Exchange Rates of the U.S. Dollar: Further Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Causality Analysis. Economic Modelling 29, 2289-2297.
  • Yaman, D. (2021). Petrol Fiyatları ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki İlişkiye Asimetrik Bakış Açısı: Türkiye Örneği. Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 6(2), 155-170.
  • Yılmaz, A. & Altay,H.(2016). Examining The Cointegration Relationship and Volatility Spillover Between Imported Crude Oil Prices and Exchange Rate; The Turkish Case. Ege Academic Revıew, 16(4),655-671.
  • Yousefi, A. & Wirjanto, T. S. (2004). The empirical role of the exchange rate on the crude-oil price formation. Energy Economics, 26(5), 783–799.
  • Zalduendo, J. (2006). Determinants of Venezuela’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate. IMF Working Paper Series WP/06/74.
  • Zhang, Y. (2013). The Links between the Price of Oil and the Value of US Dollar. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 3(4), 341-351.
  • Zhang, Y., Ying F., Hsien-Tang T. & Yi-Ming W. (2008). Spillover Effect of US Dollar Exchange Rate on Oil Prices. Journal of Policy Modeling 30(6), 973-991.

Analyzing the volatility spillover and cointegration relationship between daily spot West Texas intermediate crude oil price and US dollar

Year 2023, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 21 - 31, 30.06.2023

Utku Altunöz

https://doi.org/10.58251/ekonomi.1255288
Cited By: 3

Abstract

In the study, it is aimed to analyze the diffusion and cointegration relationship between WTI and US Dollar in the period of 2016-2021. In the study, after a comprehensive literature review of the theoretical review, the econometric analysis section was started. In the first part of the analysis, the short and long-term relationships between the variables were examined with the autoregressive distributed lag methodology and the existence of a cointegration relationship was reached. According to the findings, the effect of WTI on foreign exchange volatility in the long run is statistically significant and negative. In the short-term evaluation, ECT is negative and significant within expectations. In this context, the changes between the variables approach the long-term equilibrium level. According to the results obtained in the causality and variance causality analyzes applied in the last part of the analysis, it is understood that there is a volatility spillover effect from WTI to foreign currency.

Keywords

oil spillover exchange

References

  • Ağazade, S. (2020). Petrol Fiyatları ve Kazakistan Reel Döviz Kuru: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Bilig, (94), 217-248 .
  • Ağazade, S. (2018). Reel Döviz Kuru ve Petrol Fiyatları İlişkisinde Asimetri: Azerbaycan Örneğinde Bir İnceleme. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 22, 113-126.
  • Amano, R.A. &Van Norden, S. (1998). Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate. J. Int. Money Financ., 17 (2), 299–316.
  • Amano, R.A. & Simon V. N. (1998a). Exchange Rates and Oil Prices. Review of International Economics, 6 (4), 683-694.
  • Baek, J. (2021). The role of crude oil prices in the movement of the Indonesian rupiah: a quantile ARDL approach. Economic Change and Restructuring, 54(4), 975-994.
  • Baek, J., & Kim, H. Y. (2020). On the relation between crude oil prices and exchange rates in sub-saharan African countries: A nonlinear ARDL Approach. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 29(1), 119-130.
  • Baumeister, C., Guérin, P., & Kilian, L., (2015). Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work. Int. J. Forecast., 31 (2), 238–252.
  • Beckmann, J. & Czudaj, R. (2017). Exchange rate expectations and economic policy uncertainty. European J. of Political Economy, 47, 148–162.
  • Beckmann, J.; Czudaj, R.L. & Arora, V. (2020). The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence. Energy Economics,1-12.
  • Bloomberg (2023). WTI Crude Oil Subindex, (çevrin içi), https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BCOMCL:IND#xj4y7vzkg, Access on:7.4.2023.
  • Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Real Broad Dollar Index (Goods Only) (DISCONTINUED) [TWEXBPA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TWEXBPA, February 18, 2022.
  • Büberkökü, Ö. (2021). Reel Efektif Döviz Kurları ile Reel Petrol Fiyatları Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin Analizi. Igdir University Journal of Social Sciences, 26, 290-313.
  • Buetzer, S., Habib, M.M. & Stracca, L. (2016). Global exchange rate configurations: do oil shocks matter? IMF Econ. Rev., 64, 443–470.
  • Caprio, J. & Peter B. C. (1981). Oil Price Shocks in a Portfolio-balance Model. International Finance Discussion Papers, Number 181.
  • Chaudhuri, K. & Betty C. D. (1998). Long-run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates and Oil Prices. Economics Letters, 58(2), 231-238.
  • Cheung, Y.W., & Ng, L.K. (1996). A Causality-in-Variance Test and It’s Application to Financial Market Prices. Journal of Econometrics, 72, 33–48.
  • Clemente, J, Montañés, A & Reyes, M (1998). Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean. Economics Letters, vol. 59, 175-182.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distributions of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of American Statistical Association,74(366), 427-431.
  • Doane, P., D., & Seward, E. L. (2011). Measuring Skewness: A Forgotten Statistic? Journal of Statistics Education, 19(2), 2(2011).
  • Eichenbaum, M., & Singleton, K., J.(1986). Do Equilibrium Real Business Cycle Theories Explain Postwar U.S. Business Cycles, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986: 91–146.
  • Engle, R. & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Cointegration and Error-correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
  • Hafner C., M., & Herwartz, H. (2006). A Lagrange Multiplier Test for Casuallity in Variance. Economic Letters, 93, 137-141.
  • Hafner, C., M., & Herwartz, H. (2008). Testing for Causality in Variance Using Multivariate GARCH Models, Annales d’Économie et de Statistique, No. 89 (Jan. - Mar., 2008), pp. 215-241.
  • Hong, Y. M., & White, H. (2001). Asymptotic Theory for Nonparametric Entropy Measures of Serial Dependence. Department of Economics and Department of Statistical Science, Cornell University.
  • Huang, B. N., Lee, C. C., Chang, Y. F. & Lee, C. C. (2020). Dynamic Linkage Between Oil Prices and Exchange Rates: New Global Evidence. Empirical Economics, 1-24.
  • Jahan-P, Mohammad R. & Hassan M. (2011). Oil Prices and Real Exchange Rates in Oil-exporting Countries: A Bounds Testing Approach. The Journal of Developing Areas. 45, 309-318.
  • Jammazi, R., Lahiani, A., & Nyugen, D.K. (2015). A wavelet-based nonlinear ARDL model for assessing the exchange rate pass-through to crude oil prices. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 34, 173-187.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics, and Control, 12, 231-254.
  • Johansen, S. & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration-with Application to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
  • Karacan, S. (2022). Ham Petrol Fiyatlarının Türk Lirasının Reel Efektif Döviz Üzerindeki Etkisi : Kantil ARDL Yaklaşımı. Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 13 (25), 417-440 .
  • Kisswani, K. M., Harraf, A., & Kisswani, A. M. (2019). Revisiting the Effects of Oil Prices on Exchange Rate: Asymmetric Evidence from The ASEAN-5 Countries. Economic Change and Restructuring, 52(3), 279-300.
  • Kizilkaya, F. (2021). Türkiye’de petrol fiyatları ve reel döviz kuru ilişkisinin asimetrik fourier nedensellik analizi ile incelenmesi. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi - Istanbul Journal of Economics, 71(2), 549-568.
  • Koranchelian, T (2005). The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country: Algeria’s Experience. IMF Working Paper Series WP/05/135.
  • Korhonen, L. & Tuuli J. (2007). Equilibrium Exchange Rates in OilDependent Countries. BOFIT Discussion Paper No. 8/2007.
  • Korhonen, L. & Tuuli, J. (2007). Equilibrium Exchange Rates in OilDependent Countries. BOFIT Discussion Paper No. 8/2007.
  • Lee, J. & Strazicizh, M.C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4),1082-1089.
  • Lv, X., Lien, D., Chen, Q. & Yu, C. (2018). Does Exchange Rate Management Affect The Causality Between Exchange Rates and Oil Prices? Evidence From Oil-Exporting Countries. Energy Economics, 76, 325-343.
  • Nazlioglu, S., Erdem, C. & Soytas, U., (2013). Volatility spillover between oil and agricultural commodity markets. Energy Economics, 36, 658-665.
  • Nikbakht, L. (2010). Oil Prices and Exchange Rates: The Case of OPEC. Business Intelligence Journal, 3, 83-92
  • Ogundipe, M., O., Ojeaga, P. & Ogundipe A., A. (2014). Oil Price and Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria, IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance (IOSR-JEF) e-ISSN: 2321-5933, p-ISSN: 2321-5925. 5(4), (Sep.-Oct. 2014), 01-09.
  • Ojebiyi, A. & Wilson, D., O. (2011). Exchange Rate Volatility: An Analysis Of The Relationship Between The Nigerian Naira, Oil Prices, And Us Dollar, Gothland University, Master Thesis in Business Administration 15 ECTS, Spring Semester 2011.
  • Reboredo, J. C. (2012). Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements. Journal of Policy Modeling, 34(3), 419-440.
  • Reboredo, J.C., (2011). How do crude oil prices co-move? A copula approach. Energy Economics, 33, 948-955.
  • Şenol, Z. (2020). Borsa, Döviz Kuru ve Petrol Fiyatları Arasındaki Oynaklık Yayılımı. Muhasebe Bilim Dünyası Dergisi, 22(4), 629-647.
  • Shi, S., Hurn, S., & Phillips, P., B., (2020). Causal Change Detection in Possibly Integrated Systems: Revisiting the Money- Income Relationship. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 18,1,158-180.
  • Shrestha, M., B. & Chowdhury, K. (2005). ARDL Modelling Approach to Testing the Financial Liberalisation, Working Paper 05-15, Department of Economics, University of Wollongong.
  • Tantatape, B., Huang, J.C. & Sissoko, Y.(2014). Crude oil prices and exchange rates: causality, variance decomposition and impulse response. Energy Econ. 44, 407–412.
  • Torun, E. & Demireli, E. (2022). Petrol ve Döviz Piyasaları Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri: Dalgacık (Wavelet) Analizi ile Bir Uygulama. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 37 (3) , 714-739 .
  • Wang, Y. & Chongfeng W. (2012). Energy Prices and Exchange Rates of the U.S. Dollar: Further Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Causality Analysis. Economic Modelling 29, 2289-2297.
  • Yaman, D. (2021). Petrol Fiyatları ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki İlişkiye Asimetrik Bakış Açısı: Türkiye Örneği. Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 6(2), 155-170.
  • Yılmaz, A. & Altay,H.(2016). Examining The Cointegration Relationship and Volatility Spillover Between Imported Crude Oil Prices and Exchange Rate; The Turkish Case. Ege Academic Revıew, 16(4),655-671.
  • Yousefi, A. & Wirjanto, T. S. (2004). The empirical role of the exchange rate on the crude-oil price formation. Energy Economics, 26(5), 783–799.
  • Zalduendo, J. (2006). Determinants of Venezuela’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate. IMF Working Paper Series WP/06/74.
  • Zhang, Y. (2013). The Links between the Price of Oil and the Value of US Dollar. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 3(4), 341-351.
  • Zhang, Y., Ying F., Hsien-Tang T. & Yi-Ming W. (2008). Spillover Effect of US Dollar Exchange Rate on Oil Prices. Journal of Policy Modeling 30(6), 973-991.
There are 55 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Utku Altunöz 0000-0002-0232-3108

Early Pub Date April 28, 2023
Publication Date June 30, 2023
Submission Date February 22, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 5 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Altunöz, U. (2023). Analyzing the volatility spillover and cointegration relationship between daily spot West Texas intermediate crude oil price and US dollar. Journal of Ekonomi, 5(1), 21-31. https://doi.org/10.58251/ekonomi.1255288

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