Labour Market Aspirations of Ukrainian Refugees: Determinants and Challenges

Year 2025, Volume: 14 Issue: 1, 132 - 153, 12.03.2025

Esra Karapınar Kocağ

Abstract

This study analyses factors influencing Ukrainian refugees’ migration for work, using household-level data from the UNHCR Survey of Intentions and Perspectives of Refugees from Ukraine. Applying logistic regression and propensity score matching (PSM), it examines key determinants, including gender, age, education, residence status, and planned return duration. Results show men are more likely than women to migrate for work (odds ratio: 2.01), highlighting gender-specific barriers. Older individuals and those with higher education levels exhibit lower migration likelihoods. Refugees in private accommodations are less likely to migrate, suggesting housing stability affects mobility. Longer planned return durations increase work-related migration (odds ratio: 1.25), while travelling with a larger family reduces it. These findings highlight the complexity of refugee labour market integration and the need for policies addressing gender disparities, housing stability, and long-term employment prospects to support refugees’ economic inclusion.

Keywords

Migration, Refugees, Ukraine, Household Level Analysis, Labour Market

Ethical Statement

A part of this study was presented at the 31st Turkish Economic Association (TEA) Conference on Economics (TEA2024), held in-person at the Fethiye Faculty of Business Administration in Fethiye, Muğla, Türkiye, from October 31 to November 2, 2024.

Ukraynalı Mültecilerin İşgücü Piyasası Beklentileri: Belirleyiciler ve Zorluklar

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Ukraynalı mültecilerin iş amaçlı göç kararlarını etkileyen faktörleri, UNHCR Ukraynalı Mültecilerin Niyetleri ve Perspektifleri Anketi’nin hanehalkı düzeyindeki verilerini kullanarak analiz etmektedir. Lojistik regresyon ve olasılık eşleştirme (PSM) yöntemlerini uygulayarak cinsiyet, yaş, eğitim, ikamet durumu ve planlanan dönüş süresi gibi temel belirleyicileri incelemektedir. Sonuçlar, erkeklerin kadınlara kıyasla iş amaçlı göç etme olasılığının daha yüksek olduğunu (olasılık oranı: 2,01) göstermekte ve toplumsal cinsiyete dayalı işgücü piyasası engellerine işaret etmektedir. Yaşlı bireyler ve yüksek eğitim seviyesine sahip olanlar daha düşük göç eğilimi göstermektedir. Özel konutlarda yaşayan mültecilerin göç etme olasılığı daha düşüktür, bu da barınma istikrarının hareketlilik kararlarını etkilediğini düşündürmektedir. Daha uzun planlanan dönüş süreleri iş amaçlı göçü artırırken (olasılık oranı: 1,25), daha büyük ailelerle seyahat etmek bu olasılığı azaltmaktadır. Bulgular, mültecilerin işgücü piyasasına entegrasyonunun karmaşıklığını vurgulayarak toplumsal cinsiyet eşitsizlikleri, barınma istikrarı ve uzun vadeli istihdam olanaklarına yönelik politika gerekliliğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

Göç, Mülteciler, Ukrayna, Hanehalkı Düzeyinde Analiz, İşgücü Piyasası

References

• Aiyar, S., Barkbu, B., Batini, N., Berger, H., Detragiache, E., Dizioli, A., Ebeke, C., Lin, H., Kaltani, L., Sosa, S., Spilimbergo, A., & Topalova, P. (2016). The refugee surge in Europe: Economic challenges (IMF Staff Discussion Note No. 16/02). International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2016/sdn1602.pdf
• Bevelander, P., & Pendakur, R. (2014). The labor market integration of refugee and family reunion immigrants: A comparison of outcomes in Canada and Sweden. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 40(5), 689-709.
• Bloch, A. (2008). Refugees in the UK labour market: The conflict between economic integration and policy-led labour market restriction. Journal of Social Policy, 37(1), 21-36. https://doi.org/10.1017/S004727940700147X
• Brücker, H., Ette, A., Grabka, M. M., Kosyakova, Y., Niehues, W., Rother, N., Tanis, K. (2023). Ukrainian Refugees in Germany: Evidence From a Large Representative Survey. Comparative Population Studies, 48. https://doi.org/10.12765/CPoS-2023-16
• Brücker, H., Jaschke, P., & Kosyakova, Y. (2019). Integrating refugees and asylum seekers into the German economy and society: Empirical evidence and policy objectives. Washington (DC): Migration Policy Institute.
• Cortes, K. E. (2004). Are refugees different from economic immigrants? Some empirical evidence on the heterogeneity of immigrant groups in the United States. Review of Economics and Statistics, 86(2), 465-480. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465304323031058
• Dustmann, C., Schönberg, U., & Stuhler, J. (2016). The impact of immigration: Why do studies reach such different results? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 30(4), 31-56.
• European Commission. (2022). Recommendation (EU) 2022/554 on the recognition of qualifications for people fleeing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Official Journal of the European Union. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=uriserv:OJ.LI.2022.107.01.0001.01.ENG
• European Commission. (2022). Temporary protection for people fleeing the war in Ukraine: EU measures. Brussels: European Commission.
• European Commission. (2023). Women and refugees: Integration challenges in Poland’s labor market. Brussels: European Commission.
• Fasani, F., Frattini, T., & Minale, L. (2021). Lift the ban? Initial employment restrictions and refugee labour market outcomes. Journal of the European Economic Association, 19(5), 2803-2854. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvab021
• Field, A. (2018). Discovering statistics using IBM SPSS statistics (5th ed.). SAGE Publications.
• Hosmer, D. W., Lemeshow, S., & Sturdivant, R. X. (2013). Applied logistic regression (3rd ed.). Wiley.
• Kosyakova, Y., Gatskova, K., Koch, T., Adunts, D., Braunfels, J., Goßner, L., Konle-Seidl, R., Schwanhäuser, S., & Vandenhirtz, M. (2024). Labour market integration of Ukrainian refugees: An international perspective. Institute for Employment Research (IAB). https://doku.iab.de/forschungsbericht/2024/fb1624en.pdf
• IAB (2022). Labour market integration in Germany: Refugee women take significantly longer than men. IAB Forum. https://www.iab-forum.de/en/labour-market-integration-in-germany-refugee-women-take-significantly-longer-than-men/
• OECD. (2022). International migration outlook 2022. OECD Publishing.
• OECD. (2023). Labour market integration of Ukrainian refugees: Early evidence and key policy challenges. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/20743182
• Peng, C. Y. J., Lee, K. L., & Ingersoll, G. M. (2002). An introduction to logistic regression analysis and reporting. The Journal of Educational Research, 96(1), 3–14. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220670209598786
• Skrypchenko, T. (2024). Geographic Differences in Ukrainian Refugees’ European Experiences. Retrieved from https://www.zois-berlin.de/en/publications/zois-spotlight/spotlight-on-ukraine-3-by-tetiana-skrypchenko
• UNHCR (2022a). Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Germany, France, Italy, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic, Spain, Turkey: Survey of intentions and perspectives of refugees from Ukraine #3 - Feb 2023. Accessed from: https://microdata.unhcr.org
• UNHCR (2022b). Belgium: Survey of intentions and perspectives of refugees from Ukraine #2 - Sept 2022. Accessed from: https://microdata.unhcr.org
• UNHCR. (2023). Education Report 2023 – Unlocking Potential: The Right to Education and Opportunity. UNHCR. Accessed from: https://www.unhcr.org/media/unhcr-education-report-2023-unlocking-potential-right-education-and-opportunity
• UNHCR. (2024). Ukraine refugee situation. UNHCR.
• World Bank. (2023). Economic empowerment of forcibly displaced persons from Ukraine: Assessment of the Polish legal and regulatory framework and the role of the Polish private sector. World Bank Group. https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/899da35b4a168c6426798f5760a71964-0570012023/economic-empowerment-of-forcibly-displaced-persons-from-ukraine
• World Bank. (2023). Labour market impacts of refugee influxes: A global perspective. World Bank Group.