AB ÜLKELERİNDE MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİK: PANEL REGRESYON ANALİZİ

Year 2022, , 1 - 14, 30.06.2022

Göksel Karaş

https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.1109287

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Mali sürdürülebilirlik, tüm dünyada olduğu gibi AB ülkeleri için de özellikle borç krizi sonrası dönemde önemli konular arasındadır. Özellikle 2008 küresel finansal kriz ve 2019 Covid pandemisi, dünyada hemen hemen tüm ülkeleri etkilediği gibi AB ülkelerini de ciddi şekilde etkilemiştir. Bu kapsamda maliye politikası araçları etkin şekilde kullanılmaktadır. Ülkeler arka arkaya kurtarma paketleri açıklamış ve bu paketler kamu maliyesi üzerinde ciddi yükler meydana getirmiştir. Buradan hareketle çalışmada 27 AB ülkesinin 2000-2020 döneminde mali sürdürülebilirliğinin araştırılması amaçlanmaktadır. Çalışmada kullanılan verilerin yayınlanma tarihindeki sınırlılık zaman kısıtını oluşturmaktadır. Bu kapsamda panel regresyon analiz yöntemi kullanılmış ve yapılan tahminlerin değişen varyans ve otokorelasyon sorununa karşı dirençli olmasına dikkat edilmiştir. Analizler sonucunda, kamu gelirleri ve kamu harcamaları arasındaki ilişkiden hareketle AB ülkelerinde zayıf mali sürdürülebilirliğin olduğu, birincil bütçe dengesi ile kamu borç stokunun GSYH içindeki payı arasındaki ilişkiden hareketle AB ülkelerinde mali sürdürülebilirliğin olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Çalışma gerek kullanılan yöntem gerekse de örneklem ülke grubu açısından literatürde yer alan çalışmalardan farklılaşmaktadır.

Keywords

Mali Sürdürülebilirlik, AB Ülkeleri, Panel Regresyon Analizi

THE EFFECT OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT ON TAX REVENUES: THE EXAMPLE OF G7 COUNTRIES

Abstract

Fiscal sustainability is among the important issues for EU countries, especially in the post-debt crisis period, as it is all over the world. In particular, the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2019 Covid pandemic have seriously affected EU countries as well as almost all countries in the world. In this context, fiscal policy tools are used effectively. Countries have announced bailout packages one after another, and these packages have created serious burdens on public finances. From this point of view, it is aimed to investigate the financial sustainability of 27 EU countries in the 2000-2020 period. The limitation in the date of publication of the data used in the study constitutes the time constraint. In this context, the panel regression analysis method was used and care was taken to ensure that the estimations made were robust to the heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation problem. As a result of the analyzes, it was concluded that there is weak fiscal sustainability in EU countries based on the relationship between public revenues and public expenditures, and there is no fiscal sustainability in EU countries based on the relationship between the primary budget balance and the share of public debt stock in GDP. The study differs from the studies in the literature in terms of both the method used and the sample country group.

Keywords

Financial Sustainability, EU Countries, Panel Regression Analysis

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