Do Sector and Resource Based Energy Uses Converge in Turkey? Panel TAR and Multiple Breaks Unit Root Findings

Year 2021, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 254 - 274, 30.04.2021

Kumru Türköz , Utku Utkulu

https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.863388

Abstract

Alternative solutions such as green growth, sustainable growth and increasing the share of renewable resources in energy use are proposed to eliminate the environmental pressure caused by fossil fuels. Based on this, in this study, a possible convergence relationship among the energy sources on a sectoral basis, and if so, whether this relationship is realized through fossil or renewable resources are empirically tested in the period of 1970-2017 for Turkey where sectoral transformations have taken place. Panel TAR (Threshold Autoregressive Models) data analysis findings show that there is no convergence relationship between the relevant sectors under the linear model, but there is a partial convergence under two regimes with different forms. In addition, the findings of Lumsdaine-Papell multiple structural breaks unit root analysis provide evidence that this partial convergence is realized through fossil fuels used in the relevant sectors. Renewable resources do not show convergence in any sector due to the presence of limited use areas within the sectors. This finding is considered as an indicator that the renewable energy policies and incentives in Turkey are insufficient in practice.

Keywords

Energy Use, Sector-Resource Analysis, Convergence Analysis, Panel TAR Data Analysis, Lumsdaine-Papell Multiple Breaks Unit Root Test

Türkiye’de Sektör ve Kaynak Bazlı Enerji Kullanımları Yakınsıyor mu? Panel TAR ve Çoklu Kırılmalı Birim Kök Bulguları

Abstract

Fosil yakıtların neden olduğu çevresel baskının ortadan kaldırılması için yeşil büyüme, sürdürülebilir büyüme ve yenilenebilir kaynakların enerji kullanımındaki payının artırılması gibi alternatif çözümler ortaya atılmaktadır. Buradan hareketle bu çalışmada; sektörel dönüşümlerin yaşandığı 1970-2017 dönemi Türkiye ekonomisinde sektörel bazda enerji kaynakları arasında bir olası yakınsama ilişkisinin olup olmadığı, var ise bu ilişkinin fosil mi yoksa yenilenebilir kaynaklar yoluyla mı gerçekleştiği ampirik olarak test edilmektedir. Panel TAR (Threshold Autoregressive Model-Eşik Otoregresif Model) veri analiz bulguları; ilgili sektörler arasında doğrusal model altında bir yakınsama ilişkisi olmadığına, ancak farklı formlara sahip iki rejim altında kısmi bir yakınsama ilişkisi olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Buna ek olarak gerçekleştirilen çoklu yapısal kırılmalı Lumsdaine-Papell birim kök analiz bulguları ise bu kısmi yakınsamanın ilgili sektörlerde kullanılan fosil yakıtlar aracılığıyla gerçekleştiğini göstermektedir. Sektörler içerisinde sınırlı kullanım alanı bulunması nedeniyle yenilenebilir kaynakların hiçbir sektörde yakınsama göstermiyor oluşu, yenilenebilir (temiz) enerjiye yönelmeyi amaçlayan Türkiye’nin uyguladığı politikaların ve teşviklerin uygulamada yetersiz kaldığının bir göstergesi olarak değerlendirilmektedir.

Keywords

Enerji Kullanımı, Sektör-Kaynak Analizi, Yakınsama Analizi, Panel TAR Veri Analizi, Lumsdaine-Papell Çoklu Kırılmalı Birim Kök Testi

References

• Akarsu, G. and Berke, B. (2016). Convergence of electricity consumption in Turkey: Spatial panel data analysis. SSRN Electronic Journal. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2875301
• Apergis, N. and Payne, J. E. (2010). Structural breaks and petroleum consumption in US States: Are shocks transitory or permanent? Energy Policy, 38(10), 6375-6378. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.06.015
• Aslan, A. and Kum, H. (2011). The stationary of energy consumption for Turkish disaggregate data by employing linear and nonlinear unit root tests. Energy, 36, 4256-4258. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2011.04.018
• Ben-David, D., Lumsdaine, R. L. and Papell, D. H. (1998). Unit roots, postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: Evidence from two structural breaks. (NBER Working Paper No. 6397). doi:10.3386/w6397
• Beyaert, A. and Camacho, M. (2008). TAR panel unit root tests and real convergence. Review of Development Economics, 12(3), 668-681. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9361.2008.00479.x
• Bilgili, F. (2012). Linear and nonlinear TAR panel unit root analyses for solid biomass energy supply of European Countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16, 6775-6781. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2012.07.023
• British Petroleum. (2018). BP statistical review of world energy, June 2018. Retrieved from https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world energy.html.
• Canel, C., Güriş, S., Güriş, B., Öktem, B. and Öktem, R. (2017). Convergence of energy intensity in OECD Countries. Modern Economy, 8, 946-958. doi:10.4236/me.2017.87066
• Daly, H. (2007). Ecological economics and sustainable development. Selected Essays of Herman Daly. United Kingdom: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited.
• Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanlığı. (2019). Bilgi merkezi enerji-elektrik. Erişim adresi: https://www.enerji.gov.tr/trTR/Sayfalar/Elektrik
• Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanlığı. (2020). Enerji işleri genel müdürlüğü, denge tabloları (1970-2017). Erişim adresi: https://enerji.gov.tr/enerji-isleri-genel-mudurlugu-denge-tablolari
• Evans, P. and Karras, G. (1996). Convergence revisited. Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, 249-265. doi:10.1016/s0304-3932(96)90036-7
• Harris, J. M. (2000). Basic principles of sustainable development, global development and environment. (Institute Working Paper No. 00-04). Retrieved from http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae
• International Energy Agency. (2020). Energy security. Retrieved from https://www.iea.org/areas-of-work/ensuring-energy security
• Kruyt, B., Van Vuuren, D. P., Vries, H. J. M. and Groenenberg, H. (2009). Indicators for energy security. Energy Policy, 37(6), 2166-2181. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.02.006
• Lean, H. H. and Smyth, R. (2015). Conditional convergence in US disaggregated petroleum consumption at the sector level (Discussion Paper). Monash Business School. Department of Economics ISSN 1441-5429. Retrieved from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mos/moswps/2015-03.html.
• Lee, C. C. and Chang, C. P. (2007). The impact of energy consumption on economic growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear models in Taiwan. Energy, 32(12), 2282-2294. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2006.01.017
• Lee, C. Y. and Huh, S. Y. (2017). Forecasting new and renewable energy supply through a bottom-up approach: The case of South Korea. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 69, 207-217. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2016.11.173
• Lumsdaine, R. L. and Papell, D. H. (1997). Multiple trend breaks and the unit-root hypothesis. Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(2), 212-218. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/
• Maden ve Petrol İşleri Genel Müdürlüğü (MAPEG) (2018). 2017 yılı sonu itibarıyla Türkiye ham petrol rezervleri. Erişim adresi: www.pigm.gov.tr/index.php/istatistikler
• Markandya, A., Pedroso-Galinato, S. and Streimikiene, D. (2006). Energy intensity in transition economies: Is there convergence towards the EU average?. Energy Economics, 28(1), 121-145. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2005.10.005
• Martchamadol, J. and Kumar, S. (2013). An aggregated energy security performance indicator. Applied Energy, 103, 653-670. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.10.027
• Meng, M., Payne, J. E. and Lee, J. (2013). Convergence in per capita energy use among OECD countries. Energy Economics, 36, 536-545. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2012.11.002
• Mohammadi, H. and Ram, R. (2012). Cross-country convergence in energy and electricity consumption, 1971-2007. Energy Economics, 34(6), 1882-1887. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2012.08.001
• Mulder, P. and De Groot, H. L. (2012). Structural change and convergence of energy intensity across OECD countries, 1970-2005. Energy Economics, 34(6), 1910-1921. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2012.07.023
• Payne, J. E., Vizek, M. and Lee, J. (2017). Stochastic convergence in per capita fossil fuel consumption in U.S. States. Energy Economics, 62, 382-395. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2016.03.023
• Sebri, M. and Ben-Salha. O. (2014). On the causal dynamics between economic growth, renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions and trade openness: Fresh evidence from BRICS countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 39, 14-23. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2014.07.033
• Shaffer, B. (2006). Turkey’s energy policies in a tight global energy market. Insigt Turkey, 8(2), 97-104. Retrieved from https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/turkeys-energy-policies-tight-global-energy-market.
• Solarin, S. A. (2019). Parametric and non-parametric convergence analysis of electricity intensity in developed and developing Countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26, 8552-8557. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-04225-y
• Tong, H. (1978). On a threshold model. In Chen, C. H. (Ed.), Pattern Recognition and Signal Processing (pp. 575-586). The Netherlands: Sijthoff and Noordolf.
• Tong, H. and Lim, K. S. (1980). Threshold autoregression, limit cycles and cyclical data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 42(3), 245-292. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1980.tb01126.x
• Tong, H. (1983). Threshold models in nonlinear time series analysis. New York: Springer-Verlag.
• Tsay, R. S. (1989). Testing and modeling threshold autoregressive processes. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 84(405), 231-240. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/
• Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu. (2019). Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla, iktisadi faaliyet kollarına (A21) göre zincirlenmiş hacim, endeks ve değişim oranları, 1970-2017. Erişim adresi: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist
• Türkiye Petrolleri. (2018). 2017 yılı ham petrol ve doğal gaz sektör raporu. Türkiye Petrolleri Strateji Geliştirme Daire Başkanlığı. Mayıs 2018. Erişim adresi: https://www.tpao.gov.tr/file/2003/sektor-raporlari-2018-2735e5d18395d1ba.pdf
• Unbehaun, S.J. (2017). The relationship between renewable energy production and energy imports among countries in the Europe an Economic Area (Published master dissertation). Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University, Washington. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10822/1043944