Investigating Factors Influencing Inflation in the USA

Year 2023, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 128 - 142, 23.09.2023

Sevgi Coskun Yılmaz

https://doi.org/10.48064/equinox.1339198

Abstract

The determination of inflation has been extensively explored in economic literature and it remains an ongoing and developing field of study. Researchers have examined diverse econometric methodologies and analyzed data from varying time spans to identify the factors influencing inflation. In this research paper, we explore the factors influencing inflation in the USA by utilizing the monthly data from 2002 to 2020. To achieve our aim, we employ error correction model (ECM) and then granger causality method. The findings indicate that certain lagged changes in inflation, consumer price index (CPI) for fuel and utilities, CPI all city average and production price index play a significant role in accounting for the variations in inflation in the USA but the lagged changes in money supply are not a significant determinant in accounting for the fluctuations in inflation in the USA. Moreover, the results of causality analysis suggest that all factors have significant Granger causality on inflation, except money supply.

Keywords

Inflation, USA, ECM, Granger Causality

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