Telafi ve Etkinlik Hipotezi: Rals Eş-Bütünleşme ve Bootstrap Nedesenllik Testleri ile Türkiye İçin Yeni Kanıtlar

Year 2021, Volume: 35 Issue: 4, 1518 - 1533, 17.12.2021

Zerrin Kılıçarslan , Cüneyt Dumrul , Yasemin Dumrul

https://doi.org/10.48070/erciyesakademi.1013147

Abstract

Dışa açıklık ve küreselleşme ile birlikte ülkelerin karşılaştıkları risk ve belirsizlikler de artmaktadır. Kamu harcaması, söz konusu risklerin etkilerini en aza indirmek amacıyla kullanılan önemli politika araçlarından biridir. Dışa açıklık ve küreselleşmeye bağlı olarak ortaya çıkan kamu harcama artış ve azalışları literatürde telafi ve etkinlik hipotezleri çerçevesinde incelenmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de etkinlik ve telafi hipotezinin geçerliliği 1970-2018 dönemi yıllık verileri ile RALS eş-bütünleşme ve bootstrap nedensellik testleriyle incelenmiştir. Analiz sonuçları ticari açıklıktaki artışın kamu harcamalarını negatif etkilediğini ifade eden etkinlik hipotezini ve küreselleşmedeki artışın kamu harcamalarını artırdığını ifade eden telafi hipotezini desteklemektedir. Ayrıca bootstrap nedensellik testi sonucuna göre ticari açıklıktan kamu harcamalarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır.

Keywords

Hükümet büyüklüğü, Küreselleşme, Ticari açıklık, RALS Eş-bütünleşme testi, Bootstrap nedensellik testi

The Compensation and Efficiency Hypotheses: New Evidence for Turkey With Rals Cointegration and Bootstrap Causality Tests

Abstract

Along with openness and globalization, the risks and uncertainties faced by countries are also increasing. Government expenditures are one of the important policy tools used to minimize the effects of these risks. Increases and decreases in government expenditures due to openness and globalization are examined in the literature within the framework of compensation and efficiency hypotheses. In this study, the validity of Turkey's compensation and efficiency hypotheses was examined using annual data for the period 1970-2018 and RALS co-integration and bootstrap causality tests. In the analyzes, it is estimated whether both trade openness and globalization affect government expenditures. In the study, results have been reached to support the efficiency hypothesis, which states that the increase in trade openness negatively affects government expenditures. The compensation hypothesis states that the increase in globalization increases government expenditures. In addition, according to the results of the bootstrap causality test, it was found that there is a one-way causality relationship from trade openness to government expenditures.

Keywords

Globalization, Government size, Globalization, Trade openness, RALS co-integration test, Bootstrap causality test

References

• Alesina, A., & Wacziarg, R. (1998). Openness, country size and government. Journal of Public Economics, 69(3), 305-321.
• Altay, A., & Aysu, A. (2013). Etkinlik ve telafi edici etki hipotezi: Seçilmiş ülkeler üzerine ampirik bir inceleme. TISK Akademi, 8(15), 131-154.
• Anderson, E., & Obeng, S. (2021). Globalisation and government spending: Evidence for the 'hyper-globalisation' of the 1990s and 2000s. The World Economy, 44(5), 1144-1176.
• Aydogus, I., & Topcu, M. (2013). An investigation of co-integration and causality between trade openness and government size in Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(2), 319-323.
• Benarroch, M., & Pandey, M. (2008). Trade openness and government size. Economics Letters, 101(3), 157-159.
• Bergh, A. (2019). The compensation hypothes is revisited and reversed. IFN Working Paper, No. 1273, Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN), Stockholm.
• Cameron, D. R. (1978). The expansion of the public economy: A comparative analysis. American political science review, 72(04), 1243-1261.
• Cusack, T. (1997). Partisan politics and public finance: Changes in public spending in the industrialized democracies 1955-1989. Public Choice, 91(3-4), 375-395.
• Dreher, A., Sturm, J. E., & Ursprung, H. W. (2008). The impact of globalization on the composition of government expenditures: Evidence from panel data. Public Choice, 134(3-4), 263-292.
• Epifani, P., & Gancia, G. (2009). Openness, government size and the terms of trade. Review of Economic Studies, 76(2), 629-668.
• Garen, J., & Trask, K. (2005). Do more open economies have bigger governments? Another look. Journal of development economics, 77(2), 533-551.
• Garrett, G. (2001). Globalization and government spending around the world. Studies in Comparative International Development, 35(4), 3-29.
• Gastaldi, F., & Liberati, P. (2009). Economic integration and public policies: A review of the empirical literature. SIEP Working Paper 619.
• Gemmell, N., Kneller, R., & Sanz, I. (2008). Foreign investment, international trade and the size and structure of public expenditures. European Journal of Political Economy, 24(1), 151-171.
• Genç, M. C., & Telatar, O. M. (2015). Telafi hipotezi Türkiye için geçerli midir?. International Conference on Eurasian Economies, 437-444.
• Gözgör, G., Bilgin, M. H., & Zimmermann, K. F. (2019). Public employment decline in developing countries in the 21st century: The role of globalization. Economics Letters, 184, 108608.
• Hacker, S., & Hatemi, J. A. (2012). A bootstrap test for causality with endogenous lag length choice: Theory and application in Finance. Journal of Economic Studies,39(2), 144-160.
• Hatemi-J, A., & Uddin, G. S. (2014). On the causal nexus of remittances and poverty reduction in Bangladesh. Applied Economics, 46(4), 374-382.
• Hatemi-J, A. (2003). A new method to choose optimal lag order in stable and unstable VAR models. Applied Economics Letters, 10(3), 135-137.
• Hatemi-J, A. (2008). Forecasting properties of a new method to determine optimal lag order in stable and unstable VAR models. Applied Economics Letters, 15(4), 239-243.
• Im, K.S., Lee, J., & Tieslau M. A. (2014). More powerful unit root tests with non-normal errors. In R. C. Sickles&W. C. Horrace (Eds.), Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt (pp. 315-342). Springer.
• Im, K. S., & Schmidt, P. (2008). More efficient estimation under non-normality when higher moments do not depend on the regressors, using residual augmented least squares. Journal of Econometrics, 144(1), 219-233.
• Kim, D. H., Suen, Y. B., Lin, S. C., & Hsieh, J. (2018). Government size, government debt and globalization. Applied Economics, 50(25), 2792-2803.
• Kueh, J. S. H., Puah, C. H., & Wong, C. M. (2008). Bounds estimation for trade openness and government expenditure nexus of ASEAN-4 countries. MPRA Paper 12351, University Library of Munich, Germany.
• Lee, H., Lee J., & Im, K. (2015). More powerful co-integration tests with non-normal errors. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 19(4), 397-413.
• Liberati, P. (2007). Trade openness, capital openness and government size. Journal of Public Policy, 27(2), 215-247.
• Meinhard, S., & Potrafke, N. (2012). The globalization–welfare state nexus reconsidered. Review of International Economics, 20(2), 271-287.
• Özek, Y., & Bayat, T. (2020). BRICS ülkelerinde etkinlik ve telafi edici etki hipotezlerinin geçerliliğinin test edilmesi. Adıyaman Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 35, 719-741.
• Park, J. Y. (1992). Canonical cointegrating regressions. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 60(1), 119-143.
• Pata, U. K., & Süleyman Y. (2020). Telafi ve etkinlik hipotezlerinin RALS-EG eş-bütünleşme yaklaşımı ile testi: Türkiye örneği. Dicle Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 24, 82-95.
• Phillips, P. C. B., & Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I(1) Processes. Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99-125.
• Potrafke, N. (2009). Did globalization restrict partisan politics? An empirical evaluation of social expenditures in a panel of OECD countries. Public Choice, 140(1-2), 105-124.
• Rodrik, D. (1998), Why do more open economies have bigger governments?.Journal of Political Economy, 106(5), 997-1032.
• Sener, S., Bayrakdar, S., & Hacioglu, V. (2015). The analysis for the validity of compensation and efficiency hypotheses in Turkey between 1975 and 2013. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 195, 624-631.
• Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1993). A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 61(4), 783-820.
• Yılancı, V., & Aydın, M. (2018). The impact of female college enrollment on economic growth in Turkey: A RALS-EG co-integration test approach. UİİİD-IJEAS, Prof. Dr. Harun Terzi Special Issue, 101-112.
• Yıldız, Ü. (2019). Küreselleşme ile kamu büyüklüğü arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi: OECD Ülkeleri örneği. Mali Çözüm Dergisi / Financial Analysis, 29(155), 81-103.
• Zakaria, M., & Shakoor, S. (2011). Relationship between government size and trade openness: Evidence from Pakistan. Transition Studies Review, 18, 328-341.
• Zeren, F., & Ergün, S. (2013). Ticari açıklık ve kamu büyüklüğü ilişkisi: Panel nedensellik testi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 27(4), 229-240.