Does the Aging Population Become a Constraint to the Growth of Turkish Economy? New Evidence from Time Series Analysis

Eyyup Ecevit; Murat Çetin; Özge Yıldız; Rabia Doğan

doi:10.18070/erciyesiibd.871710

Research Article

Does the Aging Population Become a Constraint to the Growth of Turkish Economy? New Evidence from Time Series Analysis

Year 2021, Issue: 58, 367 - 398, 30.04.2021

Eyyup Ecevit , Murat Çetin , Özge Yıldız , Rabia Doğan

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.871710

Cited By: 3

Abstract

This study deals with the relationship between population aging and economic growth in Turkey during 1970-2018 and includes domestic savings, consumption expenditures, and financial development in the growth specification as additional variables. The Johansen and ARDL bounds test for cointegration analysis were used. Moreover, DOLS and CCR estimators were used to estimate the long-run coefficients. The VECM causality procedure was employed for causality analysis. The findings revealed that the variables are cointegrated. The findings showed that population aging, and financial development negatively affected economic growth while domestic savings and consumption expenditures were positively related to economic growth in the long-run. The findings also indicated that bidirectional causality exists between all the independent variables and economic growth in the long-run. Therefore, this study can provide several policy implications to speed economic growth in the Turkish economy.

Keywords

Population aging, economic growth, ARDL, causality test, Turkey

References

Acemoglu, D., and Restrepo, P. (2017). Secular stagnation? The effect of aging on economic growth in the age of automation. American Economic Review, 107(5), 174-79.
Adua, G., Marbuah, G. and Mensah, J.T. (2013). Financial development and economic growth in Ghana: Does the measure of financial development matter? Review of Development Finance, 3(4), 192-203. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rdf.2013.11.001.
Aghion, P., Comin, D., Howitt, P., and Tecu, I. (2009). When Does Saving Matter for Economic Growth? Harvard Business School Working Paper, 09-080.
Aksoy, Y., Basso, H. S., Smith, R., and Grasl, T. (2015). Demographic structure and macroeconomic trends. Madrid, Spain: Banko de Espana.
Bailey, M.J. (1971). National Income and the Price Level: A Study in Macroeconomic Theory. USA: Mc Graw-Hill: New York.
Bawazir, A.A.A., Aslam, M. and Bin Osman, A.F. (2020). Demographic change and economic growth: empirical evidence from the Middle East. Economic Change and Restructuring, 53, 429-450. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-019-09254-8 .
Bhargava, A. (1986). On the theory of testing for unit roots in observed time series. Review of Economic Studies, 52, 369-384.
Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Finlay, J. E. (2010). Population aging and economic growth in Asia. Takatoshi Ito and Andrew Rose (Eds.). In the economic consequences of demographic change in east Asia (pp. 61-89). Chicago, USA: University of Chicago Press.
Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Fink, G. (2011). Implications of population aging for economic growth. Harvard program and the global demography of aging working. 64, 2011.
Caceres, L.R. (1995). Foreign Resources, Domestic Savings and Economic Growth: The Case of Central America, Savings and Development, 19(4), 393-404. http://www.jstor.com/stable/25830555
Cetin, M., Ecevit, E., & Yucel, A. G. (2018). Structural breaks, urbanization and CO2 emissions: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research, 8(2), 122–139.
Cervellati, M., and Sunde, U. (2009). Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the demographic transition. Journal of economic growth, 16(2), 99-133.
Choudhry, M. T., and Elhorst, J. P. (2010). Demographic transition and economic growth in China, India, and Pakistan. Economic Systems, 34(3), 218-236.
Coile, C., Diamond, P., Gruber, J., and Jousten, A. (2002). Delays in claiming social security benefits. Journal of Public Economics, 84(3), 357-385.
Coulmas, F. (2007). Population decline and aging in Japan-the social consequences, USA, Canada: Routledge.
Devereux, M., & Smith, G. (1994). International risk-sharing and economic growth. International Economic Review, 35, 535-550.
Dritsakis, N. and Adamopoulos, A. (2004). A causal relationship between government spending and economic development: an empirical examination of the Greek economy. Applied Economics, 36, 457-464. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840410001682151.
Elliott, G., Rothenberg, T.J. and Stock, J.H. (1996). Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica, 6, 813-836.
Ecevit, E., Çetin, M., & Yücel, A. G. (2018). Türki Cumhuriyetlerinde sağlık harcamalarının belirleyicileri: Bir panel veri analizi. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 10(19), 318-334. https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.407522
Engle, RF Granger, CWJ (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 55, 251- 276
Eren, B.M., Taspinar, N. and Gokmenoglu, K.K. (2019). The impact of financial development and economic growth on renewable energy consumption: Empirical analysis of India. Science of the Total Environment, 663, 189-197.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.323
Fougère, M., and Mérette, M. (1999). Population aging and economic growth in seven OECD countries, Economic Modelling, 16(3), 411-427.
Günsoy, G., and Tekeli, S. (2015). Nüfusun Yaşlanması ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Analiz, Amme İdaresi Dergisi, 48(1).
Hajamini, M. and Falahi, M.A. (2014) The nonlinear impact of government consumption expenditure on economic growth: Evidence from low and low-middle income countries. Cogent Economics & Finance, 2,1-15. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2014.948122.
Heitger, B. (2001). The scope of government and its impact on economic growth in OECD Countries. Kiel Institute of World Economics.
Hsu, Y. H., and Lo, H. C. (2019). The Impacts of Population Aging on Saving, Capital Formation, and Economic Growth, American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 9(12), 2231.
Huang, W. H., Lin, Y. J., and Lee, H. F. (2019). Impact of Population and Workforce Aging on Economic Growth: Case Study of Taiwan, Sustainability, 11(22), 6301.
Ibrahim, M. and Alagidede, P. (2018). Effect of financial development on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Policy Modeling, 40, 1104-1125.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2018.08.001.
Ihori, T., Kato, R. R., Kawade, M., and Bessho, S. I. (2005). Public debt and economic growth in an aging Japan. In Tackling Japan’s Fiscal Challenges (pp. 30-68). Palgrave Macmillan, London.
Ismail, N. W., Abd Rahman, H. S. W. H., Hamid, T. A. T. A., and Said, R. (2016). Aging and Economic Growth: Empirical Analysis using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach. Sains Malaysiana, 45(9), 1345-1350.
Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of economic dynamics and control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
Johansen, S., and Juselius, K. (1994). Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model. Journal of Econometrics, 63(1), 7-36.
Joshi, A., Pradhan, S., and Bis, J.P. (2019). Savings, investment, and growth in Nepal: an empirical analysis. Financial Innovation, 5(39), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-019-0154-0. Kinugasa, T. and Mason, A. (2007). Why Countries Become Wealthy: The Effects of Adult Longevity on Saving. World Development, 35, 1-23.
Landau, D. (1983). Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Study. Southern Economic Journal, 49 (3), 783-792. http://www.jstor.com/stable/1058716.
Lee, H. H., and Shin, K. (2019). Nonlinear effects of population aging on economic growth. Japan and the World Economy, 51, 100963.
Lindh, T., and Mralmberg, B. (1999). Age structure effects and growth in the OECD, 1950–1990. Journal of Population Economics, 12(3), 431-449.
Maestas, N., Mullen, K. J., and Powell, D. (2016). The effect of population aging on economic growth, the labor force, and productivity. National Bureau of Economic Research. (22452).
Mehmood, B. and Shahid, A. (2014). Aviation Demand and economic growth in the Czech Republic: Cointegration Estimation and Causality Analysis. Statistika, 94(1), 54-63.
Mitic, P., Ivanovic, O.M. and Zdravkovic, A. (2014). A Cointegration Analysis of Real GDP and CO2Emissions in Transitional Countries. Sustainability, 9(568), 1-18.
Narayan, S., Rath, B.N. and Narayan, P.K. (2012). Evidence of Wagner's law from Indian states. Economic Modelling, 29, 1548-1557. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.05.004.
Narayan, P.K. and Narayan, S. (2013). The short-run relationship between the financial system and economic growth: New evidence from regional panels. International Review of Financial Analysis, 29, 70-78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2013.03.012.
Ng, S., and Perron, P. (2001). Lag length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power. Econometrica, 69(6), 1519-1554.
Odhiambo, N.M. (2009). Savings and economic growth in South Africa: A multivariate causality test. Journal of Policy Modeling, 31, 708-718. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2009.04.001.
Ohlan, R. (2017). The relationship between tourism, financial development, and economic growth in India. Future Business Journal, 3, 9-22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fbj.2017.01.003.
Ono, S. (2017). Financial development and economic growth nexus in Russia. Russian Journal of Economics, 3, 321-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.006.
Park, D., & Shin, K. (2012). Impact of population aging on Asia's future growth. In Aging, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Security in Asia. Mandaluyong, Philippines: Edward Elgar Publishing.
Patra, S.S., Murthy, D.S., Kuruva, M.B. and Mohanty, A. (2017). Revisiting the causal nexus between savings and economic growth in India: An empirical analysis. Economia, 18, 380-391. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econ.2017.05.001.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
Philips, B., and Perron, P. (1988). Mean Reversion in Stock Prices. Journal of Financial Economics, 22, 27-59.
Prskawetz, A., Kögel, T., Sanderson., WC and Scherbov, S. (2007). The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India. International Journal of Forecasting, 23(4), 587-602.
Romm, A.T. (2005). The relationship between saving and growth in South Africa: A time series analysis. South African Journal of Economics, 73(2), 171-189.
Shahbaz, M., Afza, T., Shabbir, S. M. (2011). Does defense spending impede economic growth? cointegration and causality analysis for Pakistan. MPRA Paper. 30887.
Shaw, E.S. (1973). Financial Deepening in Economic Development, New York, USA : Oxford University Press.
Stock, J. H., and Watson, M. W. (1993). A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 783-820.
Tang, C.F. and Tan, B.W. (2014). A revalidation of the savings-growth nexus in Pakistan. Economic Modelling, 36, 370-377. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.10.012.
Turkish Statistical Institute. (2019). Workforce indicator. Access address:http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/Start.do,
Uddin, G.A., Alam, K. and Gow, J. (2016). Population age structure and savings rate impacts oneconomic growth: Evidence from Australia.Economic Analysis and Policy, 52, 23-33.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2016.08.002.
World Bank. (2020), World Development Indicators Database. Access address: https://data.worldbank.org.
World Health Organization. (2020). Under-five mortality. Access address:www.who.int/gho/child_health/mortality/mortality_under_five_text/en/.
Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2009). Re-examining the financial development and economic growth nexus in Kenya. Economic Modelling, 26, 1140-1146. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2009.05.002.
Zhao, Y., Xu, X., Zhang, X., and Xia, S. (2018). Identifying the impacts of social, economic, and environmental factors on population aging in the Yangtze River Delta using the geographical detector technique. Sustainability, 10(5), 1528.

Yaşlanan Nüfus Türkiye Ekonomisinin Büyümesine Engel Oluyor Mu? Zaman Serisi Analizinden Yeni Kanıtlar

Year 2021, Issue: 58, 367 - 398, 30.04.2021

Eyyup Ecevit , Murat Çetin , Özge Yıldız , Rabia Doğan

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.871710

Cited By: 3

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de 1970-2018 döneminde nüfusun yaşlanması ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi ele almakta ve ek değişkenler olarak büyüme spesifikasyonunda yurt içi tasarrufları, tüketim harcamalarını ve finansal gelişmeyi içermektedir. Eşbütünleşme analizi için Johansen ve ARDL sınır testi kullanıldı. Ayrıca, uzun dönem katsayılarını tahmin etmek için DOLS ve CCR tahmin edicileri kullanıldı. Nedensellik analizi için VECM nedensellik prosedürüne başvuruldu. Bulgular, değişkenlerin eşbütünleşik olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Sonuçlar, nüfusun yaşlanması ve finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz etkilediğini, yurtiçi tasarrufların ve tüketim harcamalarının ise uzun vadede ekonomik büyümeyle pozitif yönde ilişkili olduğunu göstermiştir. Ayrıca, uzun vadede tüm bağımsız değişkenler ve ekonomik büyüme arasında çift yönlü nedenselliğin var olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu nedenle, bu çalışma Türkiye ekonomisinde ekonomik büyümeyi hızlandırmada çeşitli politika uygulamaları sağlayabilir.

Keywords

Nüfus yaşlanması, ekonomik büyüme, ARDL, nedensellik testi, Türkiye

References

Acemoglu, D., and Restrepo, P. (2017). Secular stagnation? The effect of aging on economic growth in the age of automation. American Economic Review, 107(5), 174-79.
Adua, G., Marbuah, G. and Mensah, J.T. (2013). Financial development and economic growth in Ghana: Does the measure of financial development matter? Review of Development Finance, 3(4), 192-203. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rdf.2013.11.001.
Aghion, P., Comin, D., Howitt, P., and Tecu, I. (2009). When Does Saving Matter for Economic Growth? Harvard Business School Working Paper, 09-080.
Aksoy, Y., Basso, H. S., Smith, R., and Grasl, T. (2015). Demographic structure and macroeconomic trends. Madrid, Spain: Banko de Espana.
Bailey, M.J. (1971). National Income and the Price Level: A Study in Macroeconomic Theory. USA: Mc Graw-Hill: New York.
Bawazir, A.A.A., Aslam, M. and Bin Osman, A.F. (2020). Demographic change and economic growth: empirical evidence from the Middle East. Economic Change and Restructuring, 53, 429-450. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-019-09254-8 .
Bhargava, A. (1986). On the theory of testing for unit roots in observed time series. Review of Economic Studies, 52, 369-384.
Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Finlay, J. E. (2010). Population aging and economic growth in Asia. Takatoshi Ito and Andrew Rose (Eds.). In the economic consequences of demographic change in east Asia (pp. 61-89). Chicago, USA: University of Chicago Press.
Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Fink, G. (2011). Implications of population aging for economic growth. Harvard program and the global demography of aging working. 64, 2011.
Caceres, L.R. (1995). Foreign Resources, Domestic Savings and Economic Growth: The Case of Central America, Savings and Development, 19(4), 393-404. http://www.jstor.com/stable/25830555
Cetin, M., Ecevit, E., & Yucel, A. G. (2018). Structural breaks, urbanization and CO2 emissions: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research, 8(2), 122–139.
Cervellati, M., and Sunde, U. (2009). Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the demographic transition. Journal of economic growth, 16(2), 99-133.
Choudhry, M. T., and Elhorst, J. P. (2010). Demographic transition and economic growth in China, India, and Pakistan. Economic Systems, 34(3), 218-236.
Coile, C., Diamond, P., Gruber, J., and Jousten, A. (2002). Delays in claiming social security benefits. Journal of Public Economics, 84(3), 357-385.
Coulmas, F. (2007). Population decline and aging in Japan-the social consequences, USA, Canada: Routledge.
Devereux, M., & Smith, G. (1994). International risk-sharing and economic growth. International Economic Review, 35, 535-550.
Dritsakis, N. and Adamopoulos, A. (2004). A causal relationship between government spending and economic development: an empirical examination of the Greek economy. Applied Economics, 36, 457-464. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840410001682151.
Elliott, G., Rothenberg, T.J. and Stock, J.H. (1996). Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica, 6, 813-836.
Ecevit, E., Çetin, M., & Yücel, A. G. (2018). Türki Cumhuriyetlerinde sağlık harcamalarının belirleyicileri: Bir panel veri analizi. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 10(19), 318-334. https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.407522
Engle, RF Granger, CWJ (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 55, 251- 276
Eren, B.M., Taspinar, N. and Gokmenoglu, K.K. (2019). The impact of financial development and economic growth on renewable energy consumption: Empirical analysis of India. Science of the Total Environment, 663, 189-197.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.323
Fougère, M., and Mérette, M. (1999). Population aging and economic growth in seven OECD countries, Economic Modelling, 16(3), 411-427.
Günsoy, G., and Tekeli, S. (2015). Nüfusun Yaşlanması ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Analiz, Amme İdaresi Dergisi, 48(1).
Hajamini, M. and Falahi, M.A. (2014) The nonlinear impact of government consumption expenditure on economic growth: Evidence from low and low-middle income countries. Cogent Economics & Finance, 2,1-15. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2014.948122.
Heitger, B. (2001). The scope of government and its impact on economic growth in OECD Countries. Kiel Institute of World Economics.
Hsu, Y. H., and Lo, H. C. (2019). The Impacts of Population Aging on Saving, Capital Formation, and Economic Growth, American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 9(12), 2231.
Huang, W. H., Lin, Y. J., and Lee, H. F. (2019). Impact of Population and Workforce Aging on Economic Growth: Case Study of Taiwan, Sustainability, 11(22), 6301.
Ibrahim, M. and Alagidede, P. (2018). Effect of financial development on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Policy Modeling, 40, 1104-1125.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2018.08.001.
Ihori, T., Kato, R. R., Kawade, M., and Bessho, S. I. (2005). Public debt and economic growth in an aging Japan. In Tackling Japan’s Fiscal Challenges (pp. 30-68). Palgrave Macmillan, London.
Ismail, N. W., Abd Rahman, H. S. W. H., Hamid, T. A. T. A., and Said, R. (2016). Aging and Economic Growth: Empirical Analysis using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach. Sains Malaysiana, 45(9), 1345-1350.
Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of economic dynamics and control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
Johansen, S., and Juselius, K. (1994). Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model. Journal of Econometrics, 63(1), 7-36.
Joshi, A., Pradhan, S., and Bis, J.P. (2019). Savings, investment, and growth in Nepal: an empirical analysis. Financial Innovation, 5(39), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-019-0154-0. Kinugasa, T. and Mason, A. (2007). Why Countries Become Wealthy: The Effects of Adult Longevity on Saving. World Development, 35, 1-23.
Landau, D. (1983). Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Study. Southern Economic Journal, 49 (3), 783-792. http://www.jstor.com/stable/1058716.
Lee, H. H., and Shin, K. (2019). Nonlinear effects of population aging on economic growth. Japan and the World Economy, 51, 100963.
Lindh, T., and Mralmberg, B. (1999). Age structure effects and growth in the OECD, 1950–1990. Journal of Population Economics, 12(3), 431-449.
Maestas, N., Mullen, K. J., and Powell, D. (2016). The effect of population aging on economic growth, the labor force, and productivity. National Bureau of Economic Research. (22452).
Mehmood, B. and Shahid, A. (2014). Aviation Demand and economic growth in the Czech Republic: Cointegration Estimation and Causality Analysis. Statistika, 94(1), 54-63.
Mitic, P., Ivanovic, O.M. and Zdravkovic, A. (2014). A Cointegration Analysis of Real GDP and CO2Emissions in Transitional Countries. Sustainability, 9(568), 1-18.
Narayan, S., Rath, B.N. and Narayan, P.K. (2012). Evidence of Wagner's law from Indian states. Economic Modelling, 29, 1548-1557. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.05.004.
Narayan, P.K. and Narayan, S. (2013). The short-run relationship between the financial system and economic growth: New evidence from regional panels. International Review of Financial Analysis, 29, 70-78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2013.03.012.
Ng, S., and Perron, P. (2001). Lag length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power. Econometrica, 69(6), 1519-1554.
Odhiambo, N.M. (2009). Savings and economic growth in South Africa: A multivariate causality test. Journal of Policy Modeling, 31, 708-718. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2009.04.001.
Ohlan, R. (2017). The relationship between tourism, financial development, and economic growth in India. Future Business Journal, 3, 9-22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fbj.2017.01.003.
Ono, S. (2017). Financial development and economic growth nexus in Russia. Russian Journal of Economics, 3, 321-332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.006.
Park, D., & Shin, K. (2012). Impact of population aging on Asia's future growth. In Aging, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Security in Asia. Mandaluyong, Philippines: Edward Elgar Publishing.
Patra, S.S., Murthy, D.S., Kuruva, M.B. and Mohanty, A. (2017). Revisiting the causal nexus between savings and economic growth in India: An empirical analysis. Economia, 18, 380-391. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econ.2017.05.001.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
Philips, B., and Perron, P. (1988). Mean Reversion in Stock Prices. Journal of Financial Economics, 22, 27-59.
Prskawetz, A., Kögel, T., Sanderson., WC and Scherbov, S. (2007). The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India. International Journal of Forecasting, 23(4), 587-602.
Romm, A.T. (2005). The relationship between saving and growth in South Africa: A time series analysis. South African Journal of Economics, 73(2), 171-189.
Shahbaz, M., Afza, T., Shabbir, S. M. (2011). Does defense spending impede economic growth? cointegration and causality analysis for Pakistan. MPRA Paper. 30887.
Shaw, E.S. (1973). Financial Deepening in Economic Development, New York, USA : Oxford University Press.
Stock, J. H., and Watson, M. W. (1993). A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 783-820.
Tang, C.F. and Tan, B.W. (2014). A revalidation of the savings-growth nexus in Pakistan. Economic Modelling, 36, 370-377. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.10.012.
Turkish Statistical Institute. (2019). Workforce indicator. Access address:http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/Start.do,
Uddin, G.A., Alam, K. and Gow, J. (2016). Population age structure and savings rate impacts oneconomic growth: Evidence from Australia.Economic Analysis and Policy, 52, 23-33.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2016.08.002.
World Bank. (2020), World Development Indicators Database. Access address: https://data.worldbank.org.
World Health Organization. (2020). Under-five mortality. Access address:www.who.int/gho/child_health/mortality/mortality_under_five_text/en/.
Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2009). Re-examining the financial development and economic growth nexus in Kenya. Economic Modelling, 26, 1140-1146. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2009.05.002.
Zhao, Y., Xu, X., Zhang, X., and Xia, S. (2018). Identifying the impacts of social, economic, and environmental factors on population aging in the Yangtze River Delta using the geographical detector technique. Sustainability, 10(5), 1528.

There are 61 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language	English
Journal Section	Makaleler
Authors	Eyyup Ecevit 0000-0002-2417-4043 Murat Çetin 0000-0002-7886-4162 Özge Yıldız 0000-0002-3458-0053 Rabia Doğan 0000-0002-1450-8855
Publication Date	April 30, 2021
Acceptance Date	March 17, 2021
Published in Issue	Year 2021 Issue: 58

Cite

APA	Ecevit, E., Çetin, M., Yıldız, Ö., Doğan, R. (2021). Does the Aging Population Become a Constraint to the Growth of Turkish Economy? New Evidence from Time Series Analysis. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(58), 367-398. https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.871710

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Ethical Principles and Ethical Guidelines

The Journal of Erciyes University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences places great emphasis on publication ethics, which serve as a foundation for the impartial and reputable advancement of scientific knowledge. In this context, the journal adopts a publishing approach aligned with the ethical standards set by the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) and is committed to preventing potential malpractice. The following ethical responsibilities, established based on COPE’s principles, are expected to be upheld by all stakeholders involved in the publication process (authors, readers and researchers, publishers, reviewers, and editors).

Ethical Responsibilities of Editors
Make decisions on submissions based on the quality and originality of the work, its alignment with the journal's aims and scope, and the reviewers’ evaluations, regardless of the authors' religion, language, race, ethnicity, political views, or gender.
Respond to information requests from readers, authors, and reviewers regarding the publication and evaluation processes.
Conduct all processes without compromising ethical standards and intellectual property rights.
Support freedom of thought and protect human and animal rights.
Ensure the peer review process adheres to the principle of double-blind peer review.
Take full responsibility for accepting, rejecting, or requesting changes to a manuscript and ensure that conflicts of interest among stakeholders do not influence these decisions.
Ethical Responsibilities of Authors
Submitted works must be original. When utilizing other works, proper and complete citations and/or references must be provided.
A manuscript must not be under review by another journal simultaneously.
Individuals who have not contributed to the experimental design, implementation, data analysis, or interpretation should not be listed as authors.
If requested during the review process, datasets used in the manuscript must be provided to the editorial board.
If a significant error or mistake is discovered in the manuscript, the journal’s editorial office must be notified.
For studies requiring ethical committee approval, the relevant document must be submitted to the journal. Details regarding the ethical approval (name of the ethics committee, approval document number, and date) must be included in the manuscript.
Changes to authorship (e.g., adding or removing authors, altering the order of authors) cannot be proposed after the review process has commenced.
Ethical Responsibilities of Reviewers
Accept review assignments only in areas where they have sufficient expertise.
Agree to review manuscripts in a timely and unbiased manner.
Ensure confidentiality of the reviewed manuscript and not disclose any information about it, during or after the review process, beyond what is already published.
Refrain from using information obtained during the review process for personal or third-party benefit.
Notify the journal editor if plagiarism or other ethical violations are suspected in the manuscript.
Conduct reviews objectively and avoid conflicts of interest. If a conflict exists, the reviewer should decline the review.
Use polite and constructive language during the review process and avoid personal comments.
Publication Policy
The Journal of Erciyes University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences is a free, open-access, peer-reviewed academic journal that has been in publication since 1981. The journal welcomes submissions in Turkish and English within the fields of economics, business administration, public finance, political science, public administration, and international relations.

No submission or publication fees are charged by the journal.
Every submitted manuscript undergoes a double-blind peer review process and similarity/plagiarism checks via iThenticate.
Submissions must be original and not previously published, accepted for publication, or under review elsewhere.
Articles published in the journal can be cited under the Open Access Policy and Creative Commons license, provided proper attribution is given.
The journal is published three times a year, in April, August, and December. It includes original, high-quality, and scientifically supported research articles and reviews in its listed fields. Academic studies unrelated to these disciplines or their theoretical and empirical foundations are not accepted. The journal's languages are Turkish and English.

Submissions are first subject to a preliminary review for format and content. Manuscripts not meeting the journal's standards are rejected by the editorial board. Manuscripts deemed suitable proceed to the peer review stage.

Each submission is sent to at least two expert reviewers. If both reviews are favorable, the article is approved for publication. In cases where one review is positive and the other negative, the editorial board decides based on the reviews or may send the manuscript to a third reviewer.

Articles published in the journal are open access and can be cited under the Creative Commons license, provided proper attribution is made.