DIVERSIFICATION OF EXPORTS IN TERMS OF SECTOR-COUNTRY AND FACTORS AFFECTING EXPORTS: AN IMPLEMENTATION UPON TURKEY
Abstract
The aim of this study is to ascertain diversification Turkey's sectoral exports' on a country
basis and the main factors affecting the sectoral exports. In accordance with this purpose, it was used
the Entropy Index for the diversification of Turkey's sectoral exports' on a country basis, the Poisson
Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method for determine the main factors affecting sectoral
exports. Total export data of covers the 2010-2019 period in 10 sector classified in SITC Rev4 Digit 1
and the GDP of Turkey and importer countries, the distance of importing countries from Turkey,
Turkey's real exchange rate index annual panel data were used in the study. According to the
diversification analysis, it was determined that there has been country diversification in 8 out of 10
sectors exported in recent years. It was also concluded that as the average export range increases, the
average export diversity index also increases. As a result of PPML analysis, Turkey's sectoral exports
are sensitive export partner's GDP and to the distance between countries, and that the effect of the real
exchange rate index and Turkey's GDP varies on a sectoral basis.
References
- Arize, A. C., Malindretos, J. ve Kasibhatla K. H. (2003). Does exchange-rate volatility depress export flows: The case of LDCs. International Advances in Economic Research, 7-20.
- Ateş, E. ve Seymen, D. A. (2019). türkiye’nin imzaladığı serbest ticaret anlaşmaları: İki yanlı sektörel bir analiz ve dış ticaret politikası açısından bir değerlendirme. Sosyoekonomi, 27(42), 255-282
- Allen, F. ve Carletti, E. (2010). An overview of the crisis: causes, consequences, and solutions. International Review of Finance, 10(1), 1-26.
- Amurgo-Pacheco, A. ve Pierola, M. D. (2007). Patterns of export diversification in developing sountries: Intensive and extensive margins. Policy Research Working Paper, 4473, 1–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jss.2009.03.020
- Bernard, A. B., Bradford Jensen, J., Redding, S. J. ve Schott, P. K. (2007). Firms in international trade. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(3), 105–130. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.21.3.105
- Bernard, A. B. ve Jensen, J. B. (2004). Why some firms export. Review of Economics and Statistics, 86(2), 561–569. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465304323031111
- Çınar, Y. ve Göksel, T. (2010). İhracatta bölgesel çeşitlendirme ve istikrar. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 66(2), 30-58.
- Dalgıç, B. ve Fazlıoğlu, B. (2015). Dış ticarette ürün/ülke çeşitliliği ve firma performansı: Türkiye Örneği. Sosyoekonomi, 23(26), 7–23. https://doi.org/10.17233/se.31913
- Dogruel, A. S. ve Tekce, M. (2011). Trade liberalization and export diversification in selected MENA countries. Topics in Middle Eastern and African Economies, 1–24.
- Doğan, S. ve Soyyiğit Kaya, S. (2011). Gümrük birliği sonrasinda (1996-2009) türkiye’nin avrupa birliği ı̇le dış ticaretinin ülke ve fasil bazli yoğunlaşma analizi. Ekonometri ve İstatistik E-Dergisi, (14), 1-18.
- Doğanlar, M. (2002). Estimating the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports: evidence from Asian countries. Applied Economics Letters, 9(13), 859-863. DOI: 10.1080/13504850210150906
- Gamberoni, E. (2007). Do unilateral trade preferences help export diversification? HEI Working Paper, (17), 1-27.
- Gül, H. ve Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2019). Turizm talebinin panel çekim modeli ile analizi. Turizm Akademik Dergisi, 6 (1), 49-60.
- Hesse, H. (2009). Export diversification and economic growth. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 55.
- Jacquemin, A. P. ve Berry C. H. (1979). Entropy measure of diversification and corporate growth. The Journal of Industrial Economics, 27(4), 359-369.
- Kaplan, F. ve Aktas, A.R. (2016). The Turkey tourism demand: A gravity model. The Empirical Economics Letters, 15 (3), 265-272.
- Kaplan, F. ve Bolkan, E. (2020). Teknoloji yoğun malların sektörel ihracatı: Türkiye örneği. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 34(3): 1001-1020, DOI: 10.16951/atauniiibd.713014
- Kaplan, F. ve Güngör, Ş. (2017). Türkiye’nin Avrupa Birliğine’ne sektörel ihracatına döviz kurunun etkisi: Panel veri analizi. Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 9(1), 33-48.
- Kılıç, E. ve Yıldırım, K. (2015). Sektörel reel döviz kuru volatilitesinin Türk imalat sanayi ihracatı üzerine etkileri. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 15(1), 13-26.
- Kösekahyaoglu, L. (2007). Türkiye dış ticaretinde Ürün ve ülke bazında yoğunlaşma: 1980-2005 dönemi üzerine karşılaştırmalı bir analiz. I.Ü. Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, (36), 15-34.
- Matthee, M. ve Naudé, W. (2007). Export diversity and regional growth. WIDER Research Paper, (11), 1-20.
- Mayer, T., Melitz, M. J. ve Ottaviano, G. I. P. (2014). Market size, competition, and the product mix of exporters. American Economic Review, 104(2), 495–536. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.2.495
- Mohan, R. (2009). Global financial crisis – causes, impact, policy responses and lessons. 7th Annual India Business Forum Conference, London Business School, London. https://www.bis.org/review/r090506d.pdf?frames=0
- Nazlıoğlu, S. (2013). Exchange rate volatility and Turkish industry-level export: Panel cointegration analysis. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 22(7), 1088-1107, DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2012.660978
- Özdamar, G. ve Yıldız, H. (2014). Reel döviz kuru - dış ticaret ilişkisi: türkiye imalat sanayisi sektörleri üzerine bir inceleme (2005-2012). Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 5(2), 187-204.
- Özkul, G. ve Öztürk, A . (2019). Yapısal kırılmalar eşliğinde döviz kuru oynaklığı ile türkiye’nin sektörel dış ticareti arasındaki etkileşim. Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 19 (4), 1069-1095. DOI: 10.11616/basbed.v19i51339.620048
- Serenis, D. ve Tsounis, N. (2014). Exchange rate volatility and aggregate exports: evidence from two small countries. ISRN Economics, 1-10.
- Silva, L. M. C. S. ve Tenreyno S. (2006). The log of gravity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(4), 641-658.,
- Sweidan, O. D. (2013). The effect of exchange rate on exports and imports: The case of Jordan. The International Trade Journal, 27(2), 156-172. DOI: 10.1080/08853908.2013.738515.
- Taylor, G. T. ve Francis, B. (2003). Agricultural export diversification in Latin America and The Caribbean. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, (35), 77-87.
- Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası. (2020). Reel efektif döviz kuru. https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TR/TCMB+TR/Main+Menu/Istatistikler/Doviz+Kurlari/Reel+Efektif+Doviz+Kuruu/ adresinden erişildi.
- Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu. (2020). Dış ticaret istatistikleri. https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/disticaretapp/menu.zul adresinden erişildi.
- Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu. (2020). Yıllara göre dış ticaret. http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist adresinden erişildi.
- World Bank. (2020). Gdp (current $). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD adresinden erişildi.
- Xin, X. ve Liu, J. (2008). Geographic concentration and China’s agricultural export instability. The World Economy, 275-285.
SEKTÖR-ÜLKE AÇISINDAN İHRACAT ÇEŞİTLENDİRMESİ VE İHRACATI ETKİLEYEN FAKTÖRLER: TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE BİR UYGULAMA
Abstract
Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’nin sektörel ihracatının ülke bazında çeşitlendirmesi ve
sektörel ihracatını etkileyen temel faktörlerin tespit edilmesidir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda Türkiye’nin
sektörel ihracatının ülke bazında çeşitlendirmesinde Entropi Endeksi, sektörel ihracatını etkileyen
temel faktörlerin belirlenmesinde Poisson Pseudo Maksimum Olabilirlik (PPML) yöntemi
kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada 2010-2019 dönemine ait SITC Rev4 haneli düzey 1'de sınıflandırılan 10
sektörü kapsayan toplam ihracat verileri, Türkiye ve ithalatçı ülkelerin Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasılası
(GSYİH), ithalatçı ülkelerin Türkiye'den uzaklıkları, Türkiye'nin reel döviz kuru endeksi yıllık panel
verileri kullanılmıştır. Yapılan çeşitlendirme analizine göre son yıllarda ihracat yapılan 10 sektörün
8’inde ülke çeşitlendirmesi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca ortalama ihracat menzili arttıkça, ortalama
ihracat çeşitlilik endeksinin de arttığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. PPML analizi sonucunda ise Türkiye’nin
sektörel ihracatının, ihracat partneri olan ülkenin GSYİH ile ülkeler arası uzaklığa duyarlı olduğu,
reel döviz kur endeksi ile Türkiye’nin GSYİH’nin etkisinin sektörel bazda değiştiği sonucuna
ulaşılmıştır
References
- Arize, A. C., Malindretos, J. ve Kasibhatla K. H. (2003). Does exchange-rate volatility depress export flows: The case of LDCs. International Advances in Economic Research, 7-20.
- Ateş, E. ve Seymen, D. A. (2019). türkiye’nin imzaladığı serbest ticaret anlaşmaları: İki yanlı sektörel bir analiz ve dış ticaret politikası açısından bir değerlendirme. Sosyoekonomi, 27(42), 255-282
- Allen, F. ve Carletti, E. (2010). An overview of the crisis: causes, consequences, and solutions. International Review of Finance, 10(1), 1-26.
- Amurgo-Pacheco, A. ve Pierola, M. D. (2007). Patterns of export diversification in developing sountries: Intensive and extensive margins. Policy Research Working Paper, 4473, 1–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jss.2009.03.020
- Bernard, A. B., Bradford Jensen, J., Redding, S. J. ve Schott, P. K. (2007). Firms in international trade. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(3), 105–130. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.21.3.105
- Bernard, A. B. ve Jensen, J. B. (2004). Why some firms export. Review of Economics and Statistics, 86(2), 561–569. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465304323031111
- Çınar, Y. ve Göksel, T. (2010). İhracatta bölgesel çeşitlendirme ve istikrar. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 66(2), 30-58.
- Dalgıç, B. ve Fazlıoğlu, B. (2015). Dış ticarette ürün/ülke çeşitliliği ve firma performansı: Türkiye Örneği. Sosyoekonomi, 23(26), 7–23. https://doi.org/10.17233/se.31913
- Dogruel, A. S. ve Tekce, M. (2011). Trade liberalization and export diversification in selected MENA countries. Topics in Middle Eastern and African Economies, 1–24.
- Doğan, S. ve Soyyiğit Kaya, S. (2011). Gümrük birliği sonrasinda (1996-2009) türkiye’nin avrupa birliği ı̇le dış ticaretinin ülke ve fasil bazli yoğunlaşma analizi. Ekonometri ve İstatistik E-Dergisi, (14), 1-18.
- Doğanlar, M. (2002). Estimating the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports: evidence from Asian countries. Applied Economics Letters, 9(13), 859-863. DOI: 10.1080/13504850210150906
- Gamberoni, E. (2007). Do unilateral trade preferences help export diversification? HEI Working Paper, (17), 1-27.
- Gül, H. ve Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2019). Turizm talebinin panel çekim modeli ile analizi. Turizm Akademik Dergisi, 6 (1), 49-60.
- Hesse, H. (2009). Export diversification and economic growth. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 55.
- Jacquemin, A. P. ve Berry C. H. (1979). Entropy measure of diversification and corporate growth. The Journal of Industrial Economics, 27(4), 359-369.
- Kaplan, F. ve Aktas, A.R. (2016). The Turkey tourism demand: A gravity model. The Empirical Economics Letters, 15 (3), 265-272.
- Kaplan, F. ve Bolkan, E. (2020). Teknoloji yoğun malların sektörel ihracatı: Türkiye örneği. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 34(3): 1001-1020, DOI: 10.16951/atauniiibd.713014
- Kaplan, F. ve Güngör, Ş. (2017). Türkiye’nin Avrupa Birliğine’ne sektörel ihracatına döviz kurunun etkisi: Panel veri analizi. Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 9(1), 33-48.
- Kılıç, E. ve Yıldırım, K. (2015). Sektörel reel döviz kuru volatilitesinin Türk imalat sanayi ihracatı üzerine etkileri. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 15(1), 13-26.
- Kösekahyaoglu, L. (2007). Türkiye dış ticaretinde Ürün ve ülke bazında yoğunlaşma: 1980-2005 dönemi üzerine karşılaştırmalı bir analiz. I.Ü. Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, (36), 15-34.
- Matthee, M. ve Naudé, W. (2007). Export diversity and regional growth. WIDER Research Paper, (11), 1-20.
- Mayer, T., Melitz, M. J. ve Ottaviano, G. I. P. (2014). Market size, competition, and the product mix of exporters. American Economic Review, 104(2), 495–536. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.2.495
- Mohan, R. (2009). Global financial crisis – causes, impact, policy responses and lessons. 7th Annual India Business Forum Conference, London Business School, London. https://www.bis.org/review/r090506d.pdf?frames=0
- Nazlıoğlu, S. (2013). Exchange rate volatility and Turkish industry-level export: Panel cointegration analysis. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 22(7), 1088-1107, DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2012.660978
- Özdamar, G. ve Yıldız, H. (2014). Reel döviz kuru - dış ticaret ilişkisi: türkiye imalat sanayisi sektörleri üzerine bir inceleme (2005-2012). Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 5(2), 187-204.
- Özkul, G. ve Öztürk, A . (2019). Yapısal kırılmalar eşliğinde döviz kuru oynaklığı ile türkiye’nin sektörel dış ticareti arasındaki etkileşim. Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 19 (4), 1069-1095. DOI: 10.11616/basbed.v19i51339.620048
- Serenis, D. ve Tsounis, N. (2014). Exchange rate volatility and aggregate exports: evidence from two small countries. ISRN Economics, 1-10.
- Silva, L. M. C. S. ve Tenreyno S. (2006). The log of gravity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(4), 641-658.,
- Sweidan, O. D. (2013). The effect of exchange rate on exports and imports: The case of Jordan. The International Trade Journal, 27(2), 156-172. DOI: 10.1080/08853908.2013.738515.
- Taylor, G. T. ve Francis, B. (2003). Agricultural export diversification in Latin America and The Caribbean. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, (35), 77-87.
- Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası. (2020). Reel efektif döviz kuru. https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TR/TCMB+TR/Main+Menu/Istatistikler/Doviz+Kurlari/Reel+Efektif+Doviz+Kuruu/ adresinden erişildi.
- Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu. (2020). Dış ticaret istatistikleri. https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/disticaretapp/menu.zul adresinden erişildi.
- Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu. (2020). Yıllara göre dış ticaret. http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist adresinden erişildi.
- World Bank. (2020). Gdp (current $). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD adresinden erişildi.
- Xin, X. ve Liu, J. (2008). Geographic concentration and China’s agricultural export instability. The World Economy, 275-285.
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Makaleler |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | August 31, 2021 |
| Acceptance Date | March 5, 2021 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2021 Issue: 59 |
Cited By
Asymmetric Effects of Real Exchange Rate on Turkey's Imports: Threshold Value Regression Model
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https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1504315
İHRACATÇI FİRMALARIN COVİD-19 SALGINI SONRASI DIŞ PAZAR STRATEJİLERİ ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME
Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi
https://doi.org/10.35379/cusosbil.1166960
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