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GELEN TURİST SAYISININ EN FAZLA OLDUĞU 10 ÜLKEDE TURİZM İLE CO2 SALIMI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: PANEL FOURİER TODA-YAMAMOTO NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Year 2022, Issue: 61, 281 - 303, 29.04.2022

Süleyman Yurtkuran

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.988886
Cited By: 7

Abstract

Turizmin gayri safi yurt içi hasıla içerisindeki payı giderek artmaktadır. Fakat bu sektör çevre kirliliğine de sebep olabilmektedir. Bu yüzden bu çalışma gelen turist sayısının en fazla olduğu 10 ülkede 1995-2018 döneminde turizm ile karbon dioksit (CO2) salımı arasındaki ilişkiyi test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Seriler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisini belirlemek için panel Westerlund ve Edgeworth yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Ampirik analiz uzun dönemde turizm ve CO2 salımı arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Uzun dönem katsayılarını elde etmek için Genişletilmiş Ortalama Grup (AMG) uzun dönem tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. AMG tahmincine ait sonuçlar turizmin Fransa, Çin, İtalya ve Türkiye’de CO2 salımını arttırdığını; İspanya, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (ABD), Meksika, Almanya ve Tayland’da bu salımı azalttığını göstermektedir. Mevcut çalışmanın sonuçları, Fransa, Çin, İtalya ve Türkiye’de çevresel açıdan uluslararası turizm sektörünün ciddi bir şekilde dikkate alınması gerektiğini göstermektedir. Bu çalışmada ayrıca yeni geliştirilen Fourier Toda-Yamamoto (TY) Granger nedensellik yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Fourier TY Granger analizinden elde edilen sonuçlar İspanya, Türkiye ve Meksika’da turizmden CO2 salımına, Çin ve Almanya’da CO2 salımından turizme doğru ve ABD’de turizm ile CO2 salımı arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Fransa, İtalya, Tayland ve İngiltere’de iki seri arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanmamıştır. Panelin geneline bakıldığında ise turizm ile CO2 salımı arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu görülmektedir.

Keywords

Turizm CO2 salımı Fourier Toda-Yamamoto

References

  • Akadiri, S. S., Lasisi, T. T., Uzuner, G. & Akadiri, A. C. (2020). Examining the causal impacts of tourism, globalization, economic growth and carbon emissions in tourism island territories: bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(4), 470-484.
  • Al-Mulali, U., Fereidouni, H. G. & Lee, J. Y. (2014). Electricity consumption from renewable and non-renewable sources and economic growth: Evidence from Latin American countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 30, 290-298.
  • Aissa M. S., Jebli, S. & Ben Yousse, F. M. (2014). Output, renewable energy consumption and trade in Africa. Energy Policy, 66, 11-18.
  • Bach, W. & Gössling, S. (1996). Geographische Rundschau. Geographische Rundschau; 48. Vol. 48. Geographische Rundschau; 48 (pp. 54-59). G. Westermann 1996.
  • Balli, E., Sigeze, C., Manga, M., Birdir, S. & Birdir, K. (2019). The relationship between tourism, CO2 emissions and economic growth: a case of Mediterranean countries. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 24(3), 219-232.
  • Becken, S., Frampton, C. & Simmons, D. (2001). Energy consumption patterns in the accommodation sector-the New Zealand case. Ecological Economics, 39(3), 371-386.
  • Becken, S. (2005). Harmonising climate change adaptation and mitigation: The case of tourist resorts in Fiji. Global environmental change, 15(4), 381-393.
  • Becken, S. (2008). Developing indicators for managing tourism in the face of peak oil. Tourism Management, 29(4), 695-705.
  • Breusch, T. S. & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Dalton, G. J., Lockington, D. A. & Baldock, T. E. (2008). A survey of tourist attitudes to renewable energy supply in Australian hotel accommodation. Renewable energy, 33(10), 2174-2185.
  • Davies, T. & Cahill, S. (2000). Environmental implications of the tourism industry (Discussion Paper No. 00-14). Washington, DC: Resources for the Future.
  • Dogan, E., Seker, F. & Bulbul, S. (2017). Investigating the impacts of energy consumption, real GDP, tourism and trade on CO2 emissions by accounting for cross-sectional dependence: a panel study of OECD countries. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(16), 1701-1719.
  • Dwyer, L. & Forsyth, P. (2008). Economic measures of tourism yield: What markets to target? International Journal of Tourism Research, 10, 155-168.
  • Eberhardt, M. & Teal, F. (2010). Productivity Analysis in Global Manufacturing Production. Economics Series Working Papers, 515. University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  • Emirmahmutoglu, F. & Kose, N. (2011). Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 870-876.
  • Enders W. & Jones P. (2016). Grain Prices, Oil Prices, and Multiple Smooth Breaks in a VAR, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 20(4), 399-419.
  • Fisher, I. (1932). Booms and Depressions: Some First Principles (p. viii). New York: Adelphi Company.
  • Ghobadi, G. J. & Verdian, M. S. (2016). The environmental effects of tourism development in Noushahr. Open Journal of Ecology, 6(9), 529-536.
  • Granger, C.W. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 37(3), 424-438.
  • Gössling, S. (2000). Sustainable tourism development in developing countries: Some aspects of energy use. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 8(5), 410-425.
  • Gössling, S. & Peeters, P. (2015). Assessing tourism's global environmental impact 1900-2050. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 23(5), 639-659.
  • Gössling, S., Scott, D. & Hall, C. M. (2015). Inter-market variability in CO2 emissionintensities in tourism: Implications for destination marketing and carbon management. Tourism Management, 46, 203-212.
  • Hall, C. M., Scott, D. & Gössling, S. (2013). The primacy of climate change for sustainable international tourism. Sustainable Development, 21(2), 112-121.
  • Katircioglu, S. T., Feridun, M. & Kilinc, C. (2014). Estimating tourism-induced energy consumption and CO2 emissions: The case of Cyprus. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 29, 634-640.
  • Lee, J. W. & Brahmasrene, T. (2013). Investigating the influence of tourism on economic growth and carbon emissions: Evidence from panel analysis of the European Union. Tourism Management, 38, 69-76.
  • Liu, J., Feng, T. & Yang, X. (2011). The energy requirements and carbon dioxide emissions of tourism industry of Western China: A case of Chengdu city. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15(6), 2887-2894.
  • Nazlioglu S., Gormus, N.A. & Soytas, U. (2016). Oil Prices and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs): Gradual-Shift Causality and Volatility Transmission Analysis. Energy Economics, 60, 168-175.
  • Nepal, S. K. (2008). Tourism-induced rural energy consumption in the Annapurna region of Nepal. Tourism Management, 29, 89-100.
  • Peeters, P. & Dubois, G. (2010). Tourism travel under climate change mitigation constraints. Journal of Transport Geography, 18(3), 447-457.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 435, University of Cambridge, and CESifo Working Paper Series No. 1229.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross‐Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias‐Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross‐Section Independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
  • Pesaran, M. H. & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
  • Scott, D., Peeters, P. & Gössling, S. (2010). Can tourism deliver its “aspirational” emission reduction targets? Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 18(3), 393-408.
  • Scott, D., Gössling, S. & Hall, C. M. (2012). International tourism and climate change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 3(3), 213-232.
  • Shakouri, B., Khoshnevis Yazdi, S. & Ghorchebigi, E. (2017). Does tourism development promote CO2 emissions?. Anatolia, 28(3), 444-452.
  • Solarin, S. A. (2014). Tourist arrivals and macroeconomic determinants of CO2 emissions in Malaysia. Anatolia, 25(2), 228-241.
  • Terzi, H. & Pata, U. K. (2016). Türkiye’nin iktisadi büyümesinde turizm sektörünün katkısı. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (48), 45-64.
  • Toda, H. Y. & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.
  • Tsagarakis, K. P., Bounialetou, F., Gillas, K., Profylienou, M., Pollaki, A. & Zografakis, N. (2011). Tourists’ attitudes for selecting accommodation with investments in renewable energy and energy saving systems. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15(2), 1335-1342.
  • United Nation Environment Programme 2021. Tourism. https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/resource-efficiency/what-we-do/responsible-industry/tourism
  • United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP), World Meteorological Organization (WMO). (2008). Climate change and tourism: Responding to global challenges. UNWTO: Madrid‐UNEP: Paris‐WMO: Geneva.
  • Westerlund, J. & D.L. Edgerton. (2008). A simple test for cointegration in dependent panels with structural breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 70 (5): 665-704.
  • World Bank Development Indicator, 2021. World Bank database. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator /NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.
  • World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC). (2016). Travel & tourism: Economic impact 2016 United World. London: World Travel & Tourism Council.
  • Yilanci, V. & Gorus, M. S. (2020). Does economic globalization have predictive power for ecological footprint in MENA counties? A panel causality test with a Fourier function. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(32), 40552-40562.
  • Yurtkuran, S. (2020). Türkiye’de Turizmin ve Finansal Gelişmenin Ekonomik Büyümeye Katkısı: Turizme Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezi Analizi. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(5), 1531-1542.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TOURISM AND CO2 EMISSION IN THE 10 COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF INCOMING TOURISTS: PANEL FOURIER TODA-YAMAMOTO CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

Year 2022, Issue: 61, 281 - 303, 29.04.2022

Süleyman Yurtkuran

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.988886
Cited By: 7

Abstract

Tourism’s share of gross domestic product is gradually increasing. However, this sector can also cause environmental pollution. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the relationship between tourism and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 10 countries with the highest number of incoming tourists during 1995-2018. The panel Westerlund and Edgeworth approach is employed to evaluate the cointegration between variables. The empirical analysis confirms the existence of a long-run relationship between tourism and CO2 emissions. Augmented Mean Group (AMG) is used to estimate long-term coefficients. The results of the AMG estimator show that tourism increases CO2 emissions in France, China, Italy, and Turkey, and decreases them in Spain, United States of America (USA), Mexico, Germany and Thailand. The results of this study show that the international tourism industry in France, China, Italy and Turkey needs to be taken seriously from an environmental perspective. In addition, the newly developed Fourier Toda-Yamamoto (TY) Granger causality method was used in this study. The results of the Fourier TY Granger analysis state that a unidirectional causality relationship was found from tourism to CO2 emissions in Spain, Turkey and Mexico, from CO2 emissions to tourism in China and Germany, and a bidirectional causality relationship was found between tourism and CO2 emissions in the USA. No causal relationship between the two series was found in France, Italy, Thailand and England. Looking at the panel as a whole, it can be seen that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between tourism and CO2 emissions.

Keywords

Tourism CO2 emissions Fourier Toda-Yamamoto

References

  • Akadiri, S. S., Lasisi, T. T., Uzuner, G. & Akadiri, A. C. (2020). Examining the causal impacts of tourism, globalization, economic growth and carbon emissions in tourism island territories: bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(4), 470-484.
  • Al-Mulali, U., Fereidouni, H. G. & Lee, J. Y. (2014). Electricity consumption from renewable and non-renewable sources and economic growth: Evidence from Latin American countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 30, 290-298.
  • Aissa M. S., Jebli, S. & Ben Yousse, F. M. (2014). Output, renewable energy consumption and trade in Africa. Energy Policy, 66, 11-18.
  • Bach, W. & Gössling, S. (1996). Geographische Rundschau. Geographische Rundschau; 48. Vol. 48. Geographische Rundschau; 48 (pp. 54-59). G. Westermann 1996.
  • Balli, E., Sigeze, C., Manga, M., Birdir, S. & Birdir, K. (2019). The relationship between tourism, CO2 emissions and economic growth: a case of Mediterranean countries. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 24(3), 219-232.
  • Becken, S., Frampton, C. & Simmons, D. (2001). Energy consumption patterns in the accommodation sector-the New Zealand case. Ecological Economics, 39(3), 371-386.
  • Becken, S. (2005). Harmonising climate change adaptation and mitigation: The case of tourist resorts in Fiji. Global environmental change, 15(4), 381-393.
  • Becken, S. (2008). Developing indicators for managing tourism in the face of peak oil. Tourism Management, 29(4), 695-705.
  • Breusch, T. S. & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Dalton, G. J., Lockington, D. A. & Baldock, T. E. (2008). A survey of tourist attitudes to renewable energy supply in Australian hotel accommodation. Renewable energy, 33(10), 2174-2185.
  • Davies, T. & Cahill, S. (2000). Environmental implications of the tourism industry (Discussion Paper No. 00-14). Washington, DC: Resources for the Future.
  • Dogan, E., Seker, F. & Bulbul, S. (2017). Investigating the impacts of energy consumption, real GDP, tourism and trade on CO2 emissions by accounting for cross-sectional dependence: a panel study of OECD countries. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(16), 1701-1719.
  • Dwyer, L. & Forsyth, P. (2008). Economic measures of tourism yield: What markets to target? International Journal of Tourism Research, 10, 155-168.
  • Eberhardt, M. & Teal, F. (2010). Productivity Analysis in Global Manufacturing Production. Economics Series Working Papers, 515. University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  • Emirmahmutoglu, F. & Kose, N. (2011). Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 870-876.
  • Enders W. & Jones P. (2016). Grain Prices, Oil Prices, and Multiple Smooth Breaks in a VAR, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 20(4), 399-419.
  • Fisher, I. (1932). Booms and Depressions: Some First Principles (p. viii). New York: Adelphi Company.
  • Ghobadi, G. J. & Verdian, M. S. (2016). The environmental effects of tourism development in Noushahr. Open Journal of Ecology, 6(9), 529-536.
  • Granger, C.W. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 37(3), 424-438.
  • Gössling, S. (2000). Sustainable tourism development in developing countries: Some aspects of energy use. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 8(5), 410-425.
  • Gössling, S. & Peeters, P. (2015). Assessing tourism's global environmental impact 1900-2050. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 23(5), 639-659.
  • Gössling, S., Scott, D. & Hall, C. M. (2015). Inter-market variability in CO2 emissionintensities in tourism: Implications for destination marketing and carbon management. Tourism Management, 46, 203-212.
  • Hall, C. M., Scott, D. & Gössling, S. (2013). The primacy of climate change for sustainable international tourism. Sustainable Development, 21(2), 112-121.
  • Katircioglu, S. T., Feridun, M. & Kilinc, C. (2014). Estimating tourism-induced energy consumption and CO2 emissions: The case of Cyprus. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 29, 634-640.
  • Lee, J. W. & Brahmasrene, T. (2013). Investigating the influence of tourism on economic growth and carbon emissions: Evidence from panel analysis of the European Union. Tourism Management, 38, 69-76.
  • Liu, J., Feng, T. & Yang, X. (2011). The energy requirements and carbon dioxide emissions of tourism industry of Western China: A case of Chengdu city. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15(6), 2887-2894.
  • Nazlioglu S., Gormus, N.A. & Soytas, U. (2016). Oil Prices and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs): Gradual-Shift Causality and Volatility Transmission Analysis. Energy Economics, 60, 168-175.
  • Nepal, S. K. (2008). Tourism-induced rural energy consumption in the Annapurna region of Nepal. Tourism Management, 29, 89-100.
  • Peeters, P. & Dubois, G. (2010). Tourism travel under climate change mitigation constraints. Journal of Transport Geography, 18(3), 447-457.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 435, University of Cambridge, and CESifo Working Paper Series No. 1229.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross‐Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias‐Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross‐Section Independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
  • Pesaran, M. H. & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
  • Scott, D., Peeters, P. & Gössling, S. (2010). Can tourism deliver its “aspirational” emission reduction targets? Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 18(3), 393-408.
  • Scott, D., Gössling, S. & Hall, C. M. (2012). International tourism and climate change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 3(3), 213-232.
  • Shakouri, B., Khoshnevis Yazdi, S. & Ghorchebigi, E. (2017). Does tourism development promote CO2 emissions?. Anatolia, 28(3), 444-452.
  • Solarin, S. A. (2014). Tourist arrivals and macroeconomic determinants of CO2 emissions in Malaysia. Anatolia, 25(2), 228-241.
  • Terzi, H. & Pata, U. K. (2016). Türkiye’nin iktisadi büyümesinde turizm sektörünün katkısı. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (48), 45-64.
  • Toda, H. Y. & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.
  • Tsagarakis, K. P., Bounialetou, F., Gillas, K., Profylienou, M., Pollaki, A. & Zografakis, N. (2011). Tourists’ attitudes for selecting accommodation with investments in renewable energy and energy saving systems. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15(2), 1335-1342.
  • United Nation Environment Programme 2021. Tourism. https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/resource-efficiency/what-we-do/responsible-industry/tourism
  • United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP), World Meteorological Organization (WMO). (2008). Climate change and tourism: Responding to global challenges. UNWTO: Madrid‐UNEP: Paris‐WMO: Geneva.
  • Westerlund, J. & D.L. Edgerton. (2008). A simple test for cointegration in dependent panels with structural breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 70 (5): 665-704.
  • World Bank Development Indicator, 2021. World Bank database. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator /NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.
  • World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC). (2016). Travel & tourism: Economic impact 2016 United World. London: World Travel & Tourism Council.
  • Yilanci, V. & Gorus, M. S. (2020). Does economic globalization have predictive power for ecological footprint in MENA counties? A panel causality test with a Fourier function. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(32), 40552-40562.
  • Yurtkuran, S. (2020). Türkiye’de Turizmin ve Finansal Gelişmenin Ekonomik Büyümeye Katkısı: Turizme Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezi Analizi. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(5), 1531-1542.
There are 47 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Süleyman Yurtkuran 0000-0002-7085-9203

Early Pub Date April 28, 2022
Publication Date April 29, 2022
Acceptance Date December 28, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2022 Issue: 61

Cite

APA Yurtkuran, S. (2022). GELEN TURİST SAYISININ EN FAZLA OLDUĞU 10 ÜLKEDE TURİZM İLE CO2 SALIMI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: PANEL FOURİER TODA-YAMAMOTO NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(61), 281-303. https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.988886

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The journal is published three times a year, in April, August, and December. It includes original, high-quality, and scientifically supported research articles and reviews in its listed fields. Academic studies unrelated to these disciplines or their theoretical and empirical foundations are not accepted. The journal's languages are Turkish and English.

Submissions are first subject to a preliminary review for format and content. Manuscripts not meeting the journal's standards are rejected by the editorial board. Manuscripts deemed suitable proceed to the peer review stage.

Each submission is sent to at least two expert reviewers. If both reviews are favorable, the article is approved for publication. In cases where one review is positive and the other negative, the editorial board decides based on the reviews or may send the manuscript to a third reviewer.

Articles published in the journal are open access and can be cited under the Creative Commons license, provided proper attribution is made.