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THE EFFECT OF GLOBALIZATION AND ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN COUNTRIES WITH TURKIC STATE ORGANIZATION

Year 2024, Issue: 68, 127 - 135, 31.08.2024

Rüya Ataklı Yavuz , Selahattin Bektaş

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.1355872

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the impact of economic complexity and globalization on economic growth for a total of 7 countries, including the member countries of the Turkic Council (Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan) for the period 1995-2019, as well as Hungary and Turkmenistan, which are currently observer members of the organization. To achieve this goal, three models were estimated using panel data analysis techniques. In the first model, the effects of the economic complexity index and the sub-indices of the KOF globalization index, namely economic, social, and political globalization indices, on economic growth were investigated. In the second model, the impact of the KOF globalization index on economic growth was examined. For the first and second models, the panel regression-based robust standard errors approach of Driscoll-Kraay was adopted to obtain consistent estimates. In the third model, the relationships among the variables in the first model were re-estimated using the AMG estimator, taking into account unit roots and cross-sectional dependence, and the coefficients were estimated for both the panel and the units comprising the panel. The empirical findings suggest that consistent results were obtained both for the panel as a whole and for individual countries.

Keywords

Keywords: Economic Complexity Index KOF Globalization Index Economic Growth Panel Data Analysis Driscoll-Kraay AMG

References

  • Baltagi, H. B. ve Wu, P. X. (1999). Unequally spaced panel data regressions with AR(1) disturbances, Econometric Theory, 15, 814-823.
  • Barış, S. ve Barış, A. (2018). Küreselleşme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Avrupa Birliği ülkelerinden deliller. In Proceedings of 4th SCF International Conference on Economics and Social Impacts of Globalization and Future Turkey-European Union Relations, April, ss.63-73.
  • Bayar, İ. (2022). Ekonomik karmaşıklık indeksi ve ekonomik büyüme: CIVETS ülkelerinden ampirik kanıtlar. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 36, 237-251.
  • Bhargava, A., Franzini, L. ve Narendranathan, W. (1982). Serial correlation and the fixed effects model. The Review of Economic Studies, 49(4), 533-549.
  • Boğa, Semra. (2019). Ekonomik karmaşıklık seviyesinin ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi: geçiş ülkeleri için bir panel zaman serisi analizi. Akademik Hassasiyetler, 6(12), 357-386.
  • Brown, M. B. ve Forsythe, A. B. (1974). Robust tests for the equality of variances. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 69(346), 364-367.
  • Chang, C. P. ve Lee, C. C. (2010). Globalization and economic growth: A political economy analysis for OECD countries. Global Economic Review, 39(2), 151-173.
  • Çeştepe, H. ve Çağlar, O. (2017). Ürün sofistikasyonu ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Panel veri analizi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 13(13), 992-1000.
  • Çınar, M. (2021). Panel veri ekonometrisi: Stata ve EViews uygulamalı. Ekin Yayınevi.
  • Doğan, B., Balsalobre-Lorente, D. ve Nasir, M. A. (2020). European commitment to COP21 and the role of energy consumption, FDI, trade and economic complexity in sustaining economic growth. Journal of Environmental Management, 273, 111-146.
  • Dreher, A. (2006). Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization. Applied Economics, 38(10), 1091-1110.
  • Driscoll, J. C. ve Kraay, A. C. (1998). Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4), 549-560.
  • Eberhardt, M. ve Bond, S. (2009). Cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models: A novel estimator. Paper Presented at the Nordic Econometrics Conference in Lund. 1-28.
  • Ertan Özgüzer, G. ve Oğuş-Binatlı, A. (2016). Economic convergence in the EU: A complexity approach. Eastern European Economics, 54(2), 93-108.
  • Ferrarini, B. ve Scaramozzino, P. (2016). Production complexity, adaptability and economic growth. Structural Change And Economic Dynamics, 37, 52-61.
  • Gardezi, M. A., Aurmaghan, M. ve Nawaz, M. A. (2021). Impact of globalization on economic growth: Evidence from Pakistan. Journal of Contemporary Macroeconomic Issues, 2(2), 33-43.
  • Giddens, A. (2003). Runaway world: How globalization is reshaping our lives. Taylor & Francis.
  • Gurgul, H. ve Lach, Ł. (2014). Globalization and economic growth: Evidence from two decades of transition in CEE. Economic Modelling, 36, 99-107.
  • Hausmann, R., Hidalgo, C. A., Bustos, S., Coscia, M., Chung, S., Jiménez, J. ve Yildririm, M. A. (2013). The atlas of economic complexity: mapping paths to prosperity. Updated edition. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
  • Hausmann, R., Hidalgo, C.A., Bustos, S., Coscia, M., Simoes, A. ve Yildirim, M. A. (2009). The Atlas of Economic Complexity. Complexity, 106, 10570-10575.
  • Hausmann, R., Hwang, J. ve Rodrik, D. (2007). What you export matters. Journal Of Economic Growth, 12, 1-25.
  • Hayaloğlu, P., Kalaycı, C. ve Artan, S. (2015). Küreselleşme farklı gelir grubundaki ülkelerde ekonomik büyümeyi nasıl etkilemektedir. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 10(1), 119-152.
  • Held, D., McGrew, A., Goldblatt, D. ve Perraton, J. (1999). Global transformations: Politics, economics and culture. In Politics at the Edge: The PSA Yearbook, 14-28. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK.
  • Hidalgo, C. A. ve Hausmann, R. (2009). The building blocks of economic complexity. Proceedings of The National Academy of Sciences, 106(26), 10570-10575.
  • Kılıçarslan, Z. ve Dumrul, Y. (2018). The impact of globalization on economic growth: empirical evidence from the Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 8(5), 115-123.
  • Levene, H. (1960). Robust testes for equality of variances. In “Contributions to Probability and Statistics” (I. Olkin), Stanford Univ. Press, Palo Alto, CA.MR0120709, 278–292.
  • Meta, F. E., Eruygur, H. O. ve Tokatlıoğlu, İ. (2021). Türk bankacılık sektöründe regülasyon-piyasa yapısı ilişkisi: Panel veri AMG analizi. İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 13(3), 2571-2586.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. University of Cambridge Working Paper, 0435.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M. H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
  • Potrafke, N. (2015). The evidence on globalisation. The World Economy, 38(3), 509-552.
  • Rodrik, D. (2006). What's so special about China's exports?. China & World Economy, 14(5), 1-19.
  • Samimi, P. ve Jenatabadi, H. S. (2014). Globalization and economic growth: Empirical evidence on the role of complementarities. PloS One, 9(4), e87824.
  • Soyyiğit, S. (2018). OECD kurucu ülkelerinde ekonomik kompleksite düzeyi ile kişi başına düşen GSYH arasındaki ilişki: panel eşbütünleşme analizi. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksekokulu Dergisi, 21(2), 374-392.
  • Steger, B. M. (2017). Globalization: A very short introduction (Vol. 86). Oxford University Press.
  • Stojkoski, V. ve Kocarev, L. (2017). The relationship between growth and economic complexity: evidence from Southeastern and Central Europe. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, Paper No. 77837. 2017.
  • Suci, S. C., Asmara, A. ve Mulatsih, S. (2016). The impact of globalization on economic growth in ASEAN. International Journal of Administrative Science & Organization, vol. 22 no. 2, 2015, ss. 79-87.
  • Swamy, P. A. (1970). Efficient inference in a random coefficient regression model. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 38(2), 311–323.
  • Swiss Economic Institute. (2023). KOF Globalisation Index, https://kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts-and-indicators/indicators/kof-globalisation-index.html
  • Teal, F. ve Eberhardt, M. (2010). Productivity analysis in global manufacturing production. Economics Series Working Papers, no 515, University of Oxford, Department of Econonomics.
  • The Growth Lab at Harvard University. (2023). The Atlas of Economic Complexity. http://www.atlas.cid.harvard.edu.
  • Türk Devletleri Teşkilatı. (2024). Türk Devletleri Teşkilatının faaliyetleri https://www.turkicstates.org/tr/turk-devletleri-teskilatinin-faaliyetleri, Erişim Tarihi: 27.05.2024.
  • Villaverde, J. ve Maza, A. (2011). Globalisation, growth and convergence. The World Economy, 34(6), 952-971.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2020a). İleri Panel Veri Analizi: Stata Uygulamalı. Beta Basım Yayım Dağıtım, İstanbul.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2020b). Panel Veri Ekonometrisi: Stata Uygulamalı. Beta Basım Yayım Dağıtım, İstanbul.
  • Yıldız, B. ve Yıldız, G. A. (2019). Ekonomik karmaşıklık ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: panel Bootstrap Granger nedensellik analizi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi. 15(2), 329-340.
  • Zhu, S. ve Li, R. (2017). Economic complexity, human capital and economic growth: empirical research based on cross-country panel data. Applied Economics, 49(38), 3815-3828.

TÜRK DEVLETLERİ TEŞKİLATI ÜLKELERİNDE KÜRESELLEŞME İLE EKONOMİK KARMAŞIKLIĞIN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ

Year 2024, Issue: 68, 127 - 135, 31.08.2024

Rüya Ataklı Yavuz , Selahattin Bektaş

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.1355872

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı 1995-2019 periyodu için Türk Devletleri Teşkilatı üyesi ülkeler (Türkiye, Azerbaycan, Kazakistan, Kırgızistan, Özbekistan) ile hali hazırda teşkilat bünyesinde gözlemci üye statüsünde yer alan ülkelerden Macaristan, Türkmenistan olmak üzere toplam 7 ülke için ekonomik karmaşıklık ile küreselleşmenin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda panel veri analizi yöntemi tekniklerinden istifade edilerek üç model tahmin edilmiştir. İlk modelde ekonomik karmaşıklık endeksi ve KOF küreselleşme endeksinin alt endeksleri olan ekonomik, sosyal ve politik küreselleşme endekslerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkileri araştırılmıştır. İkinci modelde ise KOF küreselleşme endeksinin ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada birinci ve ikinci modeller için panel regresyon temelli dirençli standart hatalar yaklaşımı Driscoll-Kraay benimsenerek rassal etkili tahminler yapılmıştır. Üçüncü modelde ise ilk modeldeki değişkenler arası ilişkiler, birim kök ve yatay kesit bağımlılığını da baz alan AMG tahmincisi ile panel ve paneli oluşturan birimlere yönelik katsayıları da içerecek biçimde yeniden tahmin edilmiştir. Ampirik bulgulara göre hem panelin geneli için hem de ülkeler özelinde tutarlı sonuçlar elde edildiği söylenebilir.

Keywords

Ekonomik Karmaşıklık Endeksi KOF Küreselleşme Endeksi Ekonomik Büyüme Panel Veri Yöntemi AMG Driscoll-Kraay

References

  • Baltagi, H. B. ve Wu, P. X. (1999). Unequally spaced panel data regressions with AR(1) disturbances, Econometric Theory, 15, 814-823.
  • Barış, S. ve Barış, A. (2018). Küreselleşme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Avrupa Birliği ülkelerinden deliller. In Proceedings of 4th SCF International Conference on Economics and Social Impacts of Globalization and Future Turkey-European Union Relations, April, ss.63-73.
  • Bayar, İ. (2022). Ekonomik karmaşıklık indeksi ve ekonomik büyüme: CIVETS ülkelerinden ampirik kanıtlar. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 36, 237-251.
  • Bhargava, A., Franzini, L. ve Narendranathan, W. (1982). Serial correlation and the fixed effects model. The Review of Economic Studies, 49(4), 533-549.
  • Boğa, Semra. (2019). Ekonomik karmaşıklık seviyesinin ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi: geçiş ülkeleri için bir panel zaman serisi analizi. Akademik Hassasiyetler, 6(12), 357-386.
  • Brown, M. B. ve Forsythe, A. B. (1974). Robust tests for the equality of variances. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 69(346), 364-367.
  • Chang, C. P. ve Lee, C. C. (2010). Globalization and economic growth: A political economy analysis for OECD countries. Global Economic Review, 39(2), 151-173.
  • Çeştepe, H. ve Çağlar, O. (2017). Ürün sofistikasyonu ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Panel veri analizi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 13(13), 992-1000.
  • Çınar, M. (2021). Panel veri ekonometrisi: Stata ve EViews uygulamalı. Ekin Yayınevi.
  • Doğan, B., Balsalobre-Lorente, D. ve Nasir, M. A. (2020). European commitment to COP21 and the role of energy consumption, FDI, trade and economic complexity in sustaining economic growth. Journal of Environmental Management, 273, 111-146.
  • Dreher, A. (2006). Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization. Applied Economics, 38(10), 1091-1110.
  • Driscoll, J. C. ve Kraay, A. C. (1998). Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4), 549-560.
  • Eberhardt, M. ve Bond, S. (2009). Cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models: A novel estimator. Paper Presented at the Nordic Econometrics Conference in Lund. 1-28.
  • Ertan Özgüzer, G. ve Oğuş-Binatlı, A. (2016). Economic convergence in the EU: A complexity approach. Eastern European Economics, 54(2), 93-108.
  • Ferrarini, B. ve Scaramozzino, P. (2016). Production complexity, adaptability and economic growth. Structural Change And Economic Dynamics, 37, 52-61.
  • Gardezi, M. A., Aurmaghan, M. ve Nawaz, M. A. (2021). Impact of globalization on economic growth: Evidence from Pakistan. Journal of Contemporary Macroeconomic Issues, 2(2), 33-43.
  • Giddens, A. (2003). Runaway world: How globalization is reshaping our lives. Taylor & Francis.
  • Gurgul, H. ve Lach, Ł. (2014). Globalization and economic growth: Evidence from two decades of transition in CEE. Economic Modelling, 36, 99-107.
  • Hausmann, R., Hidalgo, C. A., Bustos, S., Coscia, M., Chung, S., Jiménez, J. ve Yildririm, M. A. (2013). The atlas of economic complexity: mapping paths to prosperity. Updated edition. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
  • Hausmann, R., Hidalgo, C.A., Bustos, S., Coscia, M., Simoes, A. ve Yildirim, M. A. (2009). The Atlas of Economic Complexity. Complexity, 106, 10570-10575.
  • Hausmann, R., Hwang, J. ve Rodrik, D. (2007). What you export matters. Journal Of Economic Growth, 12, 1-25.
  • Hayaloğlu, P., Kalaycı, C. ve Artan, S. (2015). Küreselleşme farklı gelir grubundaki ülkelerde ekonomik büyümeyi nasıl etkilemektedir. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 10(1), 119-152.
  • Held, D., McGrew, A., Goldblatt, D. ve Perraton, J. (1999). Global transformations: Politics, economics and culture. In Politics at the Edge: The PSA Yearbook, 14-28. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK.
  • Hidalgo, C. A. ve Hausmann, R. (2009). The building blocks of economic complexity. Proceedings of The National Academy of Sciences, 106(26), 10570-10575.
  • Kılıçarslan, Z. ve Dumrul, Y. (2018). The impact of globalization on economic growth: empirical evidence from the Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 8(5), 115-123.
  • Levene, H. (1960). Robust testes for equality of variances. In “Contributions to Probability and Statistics” (I. Olkin), Stanford Univ. Press, Palo Alto, CA.MR0120709, 278–292.
  • Meta, F. E., Eruygur, H. O. ve Tokatlıoğlu, İ. (2021). Türk bankacılık sektöründe regülasyon-piyasa yapısı ilişkisi: Panel veri AMG analizi. İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 13(3), 2571-2586.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. University of Cambridge Working Paper, 0435.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M. H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
  • Potrafke, N. (2015). The evidence on globalisation. The World Economy, 38(3), 509-552.
  • Rodrik, D. (2006). What's so special about China's exports?. China & World Economy, 14(5), 1-19.
  • Samimi, P. ve Jenatabadi, H. S. (2014). Globalization and economic growth: Empirical evidence on the role of complementarities. PloS One, 9(4), e87824.
  • Soyyiğit, S. (2018). OECD kurucu ülkelerinde ekonomik kompleksite düzeyi ile kişi başına düşen GSYH arasındaki ilişki: panel eşbütünleşme analizi. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksekokulu Dergisi, 21(2), 374-392.
  • Steger, B. M. (2017). Globalization: A very short introduction (Vol. 86). Oxford University Press.
  • Stojkoski, V. ve Kocarev, L. (2017). The relationship between growth and economic complexity: evidence from Southeastern and Central Europe. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, Paper No. 77837. 2017.
  • Suci, S. C., Asmara, A. ve Mulatsih, S. (2016). The impact of globalization on economic growth in ASEAN. International Journal of Administrative Science & Organization, vol. 22 no. 2, 2015, ss. 79-87.
  • Swamy, P. A. (1970). Efficient inference in a random coefficient regression model. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 38(2), 311–323.
  • Swiss Economic Institute. (2023). KOF Globalisation Index, https://kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts-and-indicators/indicators/kof-globalisation-index.html
  • Teal, F. ve Eberhardt, M. (2010). Productivity analysis in global manufacturing production. Economics Series Working Papers, no 515, University of Oxford, Department of Econonomics.
  • The Growth Lab at Harvard University. (2023). The Atlas of Economic Complexity. http://www.atlas.cid.harvard.edu.
  • Türk Devletleri Teşkilatı. (2024). Türk Devletleri Teşkilatının faaliyetleri https://www.turkicstates.org/tr/turk-devletleri-teskilatinin-faaliyetleri, Erişim Tarihi: 27.05.2024.
  • Villaverde, J. ve Maza, A. (2011). Globalisation, growth and convergence. The World Economy, 34(6), 952-971.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2020a). İleri Panel Veri Analizi: Stata Uygulamalı. Beta Basım Yayım Dağıtım, İstanbul.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2020b). Panel Veri Ekonometrisi: Stata Uygulamalı. Beta Basım Yayım Dağıtım, İstanbul.
  • Yıldız, B. ve Yıldız, G. A. (2019). Ekonomik karmaşıklık ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: panel Bootstrap Granger nedensellik analizi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi. 15(2), 329-340.
  • Zhu, S. ve Li, R. (2017). Economic complexity, human capital and economic growth: empirical research based on cross-country panel data. Applied Economics, 49(38), 3815-3828.
There are 47 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Panel Data Analysis
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Rüya Ataklı Yavuz 0000-0003-3147-333X

Selahattin Bektaş 0000-0001-6285-8318

Early Pub Date August 22, 2024
Publication Date August 31, 2024
Acceptance Date June 25, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024 Issue: 68

Cite

APA Ataklı Yavuz, R., & Bektaş, S. (2024). TÜRK DEVLETLERİ TEŞKİLATI ÜLKELERİNDE KÜRESELLEŞME İLE EKONOMİK KARMAŞIKLIĞIN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(68), 127-135. https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.1355872
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