KİMLİĞİN ALMANYA'DAKİ TÜRK DİASPORASININ OY VERME DAVRANIŞINA ETKİSİ: 2018 TÜRKİYE SEÇİMLERİNDE AK PARTİ OYLARINA İLİŞKİN BİR ÇALIŞMA

Year 2024, Issue: 68, 91 - 97, 31.08.2024

Ergin Ulusoy , Gülnihan Avcı Kaya

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.1453541

Abstract

Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (AK Parti) iktidara geldikten sonra devletin diasporaya yönelik politikaları değişmiştir. Elbette siyasetteki bu radikal değişim diasporanın oy tercihlerine de yansımıştır. Diasporada kimlik, oy verme davranışını belirleyen temel faktördür. Dolayısıyla diasporanın oy verme tercihi öncelikle kimlikle ilişkilidir. Bu çalışma, Almanya'da yaşayan diasporaya odaklanmakta ve AK Parti/Erdoğan ile diaspora arasında güçlü bir kimliksel etkileşimi olduğu sonucuna varmaktadır. Araştırma, AK Parti ve Erdoğan'ın politika ve söylemlerinin diasporanın konsolidasyonuna yönelik olduğunu ileri sürmektedir. Söz konusu ilişki, resmi kurumların seçim ve demografik istatistikleri ile benzer sonuçlara sahip önceki araştırmaların sonuçları ve Alman’yadaki Türk diasporasına ilişkin literatür ile desteklenmekte ve Türkiye'ye ilişkin verilerle karşılaştırılarak anlamlı bir tablo ortaya konulmaktadır.

Keywords

Turkish diaspora, external voting, political participation of diaspora, diaspora’s voting behaviour, AK Parti and diaspora

Ethical Statement

Çalışma, bilimsel ve yayın etiği kurallarına uygun biçimde hazırlanmıştır. Yazarlar arasında herhangi bir çıkar çatışmaması bulunmamaktadır.

THE EFFECT OF IDENTITY ON THE VOTING BEHAVIOR OF THE TURKISH DIASPORA IN GERMANY: A STUDY ON THE AK PARTY’S VOTES IN THE 2018 TURKEY ELECTIONS

Abstract

After the Justice And Development Party (AK Party) came to power, the policies of the state towards the diaspora changed. Of course, this radical change in politics was also reflected in the voting preferences of the diaspora. Identity is the main factor that determines voting behaviour. Thus, voting choice of the diaspora is primarily related to identity. This study focuses on to the diaspora living in Germany and concludes that there is a strong identity interaction between the AK Party/Erdoğan and the diaspora. This research asserts that the policies and discourse of the AK Party and Erdoğan are directed towards the consolidation of the diaspora. The existence of this interaction with the election and demographic statistics of official institutions is supported by the results of previous surveys with similar outcomes and the literature related to the German diaspora and compare it with the data on Turkey to present a meaningful picture.

Keywords

Turkish diaspora, external voting, political participation of diaspora, diaspora’s voting behaviour, AK Party and diaspora

Ethical Statement

The study was prepared in accordance with the rules of scientific and publication ethics. There is no conflict of interest between the authors.

References

• Abadan-Unat, N., Çıdam, V.; Çınar, D.; Kadirbeyoğlu, Z.; Kaynak, S.; Özay, B. and Taş, S, (2014). Votıng Behavıour of Euro-Turks And Turkey’s Presıdentıal Electıons of 2014. Research Paper. Friedrich Ebert Stiftung and Boğaziçi University.
• Adaman F., Kaya A. (2012). Social Impact of Emigration and Rural-Urban Migration in Central and Eastern Europe: Turkey Report Prepared for the Directory General of Employment. Social Affairs and Inclusion of the European Commission Under the Auspices of GVG in Cologne, Germany.
• Adamson, F. B. (2019). Sending States and the Making of Intra-Diasporic Politics: Turkey and Its Diaspora(s). International Migration Review, 53(1):210–36. doi: 10.1177/0197918318767665.
• Adar, S. (2019). Rethinking Political Attitudes of Migrants from Turkey and Their Germany-Born Children. SWP Research Paper, 7, Berlin: German Institute for International and Security Affairs doi: https://doi.org/10.18449/2019RP07
• Anadolu Ajansı (2021). Growing Diaspora in Europe Instills Hope in Us: Erdogan. https://ww https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/growing-diaspora-in-europe-instills-hope-in-us-erdogan/2205441 w.aa.com.tr/en/europe/growing-diaspora-in-europe-instills-hope-in-us-erdogan/2205441.
• Ancien, D., Boyle, M. and Rob, K. (2009). Exploring Diaspora Strategies: An International Comparison. Maynooth.
• Anderson, C. J. (2009). The Interaction of Structures and Voter Behavior in Dalton, Russell J., Klingemann eds., The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, pp: 589–609. NewYork: Oxford University Press,
• Arkilic, A. (2021). Turkish Populist Nationalism in Transnational Space: Explaining Diaspora Voting Behaviour in Homeland Elections. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 23(4):586–605. doi: 10.1080/19448953.2021.1888599.
• Aydın, Y. (2014). The New Turkish Diaspora Policy. SWP Research Paper, 10. Berlin: German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
• Baser Ozturk, B. and Ozturk, A. E. (2019). Turkey’s Diaspora Governance Policies and Diasporas from Turkey In Germany: A Critical Reading Of The Changing Dynamics in Hatay, Mete & Zenonas Tziarras, eds. Kinship and Diasporas in Turkish Foreign Policy: Examples from Europe, the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. Chapter:10. 29-45. PRIO Cyprus Centre Report: Nicosia: PRIO Cyprus Centre.
• Bauböck, R. (2009). The Rights and Duties of External Citizenship. Citizenship Studies 13(5):475–99. doi: 10.1080/13621020903174647.
• Baysu, G. and Swyngedouw, M. (2020). What Determines Voting Behaviors of Muslim Minorities in Europe: Muslim Identity or Left‐Right Ideology? Political Psychology 41(5):837–60. doi: 10.1111/pops.12653.
• Bornschier, S., Häusermann, S., Zollinger, D. and Colombo, C. (2021). How ‘Us’ and ‘Them’ Relates to Voting Behavior—Social Structure, Social Identities, and Electoral Choice. Comparative Political Studies 54(12):2087–2122. doi: 10.1177/0010414021997504.
• Brand, L. A. (2010). Authoritarian States and Voting from Abroad: North African Experiences. Comparative Politics, 43(1):81–99. doi: 10.5129/001041510X12911363510439.
• Burgess, K. (2014). Unpacking the Diaspora Channel in New Democracies: When Do Migrants Act Politically Back Home? Studies in Comparative International Development, 49(1):13–43. doi: 10.1007/s12116-014-9151-5.
• Brubaker, R. (2005). The 'Diaspora' Diaspora, Ethnic and Racial Studies, Vol. 28/No. 1.
• Caramani, D, and Grotz, F. (2015). Beyond Citizenship and Residence? Exploring the Extension of Voting Rights in the Age of Globalization. Democratization, 22(5):799–819. doi: 10.1080/13510347.2014.981668.
• Carmines, E., and Huckfeldt, R. (1998). Political Behavior: An Overview in R. E. Goodin and H.-D. Klingemann eds. A New Handbook of Political Science. 233-54. New York: Oxford University Press.
• Chazan, G. (2017). Turkish Rifts Stir up Germany as Referendum Nears. Financial Times. Retrieved.
• Chen, Y. W. et al. (2015). Gone but Not Forgotten: The (Re-)Making of Diaspora Strategies. Asian Ethnicity, vol. 16, no. 3, July 2015, pp. 371–79, doi:10.1080/14631369.2013.878210.
• Chirco, P. and Buchanan, T. M. 2022. ‘Dark Faces in White Spaces: The Effects of Skin Tone, Race, Ethnicity, and Intergroup Preferences on Interpersonal Judgments and Voting Behavior.’ Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, 22(1):427–47. doi: 10.1111/asap.12304.
• Collyer, M. (2014). A Geography of Extra-Territorial Citizenship: Explanations of External Voting. Migration Studies, 2(1):55–72. doi: 10.1093/migration/mns008.
• Collyer, M. and Vathi, Z. (2007). Patterns of Extra-Territorial Voting. Development Research Centre on Migration, Globalisation and Poverty Working Paper, 22, 1-36.
• Condon, M. 2015. ‘Voice Lessons: Rethinking the Relationship Between Education and Political Participation’. Political Behavior, 37(4):819–43.
• Délano Alonso, A. and Mylonas, H. (2019). The Microfoundations of Diaspora Politics: Unpacking the State and Disaggregating the Diaspora. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 45(4):473–91. doi: 10.1080/1369183X.2017.1409160.
• Erdoğan, M., Kaya, A. and Ünver, C. (2013). Euro-Turks Barometer. Euro-Turks Araştırması Raporu. Ankara: Hacettepe Üniversitesi Göç Araştırmaları Merkezi (HUGO).
• Evrenk, H. and Sher, C. Y. (2015). Social Interactions in Voting Behavior: Distinguishing between Strategic Voting and the Bandwagon Effect. Public Choice, 162(3–4):405–23. doi: 10.1007/s11127-015-0241-3.
• Fidrmuc, J.; Orla, D. (2006). Does Where You Live Affect How You Vote? An Analysis of Migrant Voting Behavior. Discussion Paper Series, No: 4619. Institutions And Economic Performance.
• Friese, M. et al. (2016). Implicit Measures of Attitudes and Political Voting Behavior. Social and Personality Psychology Compass, vol. 10, no. 4, Apr: 188–201.
• Gamlen, A. (2015). The Impacts of Extra-Territorial Voting: Swings, Interregnums and Feedback Effects in New Zealand Elections from 1914 to 2011. Political Geography, 44:1–8. doi: 10.1016/j.polgeo.2014.08.005.cipation in Countries of Origin and of Residence. Nationalities Papers, 44(3):456–72. doi: 10.1080/00905992.2015.1132690.
• Goldberg Andreas C. (2014). The Impact of Religion on Voting Behaviour - A Multilevel Approach for Switzerland. Swiss Political Science Review, 20(2):305–29. doi: 10.1111/spsr.12068.
• Goldberg Andreas, C. and Lanz, S. (2021). Living Abroad, Voting as If at Home? Electoral Motivations of Expatriates. Migration Studies, 9(2):279–310. doi: 10.1093/migration/mnz018.
• Guarnizo, L. E. (2003). The Economics of Transnational Living. International Migration Review, 37(3):666–99. doi: 10.1111/j.1747-7379.2003.tb00154.x.
• Hansen, E. R. and Tyner, A. (2021). Educational Attainment and Social Norms of Voting. Political Behavior, 43(2):711–35. doi: 10.1007/s11109-019-09571-8.
• Hartmann, C. (2015). Expatriates as Voters? The New Dynamics of External Voting in Sub-Saharan Africa. Democratization, 22(5):906–26. doi: 10.1080/13510347.2014.979800.
• Hillygus, D. S. (2005). The Missing Link: Exploring the Relationship Between Higher Education and Political Engagement. Political Behavior, 27(1):25–47.
• Ho, E. L., Hickey, M. and Yeoh, B. S. A. (2015). Special Issue Introduction: New Research Directions and Critical Perspectives on Diaspora Strategies. Geoforum, 59:153–58. doi: 10.1016/j.geoforum.2014.12.006. Kalın, İ. (2011). Soft Power and Diplomacy. Perceptions, 16(3):5–23.
• Köşer-Akçapar, Ş. and Bayraktar-Aksel, D. (2017). Public Diplomacy through Diaspora Engagement: He Case of Turkey. Perceptions, 22(4):135–60.
• Kroeber, C., Gall, C. and Dingler, S. C. (2021). How Individuals’ Social Characteristics Impact the Likelihood to Waste a Vote – Evidence from Great Britain, Germany and France. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 31(3):388–407. doi: 10.1080/17457289.2020.1718155.
• Küçükcan, Talip. (2011). Avrupa’da Yaşayan Türkler: Yaz Tatili Döneminde Türkiye’ye Gelen Türkler Örneği. Ankara: Yurtdışı Türkler ve Akraba Topluluklar Başkanlığı.
• Lacroix, T. (2013). Collective Remittances and Integration: North African and North Indian Comparative Perspectives. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 39(6):1019–35. doi: 10.1080/1369183X.2013.765667.
• Lafleur, J. M. (2011). Why Do States Enfranchise Citizens Abroad? Comparative Insights from Mexico, Italy and Belgium. Global Networks, 11(4):481–501. doi: 10.1111/j.1471-0374.2011.00332.x.
• Lafleur, J. M. (2015). The Enfranchisement of Citizens Abroad: Variations and Explanations. Democratization, 22(5):840–60. doi: 10.1080/13510347.2014.979163.
• Lafleur, J. M. and Sánchez-Domínguez, M. (2015). The Political Choices of Emigrants Voting in Home Country Elections: A Socio-Political Analysis of the Electoral Behaviour of Bolivian External Voters. Migration Studies, vol. 3, no. 2, July: 155–81.
• Levitt, P. (2001). Transnational Migration: Taking Stock and Future Directions. Global Networks, 1(3):195–216. doi: 10.1111/1471-0374.00013.
• Lodigiani, M. (2018). Turks in Germany: An Evaluation of Socioeconomic Integration. Colloquium: The Political Science Journal of Boston College, (2)1: 20–31.
• Margheritis, A. (2015). Migration governance across regions: State-diaspora relations in the Latin America-Southern Europe Corridor. Routledge.
• McDonald, R. I., and Crandall, C. S. (2015). Social Norms and Social Influence. Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences, 3:147–51. doi: 10.1016/J.COBEHA.2015.04.006.
• McFadden, S. W. (2019). German Citizenship Law and the Turkish Diaspora. German Law Journal, 20(1):72–88. doi: 10.1017/glj.2019.7.
• Moritz, O. (2010). Türklerin Alman Toplumuna Entegrasyonu: Türkler Paralel Toplumlar mı Oluşturacak, Doğru Bir Entegrasyon mu Gerçekleştirecek? [The Integration of The Turks into German Society: Turks On Their Way To Parallel Societies Or To True Integration?]. Bilge Strateji, vol. 2, no. 3: 165–92.
• Mügge, L., Kranendonk, M., Vermeulen, F., and Aydemir, N. (2021). Migrant votes ‘here’ and ‘there’: Transnational electoral behaviour of Turks in the Netherlands. Migration Studies, 9(3), 400–422. https://doi.org/10.1093/migration/mnz034
• Niimi, Y.; Ozden, C.; Schiff, M. (2010). Remittances and the Brain Drain: Skilled Migrants Do Remit Less. Annals of Economics and Statistics, no. 97/98, 2010, p. 123, doi:10.2307/41219112.
• Nohlen, D. and Grotz, F. (2000). External Voting: Legal Framework and Overview of Electoral Legislation. Boletín Mexicano de Derecho Comparado, 33(99):1115–45.
• NTV, (2009). Almanya’daki Türkler Dönmek İstiyor. https://www.ntv.com.tr/dunya/almanyadaki-turkler-donmek-istiyor,4rGGmRk72k-m7Y0vOY9cKw
• Otjes, S., Stroebe, K. and Postmes, T. (2020). When Voting Becomes Protest: Mapping Determinants of Collective Action onto Voting Behavior. Social Psychological and Personality Science, 11(4):513–21. doi: 10.1177/1948550619872482
• Pollack, D., Müller, O. Rosta, G. and Dieler, A. (2016). Integration and Religion as Seen by People of Turkish Origin in Germany. University of Munster.
• Ragazzi, F. (2014). A Comparative Analysis of Diaspora Policies. Political Geography, 41:74–89. doi: 10.1016/j.polgeo.2013.12.004.
• Resende-Santos, J. (2016). Cape Verde: Rethinking Diaspora in Development Policy. International Migration, 54(2):82–97. doi: 10.1111/imig.12212.
• Rhodes, S. and Harutyunyan, A. (2010). Extending Citizenship to Emigrants: Democratic Contestation and a New Global Norm. International Political Science Review, 31(4):470–93. doi: 10.1177/0192512110374044.
• Rosca, A. (2019). The Political Voice of Diaspora: An Analysis of External Voting of Moldovan Migrants. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research, vol. 6, no. 1, Mar. doi: doi:10.15549/jeecar.v6i1.247
• Şahin-Mencütek, Z. and Erdoğan, M. (2016). The Implementation of Voting from Abroad: Evidence from the 2014 Turkish Presidential Election. International Migration, 54(3):173–86. doi: 10.1111/imig.12229.
• Schoen, H. and Schumann, S. (2007). Personality Traits, Partisan Attitudes, and Voting Behavior. Evidence from Germany. Political Psychology, 28(4):471–98.
• Schulte-Cloos, J. and Leininger, A. (2022). Electoral Participation, Political Disaffection, and the Rise of the Populist Radical Right. Party Politics, 28(3):431–43. doi: 10.1177/1354068820985186.
• Sevi, Se., Mekik, C. S., Blais, A. and Çakır, S. (2020). How Do Turks Abroad Vote?. Turkish Studies 21(2):208–30. doi:10.1080/14683849.2019.1607311.
• Sirkeci, İ., Cohen, J. H. and Yazgan, P. (2012). 1980 and 2009, Germany Received 412,598 Asylum Applications from Turkish Citizens. Migration Letters, 9(1):33–46.
• Söhn, J. and Özcan, V. (2006). The Educational Attainment of Turkish Migrants in Germany. Turkish Studies, 7(1):101–24. doi:10.1080/14683840500520626.
• Spoonley, P., Bedford, R. and Macpherson, C. (2003). Divided Loyalties and Fractured Sovereignty: Transnationalism and the Nation-State in Aotearoa/New Zealand. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 29(1):27–46. doi: 10.1080/1369183032000076704.
• Statista (2016). A Turkish-German View on Good Integration. https://www.statista.com/chart/5620/integration-immigrants-germany, accessed 10.04.2022.
• Şen, F. (2003). The Historical Situation of Turkish Migrants in Germany. Immigrants & Minorities, vol. 22, no. 2–3, July 2003, pp. 208–27, doi:10.1080/0261928042000244835.
• Tınç, T. (2021). Divided Community with Identity Problems. https://www.dandc.eu/en/article/people-germany-turkish-roots-have-identity-problems-situation-fuelled-turkish-president, accessed 15.04.2022.
• TNS Emnid. (2016). A Turkish-German View on Good Integration. https://www.statista.com/chart/5620/integration-immigrants-germany accessed 10.02.2022.
• Turcu, A. and Urbatsch, R. (2015). Diffusion of Diaspora Enfranchisement Norms. Comparative Political Studies, 48(4):407–37. doi: 10.1177/0010414014546331.
• Turcu, A. and Urbatsch, R. (2021). Aversion to Far-Left Parties among Europeans Voting Abroad. Comparative European Politics, 19(1):117–38. doi: 10.1057/s41295-020-00225-2.
• Turkish Employment Agency (İŞKUR). (2011). From Past to Present. https://media.iskur.gov.tr/21271/dundenbuguneiskur.pdf
• Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK). (2018) Turkey Parlamentary Election Results 2018. https://www.tuik.gov.tr Ulusoy, E. 2016. Diasporayı Yeniden Düşünmek: Diaspora Teorisi ve Tarihsel Bağlamda Türkiye’nin Diaspora Politikası. Ankara: PEGEM Akademi.
• Webster, S. W. and Pierce. A. W. (2019). Older, Younger, or More Similar? The Use of Age as a Voting Heuristic. Social Science Quarterly, 100(3):635–52. doi: 10.1111/ssqu.12604.
• Turkish Supreme Election Council (YSK). (2018) Parlamentary Election Results. https://www.ysk.gov.tr