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THE EFFECTS OF RISKS AND INTEREST RATE RETURN ON THE BIST BANK INDEX: 2023 TURKEY GENERAL ELECTIONS APPLICATION

Year 2024, Issue: 69, 37 - 44, 30.12.2024

Melih Kutlu

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.1362860

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effect of foreign exchange risk, market risk and interest return on the BIST Bank index return and volatility in the 2023 Turkish general elections. The research covers the period between March 13, 2023 and July 21, 2023. GJR-GARCH model was used in the study. Elections affect the banking sector returns and asymmetric volatility. The most obvious variable affecting the banking sector is exchange rate risk. The impact of negative shocks before and after the election is greater than positive shocks. This effect is not observed between two elections. This shows that political uncertainty affects the market. In the period between two elections, banking sector volatility is affected by exchange rate risk rather than past period shocks, past volatility and leverage effects.

Keywords

BIST Bank Index Volatility Exchange Rate Risk Market Risk General Elections

Ethical Statement

This study complies with Research and Publication Ethics

References

  • Ayaydın, H. ve Dağlı, H. (2012). Gelişen Piyasalarda Hisse Senedi Getirisini Etkileyen Makroekonomik Değişkenler Üzerine Bir İnceleme: Panel Veri Analizi, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 26(3-4), 45-65.
  • Ada, S. S., Bolak, M. ve Süer, Ö. (2013). Politik Seçimler, Referandumlar ve Hisse Senedi Getirileri: İMKB Örneği, 50 (579), 23-40.
  • Aktaş, M. ve Akdağ, S. Türkiye’de Ekonomik Faktörlerin Hisse Senedi Fiyatları ile İlişkilerinin Araştırılması, International Journal Social Science Research, 2(2), 50-67.
  • Alper, D. ve Kara, E. (2017). Borsa İstanbul’da Hisse Senedi Getirilerini Etkileyen Makroekonomik Faktörler: BİST Sınai Endeksi Üzerine Bir Araştırma. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 22(3), 713-730.
  • Almahadin, H. A., ve Tuna, G. (2019). Dynamic impact of interest rate volatility and spillover effect of the US interest rate on banking sector development of Turkey: empirical evidence from cointegration and causality analysis. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting ve Economics, 26(5), 577-588.
  • Altınbaş, H., Kutay, N. ve Akkaya, G. C. (2015). Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(2), 30-49.
  • Black F. (1976). Studies of Stock Price Volatility Changes. Proceedings of the Business and Economics Section of the American Statistical Association, 177-181.
  • Bollerslev T. (1986), Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, Journal of Econometrics, 31, 307-327.
  • Chen, N.F., Roll, R. ve Ross A. Stephen (1986). Economic Forces and the Stock Market, 59(3), 383-403.
  • Chen, S.S. (2006). Revisiting the interest rate–exchange rate nexus: a Markov-switching approach, Journal of Development Economics, 79, 208-224.
  • Dickey, D. A., ve Fuller, W. A. (1979), Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Journal of the American Statistical Association,74(366), 427-431.
  • Diebold, F. X., ve Yilmaz, K. (2012). Better to Give than to Receive: Predictive Directional Measurement of Volatility Spillovers. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(1), 57-66.
  • Ekinci, A. (2016). The Effect of Credit and Market Risk on Bank Performance: Evidence from Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 6(2), 427-434.
  • Ekinci, A. ve Türkoğlu, D. (2022). Faiz ve Kur Riskinin Borsa İstanbul Alt Endeks Getirilerine Etkisi, Bankacılar Dergisi, 33 (123), 18-30.
  • Engle, R.F. (1982). Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of U.K. Inflation. Econometrica, 50, 987–1008.
  • Fama, E (1981). Stock returns, real activity , inflation and money. American Economic Review, 71(4), 545-565.
  • Fama, E. F. (1990). Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity, The Journal of Finance, 45(4), 1089-1108.
  • Fausta, J., Rogersa, J. H., Wang, S. B. ve Wright, J. H. (2007). The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements, Journal of Monetary Economics, 54, 1051-1068.
  • Ferrer, R., Bolos, V.J. ve Benitez, R. (2016). Interest rate changes and stock returns: A European multi-country study with wavelets, International Review of Economics and Finance, 44, 1-12.
  • Glosten, L.R., R. Jagannathan ve Runkle D. (1993). On the Relation Between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks, Journal of Finance, (48), 1779-1801.
  • Goodell, J. W. ve Vahamaa, S. (2013). US presidential elections and implied volatility: The role of political uncertainty, Journal of Banking ve Finance, 37, 1108-1117.
  • Hepsağ, A., ve Akçalı, Y. B. (2016). Analysis of Volatility Spillovers Between the Bank Stocks Traded In Istanbul Stock Exchange and New York Stock Exchange. Eurasian Econometrics, Statistics ve Emprical Economics Journal, 1, 54-72.
  • Ho, L-C. ve Huang, C-H. (2015). The nonlinear relationships between stock indexes and exchange rates, Japan and the World Economy, 33, 20-27.
  • Husain, F. ve Mahmood, T. (2001).The stock market and the economy in Pakistan, The Pakistan Development Review, 40 (2), 107–114.
  • Jebran, K. ve Iqbal, A. (2016). Dynamics of volatility spillover between stock market and foreign exchange market: evidence from Asian Countries, Financial Innovation, 2(3), 1-20.
  • Jones, S.T ve Banning, K. (2009). US elections and monthly stock market returns, J. Econ Finan, 33, 273-287.
  • Karaca, S. V., Çütçü, İ. ve Özkök, Y. (2022). Seçili Makroekonomik Değişkenler ile Borsa İstanbul Endeksi Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği, Alanya Academic Review Journal, 6(3), 2913-2927.
  • Kasman, S., Vardar, S. ve Tunç, G. (2011). The impact of interest rate and exchange rate volatility on banks' stock returns and volatility: Evidence from Turkey, Economic Modelling, 28, 1328-1334.
  • Katechos, G. (2011). On the relationship between exchange rates and equity returns: A new approach, Int. Fin. Markets, Inst. and Money, 21, 550-559.
  • Koy, A. ve Ekim, S. (2016). Borsa İstanbul Sektör Endekslerinin Volatilite Modellemesi. Trakya Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 5 (2), 1-23
  • Kumar, M. (2013). Returns and volatility spillover between stock prices and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from IBSA countries. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 8(2), 108-128.
  • Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C.B., Schmidt, P., ve Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159–178.
  • Levine, R. (1997) Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda, Journal Of Economic Literature, 35, 688-726.
  • Lin, C. (2012). The comovement between exchange rates and stock prices in the Asian emerging markets, International Review of Economics and Finance, 22, 161-172.
  • Mandacı, P. E. (2003). İMKB’de Genel Seçimler Öncesi ve Sonrasında Anormal Fiyat Hareketleri, İMKB Dergisi, 7(27), 1-16.
  • Mnasri, A. ve Essaddam, N. (2021). Impact of U.S. presidential elections on stock markets’ volatility: Does incumbent president’s party matter? Finance Research Letters, 39, 1-5.
  • Muradoğlu, G., Taşkın, F. ve Bigan, İ. (2000), Causality between Stock Returns and Macroeconomic Variables in Emerging Markets, Russian ve East European Finance and Trade, 36(6), 33-53.
  • Özmen, M., Karlılar, S ve Kıral, G. (2017). Türkiye İçin Döviz Kuru, Faiz ve Enflasyonun Hisse Senedi Getirileri Üzerine Etkileri, Çukurova Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 21(1), 107-120.
  • Özün, A. ve Çifter, A. (2006). Bankaların Hisse Senedi Getirilerinde Faiz Oranı Riski: Dalgacıklar Analizi ile Türk Bankacılık Sektörü Üzerine Bir Uygulama, Bankacılar Dergisi, 59, 3-15.
  • Pantzalis, C., Stangeland, D.A. ve Turtle, H. J. (2000). Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence. Journal of Banking ve Finance, 24, 1575-1604.
  • Phillips, P.C.B., ve Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regressions. Biometrika, 75, 335–346.
  • Sönmez, Y., Baydaş, Y. ve Kılıç, E. (2023). Cds Primleri İle Seçili Bıst Endeksleri Arasındaki Volatilite Yayılımı, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 64, 29-34.
  • Şenol, Z. ve Koç, S. (2022). Borsa, Faiz, Döviz Kuru, Altın, Petrol Ve Bitcoin Arasındaki Volatilite Yayılımları, Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 35, 31-46.
  • Titman, S. ve Warga, A. (1989). Stock Returns as Predictors of Interest Rates and Inflation, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 24(1), 47-58.
  • Yılmaz, Y. ve Elmas, B. (2019). Politik Seçim Tarihleri Etrafında Anormal Getiri Hareketleri: Borsa İstanbul Örneği, EKEV Akademi Dergisi, 23(80), 569-582.

RİSKLERİN VE FAİZ GETİRİSİNİN BİST BANKA ENDEKSİNE ETKİLERİ: 2023 TÜRKİYE GENEL SEÇİMLERİ UYGULAMASI

Year 2024, Issue: 69, 37 - 44, 30.12.2024

Melih Kutlu

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.1362860

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı 2023 Türkiye genel seçimlerinde döviz riski, piyasa riski ve faiz getirisinin BİST Banka endeksi getiri ve volatilitesine asimetrik etkisini araştırmaktır. Araştırma 13 Mart 2023 ve 21 Temmuz 2023 arası dönemini kapsamaktadır. Çalışmada GJR-GARCH modeli kullanılmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgulara göre seçimler bankacılık sektörü getiri ve asimetrik volatilitesini etkilemektedir. Bankacılık sektörünü etkileyen en belirgin değişken döviz kuru riskidir. Seçim öncesi ve sonrası negatif şokların etkisi pozitif şoklardan daha fazladır. İki seçim arası dönemde ise bu etki gözlemlenmemiştir. Bu durum siyasi belirsizliğin piyasayı etkilediğini göstermektedir. İki seçim arası dönemde bankacılık sektörü volatilitesi geçmiş dönem şokları, geçmiş dönem volatilitesi ve kaldıraç etkisinden ziyade döviz kuru riskinden etkilenmiştir.

Keywords

BİST Banka Endeksi Volatilite Döviz Kuru Riski Piyasa Riski Genel Seçimler

Ethical Statement

Bu çalışma Araştırma ve Yayın Etiğine uymaktadır

References

  • Ayaydın, H. ve Dağlı, H. (2012). Gelişen Piyasalarda Hisse Senedi Getirisini Etkileyen Makroekonomik Değişkenler Üzerine Bir İnceleme: Panel Veri Analizi, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 26(3-4), 45-65.
  • Ada, S. S., Bolak, M. ve Süer, Ö. (2013). Politik Seçimler, Referandumlar ve Hisse Senedi Getirileri: İMKB Örneği, 50 (579), 23-40.
  • Aktaş, M. ve Akdağ, S. Türkiye’de Ekonomik Faktörlerin Hisse Senedi Fiyatları ile İlişkilerinin Araştırılması, International Journal Social Science Research, 2(2), 50-67.
  • Alper, D. ve Kara, E. (2017). Borsa İstanbul’da Hisse Senedi Getirilerini Etkileyen Makroekonomik Faktörler: BİST Sınai Endeksi Üzerine Bir Araştırma. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 22(3), 713-730.
  • Almahadin, H. A., ve Tuna, G. (2019). Dynamic impact of interest rate volatility and spillover effect of the US interest rate on banking sector development of Turkey: empirical evidence from cointegration and causality analysis. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting ve Economics, 26(5), 577-588.
  • Altınbaş, H., Kutay, N. ve Akkaya, G. C. (2015). Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(2), 30-49.
  • Black F. (1976). Studies of Stock Price Volatility Changes. Proceedings of the Business and Economics Section of the American Statistical Association, 177-181.
  • Bollerslev T. (1986), Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, Journal of Econometrics, 31, 307-327.
  • Chen, N.F., Roll, R. ve Ross A. Stephen (1986). Economic Forces and the Stock Market, 59(3), 383-403.
  • Chen, S.S. (2006). Revisiting the interest rate–exchange rate nexus: a Markov-switching approach, Journal of Development Economics, 79, 208-224.
  • Dickey, D. A., ve Fuller, W. A. (1979), Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Journal of the American Statistical Association,74(366), 427-431.
  • Diebold, F. X., ve Yilmaz, K. (2012). Better to Give than to Receive: Predictive Directional Measurement of Volatility Spillovers. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(1), 57-66.
  • Ekinci, A. (2016). The Effect of Credit and Market Risk on Bank Performance: Evidence from Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 6(2), 427-434.
  • Ekinci, A. ve Türkoğlu, D. (2022). Faiz ve Kur Riskinin Borsa İstanbul Alt Endeks Getirilerine Etkisi, Bankacılar Dergisi, 33 (123), 18-30.
  • Engle, R.F. (1982). Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of U.K. Inflation. Econometrica, 50, 987–1008.
  • Fama, E (1981). Stock returns, real activity , inflation and money. American Economic Review, 71(4), 545-565.
  • Fama, E. F. (1990). Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity, The Journal of Finance, 45(4), 1089-1108.
  • Fausta, J., Rogersa, J. H., Wang, S. B. ve Wright, J. H. (2007). The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements, Journal of Monetary Economics, 54, 1051-1068.
  • Ferrer, R., Bolos, V.J. ve Benitez, R. (2016). Interest rate changes and stock returns: A European multi-country study with wavelets, International Review of Economics and Finance, 44, 1-12.
  • Glosten, L.R., R. Jagannathan ve Runkle D. (1993). On the Relation Between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks, Journal of Finance, (48), 1779-1801.
  • Goodell, J. W. ve Vahamaa, S. (2013). US presidential elections and implied volatility: The role of political uncertainty, Journal of Banking ve Finance, 37, 1108-1117.
  • Hepsağ, A., ve Akçalı, Y. B. (2016). Analysis of Volatility Spillovers Between the Bank Stocks Traded In Istanbul Stock Exchange and New York Stock Exchange. Eurasian Econometrics, Statistics ve Emprical Economics Journal, 1, 54-72.
  • Ho, L-C. ve Huang, C-H. (2015). The nonlinear relationships between stock indexes and exchange rates, Japan and the World Economy, 33, 20-27.
  • Husain, F. ve Mahmood, T. (2001).The stock market and the economy in Pakistan, The Pakistan Development Review, 40 (2), 107–114.
  • Jebran, K. ve Iqbal, A. (2016). Dynamics of volatility spillover between stock market and foreign exchange market: evidence from Asian Countries, Financial Innovation, 2(3), 1-20.
  • Jones, S.T ve Banning, K. (2009). US elections and monthly stock market returns, J. Econ Finan, 33, 273-287.
  • Karaca, S. V., Çütçü, İ. ve Özkök, Y. (2022). Seçili Makroekonomik Değişkenler ile Borsa İstanbul Endeksi Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği, Alanya Academic Review Journal, 6(3), 2913-2927.
  • Kasman, S., Vardar, S. ve Tunç, G. (2011). The impact of interest rate and exchange rate volatility on banks' stock returns and volatility: Evidence from Turkey, Economic Modelling, 28, 1328-1334.
  • Katechos, G. (2011). On the relationship between exchange rates and equity returns: A new approach, Int. Fin. Markets, Inst. and Money, 21, 550-559.
  • Koy, A. ve Ekim, S. (2016). Borsa İstanbul Sektör Endekslerinin Volatilite Modellemesi. Trakya Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 5 (2), 1-23
  • Kumar, M. (2013). Returns and volatility spillover between stock prices and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from IBSA countries. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 8(2), 108-128.
  • Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C.B., Schmidt, P., ve Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159–178.
  • Levine, R. (1997) Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda, Journal Of Economic Literature, 35, 688-726.
  • Lin, C. (2012). The comovement between exchange rates and stock prices in the Asian emerging markets, International Review of Economics and Finance, 22, 161-172.
  • Mandacı, P. E. (2003). İMKB’de Genel Seçimler Öncesi ve Sonrasında Anormal Fiyat Hareketleri, İMKB Dergisi, 7(27), 1-16.
  • Mnasri, A. ve Essaddam, N. (2021). Impact of U.S. presidential elections on stock markets’ volatility: Does incumbent president’s party matter? Finance Research Letters, 39, 1-5.
  • Muradoğlu, G., Taşkın, F. ve Bigan, İ. (2000), Causality between Stock Returns and Macroeconomic Variables in Emerging Markets, Russian ve East European Finance and Trade, 36(6), 33-53.
  • Özmen, M., Karlılar, S ve Kıral, G. (2017). Türkiye İçin Döviz Kuru, Faiz ve Enflasyonun Hisse Senedi Getirileri Üzerine Etkileri, Çukurova Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 21(1), 107-120.
  • Özün, A. ve Çifter, A. (2006). Bankaların Hisse Senedi Getirilerinde Faiz Oranı Riski: Dalgacıklar Analizi ile Türk Bankacılık Sektörü Üzerine Bir Uygulama, Bankacılar Dergisi, 59, 3-15.
  • Pantzalis, C., Stangeland, D.A. ve Turtle, H. J. (2000). Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence. Journal of Banking ve Finance, 24, 1575-1604.
  • Phillips, P.C.B., ve Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regressions. Biometrika, 75, 335–346.
  • Sönmez, Y., Baydaş, Y. ve Kılıç, E. (2023). Cds Primleri İle Seçili Bıst Endeksleri Arasındaki Volatilite Yayılımı, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 64, 29-34.
  • Şenol, Z. ve Koç, S. (2022). Borsa, Faiz, Döviz Kuru, Altın, Petrol Ve Bitcoin Arasındaki Volatilite Yayılımları, Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 35, 31-46.
  • Titman, S. ve Warga, A. (1989). Stock Returns as Predictors of Interest Rates and Inflation, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 24(1), 47-58.
  • Yılmaz, Y. ve Elmas, B. (2019). Politik Seçim Tarihleri Etrafında Anormal Getiri Hareketleri: Borsa İstanbul Örneği, EKEV Akademi Dergisi, 23(80), 569-582.
There are 45 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Finance
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Melih Kutlu 0000-0002-8634-6330

Early Pub Date December 27, 2024
Publication Date December 30, 2024
Acceptance Date August 15, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024 Issue: 69

Cite

APA Kutlu, M. (2024). RİSKLERİN VE FAİZ GETİRİSİNİN BİST BANKA ENDEKSİNE ETKİLERİ: 2023 TÜRKİYE GENEL SEÇİMLERİ UYGULAMASI. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(69), 37-44. https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.1362860
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